Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Fade and Die]

I think the scale of the defeat will show the EU and May that no amount of fettling will get this deal through. Both groups of supporters cheering outside parliament when it was defeated should be a clue to how bad it was!

There is only two possible outcomes now....

1) postpone art 50, get a 3rd vote to get Brexit reversed and hope that the 17Mil who voted out last time have had enough or lost faith in the system and either vote differently or not at all.

2) A hard Brexit then do deals as we need them

I think the first option is a slap in the face for democracy and it relies on the 17 Mil going away quietly which I don’t think will happen. The 2nd option....ripping the plaster off will hurt short term but I think deals will be done swiftly and as a country we can reconcile and move forward.

 

[Tashyboy]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46887188

As Mr Churchill once said, you cannot negotiate with your head in a lions mouth or summat like that. You have sent Missis May back to Parliment with a crap deal. "If a deal is impossible", as you say. Then there should be no deal. End of story.

 

[Hacker Khan]

I think the scale of the defeat will show the EU and May that no amount of fettling will get this deal through. Both groups of supporters cheering outside parliament when it was defeated should be a clue to how bad it was!

There is only two possible outcomes now....

1) postpone art 50, get a 3rd vote to get Brexit reversed and hope that the 17Mil who voted out last time have had enough or lost faith in the system and either vote differently or not at all.

2) A hard Brexit then do deals as we need them

I think the first option is a slap in the face for democracy and it relies on the 17 Mil going away quietly which I don’t think will happen. The 2nd option....ripping the plaster off will hurt short term but I think deals will be done swiftly and as a country we can reconcile and move forward.

Or there is an argument made by some that if there is a second referendum and the options are no deal or stay in then that would be clear what everyone is voting on and the consequences. Plus there seems to be an assumption that stay would win but I am not so sure.

And postponing article 50 does not necessarily mean a second vote, we can postpone and give us more time to get a consensus. There is talk today of all the chairs of committees getting a greater say which I'd like to see. I'm not sure why the government did not take this approach 2 years ago and realise that after such a relatively small margin of victory that consensus was needed to progress, instead of pandering to people like the ERG. As I feel if we did that we'd be in a better place now to get a deal.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Not sure that Remain should be an option on a new referendum, if we need one at all. The original vote was to leave. The issue now is how we leave, not whether we leave. That decision has already been made.

 

[Fade and Die]

Or there is an argument made by some that if there is a second referendum and the options are no deal or stay in then that would be clear what everyone is voting on and the consequences. Plus there seems to be an assumption that stay would win but I am not so sure.

And postponing article 50 does not necessarily mean a second vote, we can postpone and give us more time to get a consensus. There is talk today of all the chairs of committees getting a greater say which I'd like to see. I'm not sure why the government did not take this approach 2 years ago and realise that after such a relatively small margin of victory that consensus was needed to progress, instead of pandering to people like the ERG. As I feel if we did that we'd be in a better place now to get a deal.

Re your 2nd paragraph, I don’t think an agreement would be reached if they discussed it for another year! Mays deal reflected the referendum perfectly, it was roughly 52% leave and 48% remain. Unfortunately that doesn’t satisfy anyone and if she moves closer to either camp the other side will resist.

She has a huge mandate to leave through the notification of withdrawal act (498-114) and the act allows for us to leave with no deal if a deal cannot be negotiated. In my view it would be better for everyone just to pull the plaster off.

 

[Deleted Member 1156]

My understanding is that if we go with no deal we don't have to pay the divorce bill (39 billion) so yes there would be short term pain but would that money be enough to smooth the waters and help out the suffering businesses until we sign up other trade deals?

 

[Colonel Bogey]

What deal would Parliament agree to? For me it would have to be :-
1. We'll give you no money, nothing AT ALL !!!!!
2. Removal of all tariffs. Think of all the cheap wine we would be able to sell from NZ/Aus/Chile et al and send all the muck from France/Italy/Spain back. (I don't buy any from these counties and Portuguese is hard to find so no bother).
3. All immigrants picked up in the channel will be returned to France/ Europe. Well...you're better than anyone aren't you?
4. All current trading deals for goods between us and you to be kept the same.

That'll do nicely.

 

[Colonel Bogey]

My understanding is that if we go with no deal we don't have to pay the divorce bill (39 billion) so yes there would be short term pain but would that money be enough to smooth the waters and help out the suffering businesses until we sign up other trade deals?

