Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[drdel]

I fail to see why we're getting so exercised/surprised - it was always going to come down to this hiatus.

You ask 60m people a binary choice; spread over such a large number of subjective opinions it was always going to be within a few percent of 50:50. You then ask 600+ people (MPs) selected from the same population to take forward the result. However those MPs are members of tribal factions in HoC: mostly Labour or Conservative: numerically this means there's about 150+ MPs on each side who either agree or disagree with the original outcome. So if the Party Whips have any power at best the Government of the day can only rely on 25% being supporters ! Thus with only 150 reliable supporters the opposition vote (~300) along with the 150+ Tories against then the motion was doomed by the HoC structure.

Whether it is Theresa May or any other leader will make absolutely no difference: given that the 600+MPs are full of their own self importance (a pre-qualification for being a politician) they will hang on to their positions rather than loose face. Labour leadership wish to claim they could do better but the can't - the numbers will be against JC in the same way they stack up against TM.

Consequently there is no coherent stance with which to fight our corner. A fight where the 'partner' is a bureaucracy with the sole intent being to ensure no change to protect the flimsy base premise. Our only bet is to keep talking while moving to a WTO regime which will pressurise Brussels to bring forward into the negotiations the future trade talks which they previously and nonsensically said could not take place simultaneously. This was patent rubbish and obviously stopped any negotiating in good faith.

 

[Deleted Member 1156]

Think we all know no-deal is not a serious option given the state of this country.

Leavers had the opportunity to be out of the EU in 80 days with Mrs May's deal. I suspect they may come to regret voting it down.

I disagree, the EU deal was basically "You can leave but we will still tell you what you can and cannot do" which is a non starter in my book. No deal is a better option, switch to WTO and forge new deals with whoever we want on agreed terms.
This is turning into a game of chicken to see who backs down first.

 

[Foxholer]

I fail to see why we're getting so exercised/surprised - it was always going to come down to this hiatus.

You ask 60m people a binary choice; spread over such a large number of subjective opinions it was always going to be within a few percent of 50:50. You then ask 600+ people (MPs) selected from the same population to take forward the result. However those MPs are members of tribal factions in HoC: mostly Labour or Conservative: numerically this means there's about 150+ MPs on each side who either agree or disagree with the original outcome. So if the Party Whips have any power at best the Government of the day can only rely on 25% being supporters ! Thus with only 150 reliable supporters the opposition vote (~300) along with the 150+ Tories against then the motion was doomed by the HoC structure.

Whether it is Theresa May or any other leader will make absolutely no difference: given that the 600+MPs are full of their own self importance (a pre-qualification for being a politician) they will hang on to their positions rather than loose face. Labour leadership wish to claim they could do better but the can't - the numbers will be against JC in the same way they stack up against TM.

Consequently there is no coherent stance with which to fight our corner. A fight where the 'partner' is a bureaucracy with the sole intent being to ensure no change to protect the flimsy base premise. Our only bet is to keep talking while moving to a WTO regime which will pressurise Brussels to bring forward into the negotiations the future trade talks which they previously and nonsensically said could not take place simultaneously. This was patent rubbish and obviously stopped any negotiating in good faith.

And worth noting that most MPs, across all parties, are actually Remainers. It was only the frustration of Cameron from UKIP/'Conservative rebels' that started this process. Had he asked Parliament whether to invoke A50, rather than opting for a referendum, I'm pretty certain he'd have got a pretty strong 'No'. But that's all hypothetical.

I'm definitely moving further towards opting for 'No Deal' being the only way to get the EU to actually do a more reasonable deal - or at least commit to establishing the likes of FTA/Customs Union, common standards, Financial Passporting etc. that is so important to UK - and most of these are important to EU members too. As Socket posted, the Irish Border issue could be eliminated (it would simply disappear) by such a 'deal'.

 

[Rlburnside]

Best speech I’ve heard in this sorry state we are in is David Lammys pity more politicians are not as honest as him. If I could post a link to his speech I would.

 

[Hobbit]

Best speech I’ve heard in this sorry state we are in is David Lammys pity more politicians are not as honest as him. If I could post a link to his speech I would.

You need to broaden your net and listen to more of his speeches. He's not far behind Diane Abbott in being a racist.

For example, he was asked why he wasn't on the Labour front benches. His response, "you need to go and ask the white men on the front bench." When being interviewed about the Grenfell inquiry, "why have they appointed a straight white guy?"

He's a great orator but look beyond the odd decent speech and see what he has to offer as a whole.

 

[Dando]

Best speech I’ve heard in this sorry state we are in is David Lammys pity more politicians are not as honest as him. If I could post a link to his speech I would.

the guy is a first class clown!

