As promised from further up the thread, here's a few predictions based on the numbers from the season and the last three tournaments they have played. Surprises are possible but statistically not likely (although we've not had real one for a while!)
Guide to image below:
Top 10 = No. of finishes in top 10 in last 3 appearances 3, 2, 1 = Finishing position in their last three tournaments
Stats fields pretty self explanatory. All important and more so at Augusta, with Par 5's thrown in as the winner tends to do well compared to the rest of the field in scoring on those. All numbers taken from PGA Tour website.
The list below is based on:
In the last 12 years, 9 of the winners had at least one top 10 finish in the 3 tournaments before the Masters
If you go back to 2001 only: Weir, Zac Johnson, Immelman, Cabrera, Schwartzel & Garcia are winners without a top 10 finish in any of their last 3 competitions. (Garcia finished 12th in his last competition before the Masters)
Only 5 players since 1997 have missed a cut in their last three events played and gone on to win.
Cabrera, Immelman, Weir, Olzabal, O'Meara. Cabrera missed his last two cuts and went on to win.
In the last 10 years the winner has been inside the top 25 the week before the competition
In the last 16 years the only winners outside the top 25 have been: Johnson (56), Immelman (29), Cabrera (69), Schwartzel (29)
You could reduce that down further and say the only winners outside the top 30 in the past 16 years were Johnson and Cabrera.
As you can see, not only is the Masters a select field, but also only a small number of that field are likely to win. I dont bet, but if I did Id be betting on the Masters because it's probably a better chance than most majors. I've left players in the list from outside the top 25, but based on the numbers above these are the most likely winners this week. No real surprises at the top. If you take out those with poor stats (although keep in mind these are season long stas not the last three competitions) Id guess the winner could well come from this shortlist:
Smith (my tip!)
My top outside bet for a win is Berger especially at 40/1. I'd likely count Sam Burns out as a winner, as it's his first Masters and the numbers of first time winners is very small (3 with the last one being Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979) There's obviosly a few more who could win if certain parts of their game do well over the 4 days. No Tiger, but who the hell knows
Each Way Bets
My each way bets or slightly long/longer shots to win / top 10 finishers are:
If you want to check the full list of players you can see it here (note it's a PDF via a google drive link). All players with red cells = not enough data.