Top reason to have no deal

 

[hors limite]

I think the scale of the defeat will show the EU and May that no amount of fettling will get this deal through. Both groups of supporters cheering outside parliament when it was defeated should be a clue to how bad it was!

There is only two possible outcomes now....

1) postpone art 50, get a 3rd vote to get Brexit reversed and hope that the 17Mil who voted out last time have had enough or lost faith in the system and either vote differently or not at all.

2) A hard Brexit then do deals as we need them

I think the first option is a slap in the face for democracy and it relies on the 17 Mil going away quietly which I don’t think will happen. The 2nd option....ripping the plaster off will hurt short term but I think deals will be done swiftly and as a country we can reconcile and move forward.[/Q

I think the scale of the defeat will show the EU and May that no amount of fettling will get this deal through. Both groups of supporters cheering outside parliament when it was defeated should be a clue to how bad it was!

There is only two possible outcomes now....

1) postpone art 50, get a 3rd vote to get Brexit reversed and hope that the 17Mil who voted out last time have had enough or lost faith in the system and either vote differently or not at all.

2) A hard Brexit then do deals as we need them

I think the first option is a slap in the face for democracy and it relies on the 17 Mil going away quietly which I don’t think will happen. The 2nd option....ripping the plaster off will hurt short term but I think deals will be done swiftly and as a country we can reconcile and move forward.

I am at ease with Leavers continuing wish to leave. I am less comfortable with statements like " a slap in the face for democracy". Democracy wasn't put on hold when the referendum took place. To pretend that to leave with no deal reflects in any way what was promised is dishonest. If there was another vote the 17.4 million would be just as free as anyone else to vote to confirm their original opinion. I think that Leavers fear of a second vote is transparent. There is no principle involved, it's simply that they are frightened that they might lose.

 

[Beezerk]

I am at ease with Leavers continuing wish to leave. I am less comfortable with statements like " a slap in the face for democracy". Democracy wasn't put on hold when the referendum took place. To pretend that to leave with no deal reflects in any way what was promised is dishonest. If there was another vote the 17.4 million would be just as free as anyone else to vote to confirm their original opinion. I think that Leavers fear of a second vote is transparent. There is no principle involved, it's simply that they are frightened that they might lose.

To be honest mate, I don’t think a lot of people cared how we left, they knew it would be messy and just wanted out.
All this “we know the facts now” is just remainer bluster, desperation if you will to try and get the result they voted for.
As for me, I’m resigned to the fact we won’t be leaving, the signs have been there for over a year and we’ve been slowly drip fed project fear until there’s a point, like now, where another referendum is almost expected.

 

[Hacker Khan]

My understanding is that if we go with no deal we don't have to pay the divorce bill (39 billion) so yes there would be short term pain but would that money be enough to smooth the waters and help out the suffering businesses until we sign up other trade deals?

Again I would go back to the argument that if we have stiffed the EU for the 39 billion then how credible a trading partner would be be, or more accurately how favourable would the terms be for us in any future deals in a world that is becoming more protectionist? If you look at it purely in pounds and euros it may make sense, I doubt it but I have absolutely no evidence as I have no idea of the immediate losses there would be. But as the old saying goes, price of everything, value of nothing.

 

[Hacker Khan]

To be honest mate, I don’t think a lot of people cared how we left, they knew it would be messy and just wanted out.
All this “we know the facts now” is just remainer bluster, desperation if you will to try and get the result they voted for.
As for me, I’m resigned to the fact we won’t be leaving, the signs have been there for over a year and we’ve been slowly drip fed project fear until there’s a point, like now, where another referendum is almost expected.

I suppose there is an argument to say they, indeed everyone who voted should have cared or been given a bit more information as that is critical to our future well being both economically and socially? Which is kind of what is causing so much pain now.

You could argue we are now at project fear in terms of the projections. If at the time it was pointed out that leave meant just cutting ourselves off with no deal, potential hard border with Ireland etc etc then there would have been a cacophony of 'project fear', in reality it is the easiest trade deal etc etc. But essentially it is increasingly looking like that is where we are now if we want to leave. Would 17 million still have voted to leave if they know that? Who knows, may be yes but I think that is what the remainers are concerned about.