 

[Rlburnside]

You need to broaden your net and listen to more of his speeches. He's not far behind Diane Abbott in being a racist.

For example, he was asked why he wasn't on the Labour front benches. His response, "you need to go and ask the white men on the front bench." When being interviewed about the Grenfell inquiry, "why have they appointed a straight white guy?"

He's a great orator but look beyond the odd decent speech and see what he has to offer as a whole.

Only heard this one speech of his and thought it was good, I'll have a look at some of his other speeches

 

[user104]

ok i`m gonna don my sandwich board ``THE END IS NIGH`` ...........BREXIT................TRUMP..............PUTIN etc

Not really ........... there has been troubled times in the past lots of em ,but i got a queezy feeling in my gizzard

 

[User62651]

ok i`m gonna don my sandwich board ``THE END IS NIGH`` ...........BREXIT................TRUMP..............PUTIN etc

Not really ........... there has been troubled times in the past lots of em ,but i got a queezy feeling in my gizzard

Dont overthink it. You're still kicking........many aren't.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Didn't she "stick the knife in" after he said he wouldn't meet until she removed No Deal? On this one I have some sympathy for May but it also reinforces what I think about Corbyn. At a time when when its clear there is no consensus in the House, it blatantly obvious that division needs to be dropped and that they need to work together.

Its been interesting to watch MEP's in Brussels speaking in the EU parliament. Even Guy Verhofstad is being nice-ish. They want a deal and recognise a compromise of some description is needed.

As an aside, just what is wrong with going for No Deal now and beginning talks on deals immediately thereafter? People throw around No Deal but just what is No Deal?

I agree - she did - in her statement at 10:03pm - when Corbyn had stated his pre-conditions earlier after the vote. That does not make 'sticking the knife in' any less of a politicking thing to do when she needs to be doing everything she can to get him onboard - by her embracing him - as much as she might well hate doing so and when her political instincts tell her to exploit him not engaging immediately.

I am afraid that as much as some might think No Deal a useful negotiation tactic to try and twist the EU's arm into giving us a better deal - and it may be - and even if such is actually in the gift of the EU given May's Red Lines - I view a No Deal exit, with associated risks, as presenting a reckless, almost callous, disregard for the poorest and most vulnerable of society. Sorry. Just how I see it. There has to be a better way.

 

[Hobbit]

I agree - she did - in her statement at 10:03pm - when Corbyn had stated his pre-conditions earlier after the vote. That does not make 'sticking the knife in' any less of a politicking thing to do when she needs to be doing everything she can to get him onboard - by her embracing him - as much as she might well hate doing so and when her political instincts tell her to exploit him not engaging immediately.

I am afraid that as much as some might think No Deal a useful negotiation tactic to try and twist the EU's arm into giving us a better deal - and it may be - and even if such is actually in the gift of the EU given May's Red Lines - I view a No Deal exit, with associated risks, as presenting a reckless, almost callous, disregard for the poorest and most vulnerable of society. Sorry. Just how I see it. There has to be a better way.

As per an earlier question I posed, could someone explain exactly what No Deal entails. And as you "view a No Deal exit, with associated risks, as presenting a reckless, almost callous, disregard for the poorest and most vulnerable of society" maybe you can provide the detail that has led you to that conclusion.

 

[chrisd]

In any negotiation you have to hold some trump cards otherwise you have little or no bargaining power. Nobody wants a no deal where a good deal is possible, but it doesn't take the brain of Britain to know that the EU will walk all over us if no deal is taken off the table. Corbyn well knows this and it's just a ploy to stop him having to engage on his real plan for exiting the EU , as was pointed out earlier he's met several terrorist organisations and I doubt he had any preconditions set before hand

Corbyn is a chancer, nothing more, nothing less!

 

[Foxholer]

Best speech I’ve heard in this sorry state we are in is David Lammys pity more politicians are not as honest as him. If I could post a link to his speech I would.

I think it was this one.

There's also another one

It might have been a good/great speech (I actually think it was), but it was extremely badly presented for a 20 year House member. A pretty polarising politician (certainly to the many '...-ist' bigots) he's only just above Dianne Abbott on my 'idiot' register! Dando's description is pretty apt!

 

[bladeplayer]

Sorry if it bn discussed for ages all i heard was

No Deal is better than a bad deal
Last Night .
No deal is disasterous and cant be let happen

Both sides full of rubbish and lies .
Playing party politics to the cost of the public

What am i missing when i hear people say go back and get a better deal ? The deal has been laid down and seemingly wont be changed ..

