The Virus anybody else done the maths

[drdel]

We won’t know what the new normal death rate is whilst the social interaction is severely curbed.

Equally, there are a number of diseases around that have been here for hundreds of years. I do wonder if we will just have to learn to live with a new ‘Smallpox’ that might flare up.

If we looked at a ‘standard’ model for an epidemic they mostly look something like this..


(S = those susceptible; I= number infected, R=those individuals who have been infected and then 'removed' from the disease, either due to antibodies or death. Those in this category are not able to be infected again or to transmit the infection to others.)

Were the UK’s data to be like the red line (and the 7day moving average is pretty similar I'd suggest) there’s about another 6 to 8 weeks before we will start to reaching diminishing returns. Hopefully that would enable society to 'return' to a new normal with a vaccine or therapy intervention!

 

[bobmac]

Number of UK daily deaths....
22nd Apr....837
29th Apr....795
6th May.....649
13th May...494

 

[Backache]

If we looked at a ‘standard’ model for an epidemic they mostly look something like this..

View attachment 30653
(S = those susceptible; I= number infected, R=those individuals who have been infected and then 'removed' from the disease, either due to antibodies or death. Those in this category are not able to be infected again or to transmit the infection to others.)

Were the UK’s data to be like the red line (and the 7day moving average is pretty similar I'd suggest) there’s about another 6 to 8 weeks before we will start to reaching diminishing returns. Hopefully that would enable society to 'return' to a new normal with a vaccine or therapy intervention!

Don't know what's on your y axis but Spain is only reporting a 5% rate of antibodies in the population and ours are probably not dissimilar.

 

[drdel]

Don't know what's on your y axis but Spain is only reporting a 5% rate of antibodies in the population and ours are probably not dissimilar.

I was really just thinking about the shape and the tail off rate. The dependent variable is just to show proportionality. The theory is also assuming full knowledge across the population, 100% testing so a bit abstract - as with all mathematical propositions ??

 

[funkycoldmedina]

Don't know what's on your y axis but Spain is only reporting a 5% rate of antibodies in the population and ours are probably not dissimilar.

Do you have any idea how Spain can put a number on that rate with any confidence?

 

[SocketRocket]

Don't know what's on your y axis but Spain is only reporting a 5% rate of antibodies in the population and ours are probably not dissimilar.

I assume X is Time and Y is Volume.

 

[Backache]

Do you have any idea how Spain can put a number on that rate with any confidence?

I would imagine that it is testing antibodies in a form of stratified random samping of the population but I don't know, I've only seen the reports not the methodology.

 

[Backache]

I assume X is Time and Y is Volume.

Sure, it was the units I was wondering about as there are numbers on the axes.

 

[drdel]

Sure, it was the units I was wondering about as there are numbers on the axes.

The axis are just a scale, if you want use actual relevant data just reapportion. You will need to estimate the population of infections.

 

[bobmac]

Number of UK daily deaths....
12th Apr....686
19th Apr....498
26th Apr...420
3rd May.....315
10th May...268
Today........170

 

[drdel]

Number of UK daily deaths....
12th Apr....686
19th Apr....498
26th Apr...420
3rd May.....315
10th May...268
Today........170

Today's number will jump a bit because of the weekend lag and N Ireland data had a gliche.

I'd estimate the death curve to be a somewhat flattened Euler distribution which means the 'tail' may be quite stretched.

 

[BubbaP]

Number of UK daily deaths....
12th Apr....686
19th Apr....498
26th Apr...420
3rd May.....315
10th May...268
Today........170

Comparing the same day of the week as you've done recently helps to remove some the reporting timeline uncertainty ?

And good to see the new cases below 3K for first time in ages. Long may that continue to fall ?

 

[bobmac]

Midweek figures

22nd Apr....837
29th Apr....795
6th May.....649
13th May...494
20th May...363

 

[rulefan]

Isn't new confirmed cases a more significant number than deaths?

 

[bobmac]

Isn't new confirmed cases a more significant number than deaths?

I guess that would depend on who you ask.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

I guess that would depend on who you ask.

I completely get your point but it means in terms of the trend. Someone in the death statistics may have contracted the virus 2 months ago and been on a ventilator for 8 weeks before sadly passing. Infections show where we are going.

 

[BubbaP]

Ultimately they are both important.
Does anyone have any insight into why no new cases numbers were published for UK yesterday?

 

[Italian outcast]

Ultimately they are both important.
Does anyone have any insight into why no new cases numbers were published for UK yesterday?

They got themselves in a real muddle over this - its all do to their reporting of cases under pillar 1, 2 etc - and then reassigning cases to different pillars at a later data (i know more confusion) so there numbers don't align
(they actually lost cases yesterday from the previous day)

The actual new number is around 2,500 - so coming down

Hate to say it - I suspect we may be seeing something of a goal-seeking approach to testing and reporting to make sure the numbers stay on this downward trend

 

[bobmac]

Last 8 weeks daily death figures

20 Apr 559
27th 338

4th May 288
11th 210
18th 160
25th 121

1st June 111
Today 55

 

[Old Skier]

Always wait for Tuesday before I look at any figures.