US Open 2019

[Captainron]

I actually love how hard the USGA make their Open. It makes a change from seeing guys rip up courses. Patience and knowing when to attack is probably worth a few shots over the week.

I like Pebble Beach too. Some stunning holes (especially 7 and 8) and it has provided a good test in the past. Love the coastal holes.

Koepka has been magnificent all year and is rightly favourite. Rory is in some form after this week (should win) and Tiger is not playing badly.

I’ve had a cheeky punt on Lowry so far at 50/1. Any other outsiders worth a look?

 

[fundy]

I actually love how hard the USGA make their Open. It makes a change from seeing guys rip up courses. Patience and knowing when to attack is probably worth a few shots over the week.

I like Pebble Beach too. Some stunning holes (especially 7 and 8) and it has provided a good test in the past. Love the coastal holes.

Koepka has been magnificent all year and is rightly favourite. Rory is in some form after this week (should win) and Tiger is not playing badly.

I’ve had a cheeky punt on Lowry so far at 50/1. Any other outsiders worth a look?

like you i took some Lowry EW at 70s earlier, playing well and a test that should suit

think its hard to fancy too many of the outsiders, should set up to suit the big guys (Koepka, Rory, DJ especially)

guys like Cantlay and Schauffle both got chances to break through but are at prohibitive prices. Like Adam Scott of late but too short based on how hes putting, prob a bit of value in Kuchars price but I wont be backing the cheetah

 

[Dan2501]

JT is my pick. Due a big week.

 

[Wolf]

Rory has played well this week, but is yet to turn up in the majors despite his early season form so jury still out on that for me and I don't see him being in contention come Sunday.

Can see Cantlay having another solid week and Scahuffele.

My favourite major of the year love the way the courses set up and happens to be at my all time bucket list course this week so I'll be settling in for the duration.

 

[Dan2501]

Listened to the US Open preview podcast from NLU with Shane Bacon and sounds like it's going to be a course that no-one is out of the running in terms of distance, it's not a particularly long course, the fairways are going to be really tight and the greens are tiny. To me, that means the bomb and gouge guys aren't going to have a good week, and there's going to be a massive premium on iron play, distance control and course management. That therefore brings Tiger right into play, he'll only have to hit 4 or 5 drivers a round max and his iron play is about as good as anyone on Tour, he also has history at Pebble. I think it also brings Spieth into play, his iron and wedge game is always superb and his course management is superb.

Looking down the stats could also pull out a few names. So Proximity to Hole on the PGA Tour for those that have qualified this season:

1. Jim Furyk
2. Keegan Bradley
3. Tiger Woods
4. Chesson Hadley
5. Jason Dufner

Then SG Approaching the Green:

1. Henrik Stenson
2. Keegan Bradley
3. Sergio Garcia
4. Rory McIlroy
5. Hideki Matsuyama

Other names in the Top 15 for SG Approach for those that have qualified include Justin Thomas, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka, Tiger Woods, Adam Scott and Dustin Johnson.

Scrambling and SG around the greens will also be massive with the greens being so small. So the leaders on tour for that category that have qualified are:

1. Brandt Snedeker
2. Ben An
3. Louis Oosthuizen
4. Aaron Baddeley
5. Si Woo Kim

This is also another area Tiger is doing very well this year, sat #6 for the season of those that have qualified. Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay and Adam Scott also do well here featuring in the Top 15.

The winner of a Tournament is also generally decided by the best putter of the best guys in terms of SG Tee to Green. So on Tour this year, the leading guys Tee-to-Green:

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Patrick Cantlay
3. Hideki Matsuyama
4. Dustin Johnson
5. Justin Thomas

So there are a few names that jump out across the board that are worth looking at this week - they are:

1. Hideki Matsuyama
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Tiger Woods
4. Justin Thomas
5. Patrick Cantlay

So still feeling pretty confident with my pick earlier in the thread of Justin Thomas, but could see any of those 5 + Koepka, DJ, Bradley and Spieth being there or there abouts this week. We'll see how the stats work out in reality this week. Be interesting to look back at this come Sunday to see how accurate/useful the analysis is.

