US open betting

[USER1999]

Aside from the obvious 4, where there is no value, who are you on?

I have Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Rickie, Kevin Kisner and a minor punt on the Duff, although lack of distance could be an issue.

I also have a little tenner a man thing going at the golf club, where we each nominate a player among 4 of us for an each way bet and share the proceeds. I am getting grief for never being in the winners, so need help. E/W is not good for the big 4, so I am split between JT and BK above, or Henrick Stenson.

Ideas?

 

[BomberSRL]

Aside from the obvious 4, where there is no value, who are you on?

I have Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Rickie, Kevin Kisner and a minor punt on the Duff, although lack of distance could be an issue.

I also have a little tenner a man thing going at the golf club, where we each nominate a player among 4 of us for an each way bet and share the proceeds. I am getting grief for never being in the winners, so need help. E/W is not good for the big 4, so I am split between JT and BK above, or Henrick Stenson.

Ideas?

Bubba looks like he could go on a hot streak , John Rahm also.

 

[Junior]

Aside from the big 4 as you say.......I've always fancied someone like Fitzpatrick (80/1) or Lowry (66/1) at the US Open. Alex Noren is also playing well right now at good value at 50/1

 

[USER1999]

At 7800 yards, has Noren got the fire power?

 

[TheDiablo]

Would stay clear of BK and JT personally. With the rough as penal as it will be (see Wesley Bryan's recent video) fairways are an absolute must, and those 2 are both outside the Top 150, especially when neither are particularly well known for much other than bombing it. I like the Kisner and Fowler punts a lot though. Also think Molinari is good value for an each way shout as well as both of Junior's mentions

 

[Junior]

At 7800 yards, has Noren got the fire power?

Good point. I was watching Golf World last night and they had a guy on from Erin Hills and he said players with the most solid short-game would do well. Noren and Fitzpatrick putt well and Lowry is known for his short game. I'd chuck Phil M there too. No stats to back it up. Just gutt feel.

 

[fundy]

Good point. I was watching Golf World last night and they had a guy on from Erin Hills and he said players with the most solid short-game would do well. Noren and Fitzpatrick putt well and Lowry is known for his short game. I'd chuck Phil M there too. No stats to back it up. Just gutt feel.

Very long course (and room to lengthen to 8000 yards on all accounts!) hard to see short game as the main requirement. Long and straight driving of the ball and decent iron play surely going to be a premium, especially with greens which on average are a bit bigger than most on tour

Betting market is very very skewed to long hitting and good ball strikers

 

[Bazz]

Good point. I was watching Golf World last night and they had a guy on from Erin Hills and he said players with the most solid short-game would do well. Noren and Fitzpatrick putt well and Lowry is known for his short game. I'd chuck Phil M there too. No stats to back it up. Just gutt feel.

I'll have £1000 with you that Phil doesn't win it....

 

[fundy]

I'll have £1000 with you that Phil doesn't win it....

careful, petition to get his daughters graduation ceremony brought forward

 

[Bazz]

careful, petition to get his daughters graduation ceremony brought forward

Yeah just seen that...and he's hoping for rain to get the start delayed.

Maybe a tenner instead then

 

[fundy]

Yeah just seen that...and he's hoping for rain to get the start delayed.

Maybe a tenner instead then

he can hope all he wants on all accounts, 80 degrees, dry and sunny forecast

 

[Region3]

Wouldn't fancy any of these to win it, but maybe sneak into a place...

Russell Henley
Lee Westwood
Louis Oosthuizen
Kevin Chappell
Martin Kaymer

I know he's no good for place money, but is DJ really bad value at 7/1?
If they played the thing 8 times you'd have to fancy him to win at least once with his driving.

 

[fundy]

Wouldn't fancy any of these to win it, but maybe sneak into a place...

Russell Henley
Lee Westwood
Louis Oosthuizen
Kevin Chappell
Martin Kaymer

I know he's no good for place money, but is DJ really bad value at 7/1?
If they played the thing 8 times you'd have to fancy him to win at least once with his driving.

has to be the most likely winner, that said missing the cut last week with some of the worst putting stats going not ideal preparation

 

[Region3]

has to be the most likely winner, that said missing the cut last week with some of the worst putting stats going not ideal preparation

At least we know it won't be playing on his mind

 

[User62651]

Around about 100-1 odds for Lee Westwood which would still be decent odds E/W, still a long straight driver of the ball and solid iron player. If the greens are big there will be less chips for him to duff! Just needs a good putting week.
Think he might do ok.

 

[USER1999]

I think if i pick Westy again my 3 mates will think i am taking liberties.

 

[Curls]

So difficult when there's no course form to go on, who knows it might just suit someone's eye and they win they're only major here.

Short Prices: Any votes for Sergio to go 2 for 2 at 22?! Now that the monkey is off his back you never know.

Mid range: Patrick Reed (66) and Louis (50) have the all round game needed.

Long shots: Gary Woodland and Rafa (125s). Maybe not top form but have the length, the former is the kind of yank I can see winning 1 major and the latter hasn't put 4 rounds together in a long time, but if he does...

Super long shot: Troy Merritt @ 1000/1. Because he's 1000/1 and I'm a lunatic. But he also is capable of shooting 61 at the Quicken Loans and Memorial, so on his day he's brilliant. Just needs to put 4 of them together on the hardest track in history on one of the biggest stages. Go Troy.

 

[G.U.R]

Matsuyama seems to be playing solidly and might be worth a punt.

 

[Mattyboy]

Tom Clarke's tips in the GM website http://www.golf-monthly.co.uk/us-open/us-open-news/us-open-golf-betting-tips-2017-95774 are usually very good. He does tend to back the field in majors but his record speaks for itself........:thup:

 

[Steve Bamford]

Been trawling through the US Open Media Day presentation from Mike Davis - USGA Executive Director. He always summarises the test of each venue course. Some great insight here. These are his comments as to length

""In terms of the scorecard yardage, it's going to be 7,692 yards. We won't play that yardage on any one of the four days I'm quite certain. It may be slightly more than that, it may be slightly less than that, but we really don't figure out exactly what we're going to do until really the day before or even the day off once we know what the wind conditions and the firmness is going to be. But while that sounds long on a scorecard, remember, we're playing a par-72, and that's the first time since 1992 we've done that at a U.S. Open. If you think taking 300 to 450 yards off that, now all of a sudden you actually get to a point, assuming this is a bouncy golf course, where I actually think that Erin Hills will be a little bit shorter in terms of how it feels to a player than some of the Opens we go to."

By the way it is going to play firm and fast and early forecasts suggest 15-20 mph winds. Rules plenty out IMO.