nickjdavis
Head Pro
Below is the copy of some text from a post I made on another golfing website back in 2009. Given we are still using the same handicapping system today I'd be surprised if rerunning the analysis I'd find that the results were significantly different today...
Recently I was tasked with re-installing the clubs handicapping software on a new PC and restoring our current database....luckily the club still had the original installation disks....except they were floppies (remember them?) and of course the new PC didnt have a floppy drive....unluckily there was no documentation to go with the software (apart from some garbled scribble on a paper towel that seemed to refer to C: prompts and other DOS commands).....but hey....i work in IT.....i'm used to that!!!
Once I'd overcome all the technical difficulties and got the software up and running and the original DB restored I started having a play. Apart from the software being pretty damned clumsy there are some interesting reports the thing can generate for you. One of which is a report showing how many times a player scored nett differentials below, in or above the buffer zone.
So during the audioconference which I'm currently stuck on (which at the moment has gone off at a tangent from its original uninteresting topic to something even more obscure), I've been playing with some of the numbers to see if I can confirm the typical assertion that you should only play to your handicap once every 4,6 or 10 rounds....whatever theory you subscribe to.
I only considered golfers who'd played in at least 12 comps over the last year in this analysis....that gave me results for 92 golfers covering a total of 1743 rounds of golf.
From this total sample, only 9% of all rounds were played "below the buffer zone" (i.e. resulted in a handicap cut), 23% of scores were in the buffer zone with the remaining 68% being outside the buffer zone giving a 0.1 shot increase.
Breaking the results down further by handicap reveals that the low handicappers fared better than their higher handicap counterparts in that they were far more likely to score below the buffer zone.
15% of rounds played by 4-12 hcap golfers (20 golfers 398 rounds) fell below the buffer zone (21% in BZ, 64% above BZ) whereas the 17+ handicaps (49 golfers, 871 rounds) were down at around 5% on average (below buffer zone). Subdividing the 4-12 'cappers further showed that for the 4-7 (6 golfers, 146 rounds) the proportion of scores below the buffer zone was around 19%.
Interestingly (?) the % of rounds within the buffer zone largely remained largely constant irrespective of the handicap category....at or around the 21-25% level with no direct correlation between the variation and handicap level. For the most part, when lower handicappers shot more scores below the buffer zone, they shot a corresponding % of rounds less, above the buffer zone.
So.....it would seem safe to say that for most golfers, 2 rounds in 9 will fall within the BZ itself, the very lowest of handicap golfers will play 15-20% of rounds below the buffer zone whilst the very highest of handicaps (say 20+) will only shoot scores that result in a handicap cut maybe 5% of the time at the best.
Is this yet another nail in the coffin that says that higher handicap golfers have an advantage??
Recently I was tasked with re-installing the clubs handicapping software on a new PC and restoring our current database....luckily the club still had the original installation disks....except they were floppies (remember them?) and of course the new PC didnt have a floppy drive....unluckily there was no documentation to go with the software (apart from some garbled scribble on a paper towel that seemed to refer to C: prompts and other DOS commands).....but hey....i work in IT.....i'm used to that!!!
Once I'd overcome all the technical difficulties and got the software up and running and the original DB restored I started having a play. Apart from the software being pretty damned clumsy there are some interesting reports the thing can generate for you. One of which is a report showing how many times a player scored nett differentials below, in or above the buffer zone.
So during the audioconference which I'm currently stuck on (which at the moment has gone off at a tangent from its original uninteresting topic to something even more obscure), I've been playing with some of the numbers to see if I can confirm the typical assertion that you should only play to your handicap once every 4,6 or 10 rounds....whatever theory you subscribe to.
I only considered golfers who'd played in at least 12 comps over the last year in this analysis....that gave me results for 92 golfers covering a total of 1743 rounds of golf.
From this total sample, only 9% of all rounds were played "below the buffer zone" (i.e. resulted in a handicap cut), 23% of scores were in the buffer zone with the remaining 68% being outside the buffer zone giving a 0.1 shot increase.
Breaking the results down further by handicap reveals that the low handicappers fared better than their higher handicap counterparts in that they were far more likely to score below the buffer zone.
15% of rounds played by 4-12 hcap golfers (20 golfers 398 rounds) fell below the buffer zone (21% in BZ, 64% above BZ) whereas the 17+ handicaps (49 golfers, 871 rounds) were down at around 5% on average (below buffer zone). Subdividing the 4-12 'cappers further showed that for the 4-7 (6 golfers, 146 rounds) the proportion of scores below the buffer zone was around 19%.
Interestingly (?) the % of rounds within the buffer zone largely remained largely constant irrespective of the handicap category....at or around the 21-25% level with no direct correlation between the variation and handicap level. For the most part, when lower handicappers shot more scores below the buffer zone, they shot a corresponding % of rounds less, above the buffer zone.
So.....it would seem safe to say that for most golfers, 2 rounds in 9 will fall within the BZ itself, the very lowest of handicap golfers will play 15-20% of rounds below the buffer zone whilst the very highest of handicaps (say 20+) will only shoot scores that result in a handicap cut maybe 5% of the time at the best.
Is this yet another nail in the coffin that says that higher handicap golfers have an advantage??