As far as i can see and hear its take this deal r its no deal guys ..
Not for a min saying im right tho

 

[ger147]

I agree - she did - in her statement at 10:03pm - when Corbyn had stated his pre-conditions earlier after the vote. That does not make 'sticking the knife in' any less of a politicking thing to do when she needs to be doing everything she can to get him onboard - by her embracing him - as much as she might well hate doing so and when her political instincts tell her to exploit him not engaging immediately.

I am afraid that as much as some might think No Deal a useful negotiation tactic to try and twist the EU's arm into giving us a better deal - and it may be - and even if such is actually in the gift of the EU given May's Red Lines - I view a No Deal exit, with associated risks, as presenting a reckless, almost callous, disregard for the poorest and most vulnerable of society. Sorry. Just how I see it. There has to be a better way.

There may well be a better way, I happen to agree with you re. there being a better way than a No Deal exit. However, IMO it is absolutely 100% Corbyn who is playing politics, and for a very simple reason.

May can NOT rule out a No Deal Brexit, it's not within her power to do so. The only legislation currently in place states we leave on the 29th March whether we have a deal in place with the EU or not. And as TM can't get the Tories to support her own deal and the only way to guarantee a deal is to first agree one with the EU and then get the HoC's to vote for it, she obviously can give no such guarantee.

Corbyn knows this fine well which is why he's asking for it as a pre-condition because he knows it's not possible.

All the politicking is coming from Corbyn, not May.

 

[Dando]

I think it was this one.

There's also another one

It might have been a good/great speech (I actually think it was), but it was extremely badly presented for a 20 year House member. A pretty polarising politician (certainly to the many '...-ist' bigots) he's only just above Dianne Abbott on my 'idiot' register! Dando's description is pretty apt!

He bores on about brave decisions taken in the past (nhs) but surely leaving the EU is brave

 

[Slime]

In any negotiation you have to hold some trump cards otherwise you have little or no bargaining power. Nobody wants a no deal where a good deal is possible, but it doesn't take the brain of Britain to know that the EU will walk all over us if no deal is taken off the table. Corbyn well knows this and it's just a ploy to stop him having to engage on his real plan for exiting the EU , as was pointed out earlier he's met several terrorist organisations and I doubt he had any preconditions set before hand

Corbyn is a chancer, nothing more, nothing less!

He's hell bent on causing as much chaos as possible.
He's desperate for us to leave the EU, as that would suit his personal political agenda, but needs May to fail in order to oust her and, hopefully in his eyes, force a general election in the ridiculous hope that he would actually win.
Then he could turn us into a modern day Cuba, with him as dictator .................................. which, obviously, could never work if we were still in the EU.
By causing this chaos, if everything fell to pieces he could point at May and say it was all her fault as she would have been in charge at the time.
He is a devious, divisive worm ....................... he's just rotten to the core.


I hope this makes sense, it does in my head!

 

[drdel]

He's hell bent on causing as much chaos as possible.
He's desperate for us to leave the EU, as that would suit his personal political agenda, but needs May to fail in order to oust her and, hopefully in his eyes, force a general election in the ridiculous hope that he would actually win.
Then he could turn us into a modern day Cuba, with him as dictator .................................. which, obviously, could never work if we were still in the EU.
By causing this chaos, if everything fell to pieces he could point at May and say it was all her fault as she would have been in charge at the time.
He is a devious, divisive worm ....................... he's just rotten to the core.


I hope this makes sense, it does in my head!

Over the years I've interviewed hundreds of candidates and (like many of you), you get to understand the liars and the cheats from their rapid eye movements, pauses etc. A give away for me is the overtly ' friendly and familiar' language. Watch Corbyn, McConnell and Watson and I reckon you wouldn't trust them with your change from buying a round!!

 

[chrisd]

Just watching Tony Blair being interviewed - one if the biggest liars in British political history saying that if a 2nd referendum took place and voted 51 - 49 to stay then everyone would accept it 🤔🤔🤔

 

[harpo_72]

Corbyn is damned either way you look at it ... he has opted not to participate by making a stipulation. Now we are all saying it’s his fault. But frankly he has done nothing, the referendum was offered by the Tories. They/ Cameron was voted in off the back of it and it held his party together.

Corbyn finds himself in a quandary, his party has the same divisions some want to remain others want to leave.
However irrespective of this rift in his party also being exposed, he knows if he participates in any way or form, and it goes a bit sh@t shaped, the press and the Tories will blame him...

Best thing to do is stand on the side lines, vote for what is okay and oppose what is not. Make a decision about your party line and ask those who differ in their opinion to leave.

Corbyn will never be prime minister, he has baggage that is pretty unacceptable even for tactical voters .. Labour need to change him or wither into a minority opposition.