Leicester Lockdown ?

[Deleted member 18588]

If the action would make the blindest bit of difference, then maybe so. But will it? I dont think so. Given that we have been in lockdown for 3 months, how will more lockdown of the general population make things different?
As said above, there are almost certainly specific reasons for the rise. If we concentrated on a functioning policy on incoming flights and contact isolation it would surely be more effective than this.
Also, lets be a bit more sensible about numbers. Many of them are very low at present, so just quoting perecentages is not particularly illuminating.

But it's not a lockdown of the general population.

It is specific to an area where there has been a vastly disproportionate increase in the number of cases.

Are you saying that the national lockdown has not been beneficial to the control of the pandemic? Current figures and trends would seem to suggest that it has been and, therefore, it is reasonable to assume that a localised version should prove equally effective.

 

[pendodave]

But it's not a lockdown of the general population.

It is specific to an area where there has been a vastly disproportionate increase in the number of cases.

Are you saying that the national lockdown has not been beneficial to the control of the pandemic? Current figures and trends would seem to suggest that it has been and, therefore, it is reasonable to assume that a localised version should prove equally effective.

The curve of our infection is the same as any other respiatory virus. It's the same shape as other countries and shows no obvious relationship to changes of govt policy. People might wish it to be so, given the costs, but we'll really never know...

 

[GG26]

It is a bit of an odd situation where I live just outside of the Leicester lockdown zone. Was trying to explain to my wife this morning why she should carry out our weekly shop in Market Harborough (10 miles away), rather than the usual trip to Oadby (3 miles). Her response was that they are not shutting down essential shops and I pointed out that travel in to or out of the area should be avoided. It’s not clear what the right answer is and there will be many other similar issues.

For example, the nearest golf club to me is in the zone. Do they now shut as it’s not essential travel? Fortunately, my club is outside the zone and so can remain open, but should we advise members that live in the zone that they should stay away?

 

[PJ87]

apparently my borough (havering) has the highest increase atm at 300%... was 2 new cases.. now 8.. wow proper big figures...... I know they are being careful but with the shops re open since those figures were drawn what do you expect?

 

[ColchesterFC]

apparently my borough (havering) has the highest increase atm at 300%... was 2 new cases.. now 8.. wow proper big figures...... I know they are being careful but with the shops re open since those figures were drawn what do you expect?

I agree with this. Suffolk has seen a 50% rise in case between June 13-19 and June 20-26. It's gone from 2 to 3 cases. Looking at the numbers I don't understand why Doncaster hasn't been locked down. They've gone from 11 to 32 cases in the same two weeks as above. Surely that has to be more of a concern than a rise of two cases (39 to 41) in Leicester.

 

[PJ87]

I agree with this. Suffolk has seen a 50% rise in case between June 13-19 and June 20-26. It's gone from 2 to 3 cases. Looking at the numbers I don't understand why Doncaster hasn't been locked down. They've gone from 11 to 32 cases in the same two weeks as above. Surely that has to be more of a concern than a rise of two cases (39 to 41) in Leicester.

View attachment 31445

Sounds like typical sensastional figures from the mail to me.. 8 new cases seems proper small fry

 

[IanM]

apparently my borough (havering) has the highest increase atm at 300%... was 2 new cases.. now 8.. wow proper big figures...... I know they are being careful but with the shops re open since those figures were drawn what do you expect?

ah, stats don't lie! But they can miss the truth!

 

[Papas1982]

Sounds like typical sensastional figures from the mail to me.. 8 new cases seems proper small fry

Think back to the original outbreak.

How low were the nunbers when everyone wasn't concerned....

I'm not saying it needs to be panic stations, but I can imagine the outcry if we have a 2nd wave and their are examples of rises that were ignored.

 

[Imurg]

This is exactly why, in certain circumstances, percentages are a complete waste of time and will only confuse.
Its raw numbers that need to be looked at...

 

[Bunkermagnet]

How much of this is due to the protests and mass gatherings that have been going on, along with the stupidity of those at beach locations and the like?
I think it's a bit harsh to target one area like this, it's not as if no-one from there has been mixing with others not from there or vice versa.

 

[Hacker Khan]

I agree with this. Suffolk has seen a 50% rise in case between June 13-19 and June 20-26. It's gone from 2 to 3 cases. Looking at the numbers I don't understand why Doncaster hasn't been locked down. They've gone from 11 to 32 cases in the same two weeks as above. Surely that has to be more of a concern than a rise of two cases (39 to 41) in Leicester.

