duncan mackie
Money List Winner
Question: When we switch over to WHS, what will golfers generally find their handicap changes by, if at all? The reason I ask, is that I had an initial expectation, but since looking at the formula and processing 28 golfers from my club so far, it looks like I was wrong.
My initial expectation: The Handicap Index would effectively replace your CONGU handicap, and in general be fairly closely matched. Then depending on whether you played at an easier or harder course than the average, your Course Handicap would go down or up accordingly.
However, this might be true if the Index was only based on the gross score difference with CR. However, it is "desloped" by multiplying by 113/Slope. Given that most slope ratings are over 113 (in Lincolnshire anyway), then this will virtually always be a number less than 1. So, at my course with a slope of 133, the difference between the best 8 gross compared to CR out of the last 20 are averaged, then multiplied by 113/133 (i.e. 0.85, or 85%). However, this is then "resloped" again when working out the course handicap by multiplying by Slope / 113 (133/113). So, your course handicap is effectively your "unsloped" Course Index.
So, with WHS, which of the 3 handicaps (Index, Course, Playing - Singles Stroke) will be most comparable with your CONGU handicap? We will probably need to assume we are talking about golfers who play most of their CONGU qualifying rounds at the same course. Here is what I found with the 28 golfers at my course (looked at a range of CONGU handicaps from 4.9 to 28.8):
Index: Average Difference of -1.5 shots compared to CONGU, or 89.6% of CONGU
Course: Average Difference of +0.8 shots compared to CONGU, or 105.5% of CONGU
Playing: Average Difference of 0.0 shots compared to CONGU, or 100.2% of CONGU - Note: This assumed for singles strokeplay, and therefore 95% or Course Handicap
So, what this seems, or might conclude, is that:
It is the Playing Handicap (Singles Strokeplay) with WHS that will generally most likely replicate your CONGU handicap
In singles match play, where you use Course handicap (and not 95%), the higher handicapper in that match will get more of a benefit with WHS in comparison to CONGU (note, when I say advantage I only mean in terms of CONGU, not in relation to fairness)
If a golfer does go to a course with a higher slope, they genuinely will have more of an advantage in relation to CONGU, as their course handicap will increase compared to their home course. However, the difference will generally be subtle, will depend on where the decimal point lies and how low or high a handicap the player has. So, lower handicappers may see no benefit, with no increase to handicap (unless their own course handicap was x.4ish and close to going up), whereas higher handicappers are more likely to see their course / playing handicap increase at a harder course
Would this seem to be a reasonable summary?
The stated expectations (at some point in some document) were that handicap indexes will increase on average in proportion to current handicap levels by under 10% from established CONGU levels. Vaguely remember an estimate of 1.5 shots increase for a bogey golfer.
This is purely arithmetically based on the difference between the bell curves across current calculations moving to 8/20 average basis.
Everything else is subsequent to that, based on other elements/factors.