The Virus anybody else done the maths

[Hobbit]

Does anyone thing this will just go away in it's own time or will a vaccine have to be found to actually eradicate it?

The original Corona Virus was identified in 1931. There was an outbreak in the early 60's, and... can't remember the other. This version may well fade into the background but there'll be others.

Currently, there's an outbreak of bubonic plague in Mongolia... think that's been around before. Wonder where it will end up.

 

[GB72]

Does anyone thing this will just go away in it's own time or will a vaccine have to be found to actually eradicate it?

There has to be something changing. I just cannot see how recent mass gatherings have had at most a nominal impact. Are the chances of it spreading outside actually very low, is it becoming less virulent (I know that theory was shot down when put forward in Italy) is it just that the chance of contacting someone with it is now very low. I am at a bit of a loss with the current numbers against recent behaviour

 

[pendodave]

There has to be something changing. I just cannot see how recent mass gatherings have had at most a nominal impact. Are the chances of it spreading outside actually very low, is it becoming less virulent (I know that theory was shot down when put forward in Italy) is it just that the chance of contacting someone with it is now very low. I am at a bit of a loss with the current numbers against recent behaviour

How virulent has it ever been? Well over half the UK deaths are as a result of seeding the care homes. Most of the rest very old or ill. It's unpleasant, but it's not the Mongolian bubonic plague, whatever they keep telling us...

 

[SocketRocket]

How virulent has it ever been? Well over half the UK deaths are as a result of seeding the care homes. Most of the rest very old or ill. It's unpleasant, but it's not the Mongolian bubonic plague, whatever they keep telling us...

Old lives matter.

 

[Billysboots]

Does anyone thing this will just go away in it's own time or will a vaccine have to be found to actually eradicate it?

I’m going to stick my head above the parapet and say I think this will run a natural course, and a combination of a reduction in potency and improved treatments will see it become part of our lives.

For all the fuss about VE Day celebrations causing a spike, we haven’t seen one. Same goes, so far, for the BLM protests. Whilst those countries which have eased their way out of their lockdown seem to have suffered small spikes, they seem to be local and have been suppressed quite quickly.

I’m just starting to feel that we are seeing a chink of light.

 

[Swinglowandslow]

How virulent has it ever been? Well over half the UK deaths are as a result of seeding the care homes. Most of the rest very old or ill. It's unpleasant, but it's not the Mongolian bubonic plague, whatever they keep telling us...

Well, for a start, the bubonic plague can be treated with antibiotics apparently, so it can be contained, and has been around in Chine for years. Due to its time and infamy in history it sounds a frightening threat, but it can be dealt with.
As for Covid I see in today's press that three Pubs have re-closed due to some punter testing positive. It is lurking there , like a volcano ready to erupt again, IMHO, so we should still be vigilant.
I agree that we may well find that many more than we thought of our population have had Covid, but the true test will come in colder months, unless the vaccine becomes (hopefully)available first.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

USA has between 1 & 17 cases of Plague a year.
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/plague-exists-now-us/story?id=55860883

 

[GB72]

Interesting figures from the US that the average age of a Covid patient has come down in age by 15 years in the last few months with previous averages being in the 50s and 60s and now it is 33. Part of that is down to younger people either in front line jobs or customer facing jobs, the rest is down to their flagrant breaching of social distancing.

Would be interested to see similar figures for the UK and see if the bulk of cases has moved to the younger generations.

 

[drdel]

I’m going to stick my head above the parapet and say I think this will run a natural course, and a combination of a reduction in potency and improved treatments will see it become part of our lives.

For all the fuss about VE Day celebrations causing a spike, we haven’t seen one. Same goes, so far, for the BLM protests. Whilst those countries which have eased their way out of their lockdown seem to have suffered small spikes, they seem to be local and have been suppressed quite quickly.

I’m just starting to feel that we are seeing a chink of light.

i think the opposite. The world population has grown and so population density is very high in many places. Add to that air travel (was) prolific so I'm afraid we have all the factors to make pandemics more common.

Convid19 will be common until a vaccine enables it to be better controlled.

 

[BubbaP]

Some may think this is karma
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-53319517

 

[User62651]

Find the Melbourne situation worrying. They were pretty succesful in terms of minimising deaths (106) and cases - doing things properly, now after significant increases in cases they are shutting down Melbourne hard for another 6 weeks. Another 6 weeks is a long time after some easing has already taken place - so demoralising for those needing to work to survive, those stuck in flats etc, elderly unable to see family etc. Only allowed out for food/medicine/exercise etc. I thought they might do 2 weeks which is the isolate time, not 6. Seems to be tower blocks where it's taken off, crowded areas but they're not sure why. Imagine getting that here again!

Israel is close to locking down again after significant cases increase since easing.