View attachment 31445

Not sure how old that is but there have been 944 new cases reported in the last 2 weeks in Leicester, 10% of all positive cases in the country over the past week. Which sound slightly more worrying than an increase of 2 cases week to week. Dare I ask which esteemed scientific journal this bit of hard hitting statistical analysis was taken from?

 

[Lord Tyrion]

How much of this is due to the protests and mass gatherings that have been going on, along with the stupidity of those at beach locations and the like?
I think it's a bit harsh to target one area like this, it's not as if no-one from there has been mixing with others not from there or vice versa.

It is exactly how you have to treat small spikes. The alternative is you put the whole country into lockdown again.

I'm not sure the Leicester issue can be put down to Bournemouth beach or BLM marches. They don't stand out for that area as the answers.

 

[GB72]

How much of this is due to the protests and mass gatherings that have been going on, along with the stupidity of those at beach locations and the like?
I think it's a bit harsh to target one area like this, it's not as if no-one from there has been mixing with others not from there or vice versa.

With a large asian community, any rise may well be as a result of Eid rather than anything else which may also account for the rise over the last 2 weeks but the more recent dropping off of new cases.

 

[fundy]

Kind of surprised that the race meeting has gone ahead today, horseboxes from all over the country going in and out cant be the best idea even if just from a perception point

 

[ColchesterFC]

Not sure how old that is but there have been 944 new cases reported in the last 2 weeks in Leicester, 10% of all positive cases in the country over the past week. Which sound slightly more worrying than an increase of 2 cases week to week. Dare I ask which esteemed scientific journal this bit of hard hitting statistical analysis was taken from?

Of course you can. It was from the New Scientist.





Or was possibly a cut and paste from the Daily Mail. Although, as they said the figures were from PHE, I did expect them to be accurate. I was ignoring % increase and looking at the increase in cases from week to week. If the 944 new cases for Leicester are correct (and I'm not doubting them) I would be interested to see the Doncaster numbers for the same period.

EDIT - RE: how old it was. The article was dated today.

 

[ColchesterFC]

Sounds like typical sensastional figures from the mail to me.. 8 new cases seems proper small fry

If anything, judging by HK's post, if anything they have underestimated the number of cases in Leicester rather than sensationalising them.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Of course you can. It was from the New Scientist.

Or was possibly a cut and paste from the Daily Mail. Although, as they said the figures were from PHE, I did expect them to be accurate. I was ignoring % increase and looking at the increase in cases from week to week. If the 944 new cases for Leicester are correct (and I'm not doubting them) I would be interested to see the Doncaster numbers for the same period.

EDIT - RE: how old it was. The article was dated today.

Some details here(for the most recent two weeks) :-

https://www.getthedata.com/covid-19/doncaster-coronavirus-cases

All areas broken down here :-

https://www.getthedata.com/covid-19/utla-by-day

Got a funny feeling I think I read it doesn't include all different types of pillar testing, but could be wrong, certainly gives a good indication whatever way.

 

[ColchesterFC]

Some details here(for the most recent two weeks) :-

https://www.getthedata.com/covid-19/doncaster-coronavirus-cases

All areas broken down here :-

https://www.getthedata.com/covid-19/utla-by-day

Got a funny feeling I think I read it doesn't include all different types of pillar testing, but could be wrong, certainly gives a good indication whatever way.

Thank you. That seems to show that the rise is Doncaster was 29 in the second week from the DM figures rather than 32 (data doesn't go back far enough to see the full previous week). Using the second link it shows Leicester as 36 new cases, rather than the 41 in the DM article. So my question would be where has the 944 new cases figure for Leicester come from? This is a massive difference in the numbers.

 

[Deleted member 18588]

With a large asian community, any rise may well be as a result of Eid rather than anything else which may also account for the rise over the last 2 weeks but the more recent dropping off of new cases.

Eid was over 5 weeks ago and, in any event, much of the South Asian population of Leicester is Hindu and Sikh rather than Muslim.

 

[Slab]

Thank you. That seems to show that the rise is Doncaster was 29 in the second week from the DM figures rather than 32 (data doesn't go back far enough to see the full previous week). Using the second link it shows Leicester as 36 new cases, rather than the 41 in the DM article. So my question would be where has the 944 new cases figure for Leicester come from? This is a massive difference in the numbers.

I read that there's another set of numbers available to the Gov that are not made public