 

[MegaSteve]

Again I would go back to the argument that if we have stiffed the EU for the 39 billion then how credible a trading partner would be be, or more accurately how favourable would the terms be for us in any future deals in a world that is becoming more protectionist? If you look at it purely in pounds and euros it may make sense, I doubt it but I have absolutely no evidence as I have no idea of the immediate losses there would be. But as the old saying goes, price of everything, value of nothing.

Not sure we've 'stiffed' the EU... Rather they've declined to negotiate an acceptable deal in return for our hard earnt...

 

[MegaSteve]

I suppose there is an argument to say they, indeed everyone who voted should have cared or been given a bit more information as that is critical to our future well being both economically and socially? Which is kind of what is causing so much pain now.

You could argue we are now at project fear in terms of the projections. If at the time it was pointed out that leave meant just cutting ourselves off with no deal, potential hard border with Ireland etc etc then there would have been a cacophony of 'project fear', in reality it is the easiest trade deal etc etc. But essentially it is increasingly looking like that is where we are now if we want to leave. Would 17 million still have voted to leave if they know that? Who knows, may be yes but I think that is what the remainers are concerned about.

I suppose there is also an argument that some thought should have been given to the growing concerns/animosity about being taken deeper into the clutches of Brussels... Too many decisions being taken without any reference to the person on the street...

 

[Hacker Khan]

Not sure we've 'stiffed' the EU... Rather they've declined to negotiate an acceptable deal in return for our hard earnt...

Depends how its spun really, no doubt there will be the UKs way and also the EUs way.

 

[Hacker Khan]

I suppose there is also an argument that some thought should have been given to the growing concerns/animosity about being taken deeper into the clutches of Brussels... Too many decisions being taken without any reference to the person on the street...

I'd agree and you could say the referendum was a result of the fears of some of the increasing concerns over the EU. And there was a majority to leave in some form. But I'd also say they made a really crappy job of the process both before and certainly after it. And should we be stuck with the consequences of a really poor process if there is a clear majority in parliament to avoid a no deal? Difficult one.

I suspect if we do crash out with a hard brexit (or leave on favourable WTO terms if you prefer that wording) than that will poison the Tories for a few years and ruin their reputation as being trusted on the economy. As I'm not convinced that many people will want to put up with some real short term economic and social pain for alleged long term gain. Labour will do all they can to say they did not want this and it is the Tories fault. Labour, hopefully without Corbyn, will then win the next general election on a manifesto of another referendum to come back in. And so the cycle will continue.....

 

[Beezerk]

So using an eu referendum as a carrot for future general elections?
How pathetic.
Of the system not you 😁

 

[oxymoron]

Or there is an argument made by some that if there is a second referendum and the options are no deal or stay in then that would be clear what everyone is voting on and the consequences. Plus there seems to be an assumption that stay would win but I am not so sure.

And postponing article 50 does not necessarily mean a second vote, we can postpone and give us more time to get a consensus. There is talk today of all the chairs of committees getting a greater say which I'd like to see. I'm not sure why the government did not take this approach 2 years ago and realise that after such a relatively small margin of victory that consensus was needed to progress, instead of pandering to people like the ERG. As I feel if we did that we'd be in a better place now to get a deal.

This would only happen if the EU were upfront about its plans as well , as in confirm its desire to edge towards a federal state , control of economies and such however i cannot see that happening in a month of Sundays.

And the second referendum , well that should be a none starter or at least if we do go down that road , if i dont like the result of the next GE can i have a re-run please ? Dont see why not if others can bleat on about one vote not ending to their satisfaction , nothing like a gracefull loser is there !!!

 

[Hacker Khan]

So using an eu referendum as a carrot for future general elections?
How pathetic.
Of the system not you 😁

Or a clever political manoeuvre to get future voters on board, seeing as young voters are statistically more likely to want to be in the EU? And you could make an argument that the referendum only occurred due to internal division in the Tory party and an attempt to try and appease the more right wingers from jumping to UKIP, in the days before they went all EDL. Which to me is just as pathetic.

 

[Beezerk]

Or a clever political manoeuvre to get future voters on board.

That's right, however playing the general public against each other, specially on this topic is dodgy ground for any political party is it not. Its already been suggested that any future referendum could mean the end of democracy in this country, ie a good majority of the population becoming even more dismayed with the political set up.
There's already enough division as it is without causing further damage.
I heard a political analyst say a few months ago, any party who calls for another referendum would be committing political suicide. Is that really just as true today?