Here the BLM protests around the UK followed by ignoring of social distancing by hordes of young revellers in London and elsewhere on Saturday must have an effect here - how much remains to be seen. Here they're saying 80% of infected are asymptomatic so wont get tested, they are still spreaders though. Our testing system remains very weak. Seen plenty folk sat outside at cafes and pubs today here, just opened, 2m is not really being followed. The serving staff not wearing masks because it's outside but standing right next to customers again and again over the duration of the day.

Was in the bank using the deposits machine and member of staff (no mask on) appropached to within 0.5m of me to ask if I needed any help! Not right.

Where this will end up is anyone's guess, we're no clearer on the future than we were 4 months ago. Worries and stresses over employment and finances getting worse by the week. Grim.

 

[Imurg]

That spike may be the addition of 1200+ Pillar 2 positives from Wales.
They've only just been added.
Overall rates are still falling ....

 

[BubbaP]

Have been looking at the UK new cases chart with concern over the last week as it threatens to trend upwards. And now a big spike yesterday. Hope it's a blip but looking ominous.

View attachment 31638

Suspect whoever did the chart jumped the gun a little ....

398 new cases and 138 new deaths in the United Kingdom. The Government reported 398 new cases today. In addition, the total lab-confirmed cases for Wales now include Pillar 2 tests which means that the total number of UK lab-confirmed cases has increased by 1,240 since yesterday. As the Welsh methodology is improved, some revisions are expected in the next 1 to 2 weeks

 

[SocketRocket]

Phew - I'm missing seeing these numbers we used to get in the old daily briefing.

You can see them on the .GOV web site

 

[BubbaP]

Yesterday the tracker site reported over 200K cases in one day (worldwide).
Difficult to conclude how much of that is greater access to testing, or it's spreading more quickly.

The reported death rates haven't increased with the same pace, and remain lower than the late March/early April peaks. Optimistically might think that globally the treatment is better understood and more options available. Conversely as has been discussed previously, how accurate and consistent is the reporting, especially in some of the countries being impacted harder currently.
Tricky to make sense of it all.

2 weeks later, and just under 250K cases in one day (worldwide).

Feels like we are some way off things tailing off globally.

 

[BubbaP]

Looking like cases on the rise a bit across Europe, although not to the levels we saw a few months back.

280K worldwide reported yesterday ?

Note that Trump's rhetoric has changed recently

 

[Billysboots]

Looking like cases on the rise a bit across Europe, although not to the levels we saw a few months back.

280K worldwide reported yesterday ?

Note that Trump's rhetoric has changed recently

Although if things continue in Spain and, to an extent, France as they have in the last few days we could be in trouble again. Let’s hope deaths don’t start on the same upward trajectory in a couple of weeks.

 

[PJ87]

Find the Melbourne situation worrying. They were pretty succesful in terms of minimising deaths (106) and cases - doing things properly, now after significant increases in cases they are shutting down Melbourne hard for another 6 weeks. Another 6 weeks is a long time after some easing has already taken place - so demoralising for those needing to work to survive, those stuck in flats etc, elderly unable to see family etc. Only allowed out for food/medicine/exercise etc. I thought they might do 2 weeks which is the isolate time, not 6. Seems to be tower blocks where it's taken off, crowded areas but they're not sure why. Imagine getting that here again!

Israel is close to locking down again after significant cases increase since easing.

Here the BLM protests around the UK followed by ignoring of social distancing by hordes of young revellers in London and elsewhere on Saturday must have an effect here - how much remains to be seen. Here they're saying 80% of infected are asymptomatic so wont get tested, they are still spreaders though. Our testing system remains very weak. Seen plenty folk sat outside at cafes and pubs today here, just opened, 2m is not really being followed. The serving staff not wearing masks because it's outside but standing right next to customers again and again over the duration of the day.

Was in the bank using the deposits machine and member of staff (no mask on) appropached to within 0.5m of me to ask if I needed any help! Not right.

Where this will end up is anyone's guess, we're no clearer on the future than we were 4 months ago. Worries and stresses over employment and finances getting worse by the week. Grim.

same will happen to new zealand ... they locked down too well.. like parents who wont let their kids get dirty or touch anything.. they get a simple cold and it knocks them for six as they have zero immunity

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Trump's rhetoric may have changed in the Tuesday night briefing as his aides would have pointed out his disastrous ratings in his management of the crisis - but he started to revert to type yesterday...a leopard cannot change it's spots. His argument that the only reason the 'numbers' infected are increasing is that there is more testing, is rather undermined when the numbers going into hospital are also increasing. Not sure that he understands that.

 

[Crazyface]

Reading the stats this morning the current death rate is below the average for the time of year. Why are we wearing masks?