 

[HomerJSimpson]

I love Pebble Beach and hopefully it'll be playing tough and the winner will have to really work hard for the title as opposed to the usual bomb and putt offerings weekly on the PGA tour. Loads of players in with a shout although I can't see Koepka, McIlroy or Woods winning. I think Justin Thomas will have a good week and hope Rose can find some form again. Would love to see Fleetwood do it

 

[Jacko_G]

I'm backing Jordan to do well this week, maybe a wee e/w flutter.

Also fancy De Sham Bo. Just a matter of time before he wins big.

 

[Imurg]

Also fancy De Sham Bo. Just a matter of time before he wins big.

I know what you're saying but he's not done anything since he got to USA after the desert swing in Jan/Feb...
Needs to extract his digit!

 

[Orikoru]

I've had 2 quid on Spieth to win already. Weighing up the options for my each ways. I'm thinking Tommy, Kuch, Stenson maybe at the moment. Gonna wait til the online tipsters have their say this week though.

 

[BrianM]

Not sure on JT, just coming back from injury, should be fresh though.
Rory will be there abouts, so should Spieth.

 

[Grant85]

I actually love how hard the USGA make their Open. It makes a change from seeing guys rip up courses. Patience and knowing when to attack is probably worth a few shots over the week.

I like Pebble Beach too. Some stunning holes (especially 7 and 8) and it has provided a good test in the past. Love the coastal holes.

Koepka has been magnificent all year and is rightly favourite. Rory is in some form after this week (should win) and Tiger is not playing badly.

I’ve had a cheeky punt on Lowry so far at 50/1. Any other outsiders worth a look?

agree with the sentiment on the stiffness of the test.
The players obviously don't like it as they prefer to be playing birdie fests, but it's the same course for everyone. Ultimately a load of them talk themselves out of contention.

The chat seems to be that length is not all that important, so we could be spared a Brooks or DJ muscle fest. Hopefully allows plenty of room for other players to get involved.

With small greens, iron play is going to be key. Should favour Tiger if he can keep it in play off the tee.

I'm going for Molinari, with a romantic bet on Phil and a value bet on Matt Wallace.

If conditions are really tough then I'd give Rose, Spieth, Stenson chances.
Obviously can never rule out Brooks, but surely he can't go 3 in a Row!

 

[Bazzatron]

Not had a penny on but would love Rory or Phil to win it.

 

[Imurg]

While I'm generally in favour of rough to put an emphasis on hitting fairways, I'm not in favour of having it so deep that players have to hack out 10 yards when they do go in it.
And it should be a stern test, of course it should.
But too many Majors seem to turn into a war of attrition with the leading players being those that make the least mistakes rather than the ones playing well - not necessarily the same thing.
I'd prefer to see someone making a back 9 charge on Sunday by making birdies rather than because the guy in front is making bogeys and the chasers are making pars.

 

[Papas1982]

I've got £10 e/w on both Mickelson and Schauffele at 40's from earlier in the season and have just gone 5 e/w for Woodland at 70's.

 

[Captainron]

The weather is going to be milder than expected but it won't rain. Varies between highs of 17 and 18 but the morning groupings will have 13 or 14 to start with.

Faldo has been saying recently that Tiger prefers the hotter weather with his back. It takes that bit longer to get warmed up when it's cold and to keep it loose through the round will be tough.

 

[inc0gnito]

Is this broadcast for free anywhere over the weekend?

 

[Humpy]

I may have a punt on GMac. Played well over the weekend, qualified for The Open so he'll be able to freewheel a bit plus he has form at Pebble Beach.

 

[Steve Bamford]

The perfect course and time for Tiger to land his 16th Major title IMO.

 

[karlcole]

Noticed the time difference is pretty large to pebal beach so may be a few late nights coming up. Anyone know what time the last group will tee off UK time on Sunday?

 

[Norrin Radd]

Paul Casey will be in the mix as will Tiger and also an outside chance for Patrick Reed who is due a good tournament and im sure will be ready .