Tiger will win 2014 Open
- Thread starter CMAC
- Start date
triple_bogey
Tour Rookie
Val
Ryder Cup Winner
So let me get this right, you back history over form?
Many players have own tournaments pre open and then not done anything at majors. Wasn't mickelson the first to ever win the week before the open and then the open?
as per the bookings, Rose is more likely too. But I wouldn't say there is great value in his bet as 12's or so don't make it a viable ew bet.
Val
Ryder Cup Winner
All very true but that wasn't my question. Do you back history over form? You suggest form but not at they odds. I'd also suggest form and I'll give you a guy in good links form who may be a good EW bet, Marc Warren, 3rd in the Scottish Open and won at final qualifying at Glasgow Gailes odds of 150/1.
Fair play to you if it comes in. But I would suggest a quali is a whole lot different to the Open. Places don't really effect my thoughts on bets either. Getting over the line does.
Re you're original question. I think can be equally important. Granted with woods his recent from at majors hasn't been great as far as winning them is concerned. But, say this was 2001. If woods had missed a couple of events and someone won a few events. Wouod you have backed them of him.
As as the saying goes. Class is permanent, form is temporary.
peterlav
Challenge Tour Pro
Really don't think Woods has any chance. I've had a little bet on him to miss the cut
Val
Ryder Cup Winner
Maybe in 2001 as he'd just won a few majors recently, right now he hasn't won a major in 6 years, he hasn't really hit a ball in anger in months and has just recovered from back surgery. It doesn't give any indication. That he'll be in the hunt at all, the fact that the odds are shorter for him missing the cut than winning it says a lot.
We'll know soon enough.
Scrindle
Head Pro
Birchy explained it pretty well but essentially you can think of it like this. In traditional betting you go to a bookie and pay your money for a betting slip. If you win you win and if you lose, you walk away.
An easy way to think about Betfair is like a stock exchange. If you buy Tiger Woods Open Championship 2014 shares for a low price from speculators who think he'll probably do poorly, and then sell your shares back to the speculators when he is doing better than expected, for a higher price, you'll make money regardless of how he does in the end because you've already profited from your shares before the final result has come in.
It allows you to step into the shoes of the punter and the bookie, at the same time, which creates an interesting opportunity. Since you're backing a result and then laying the same result (betting against it) at different odds, on an exchange, you can use some of your 'theoretical profit' to fund the lay since you're basically matching your own bet once all the bets made on the 'market' have been reconciled by the gambling company (Betfair, in this instance).
If I use an example it may help.
To make the figures simple let's say that I have backed Tiger to win at odds of 20/1 for £10. I would end up with a £190 profit if he did so. The first round finishes and Tiger has had a random storm and is leading by 3 or 4 strokes. Everyone suddenly gets Tiger Fever and the odds drop down to 5/1 for him to win. If I then bet against Tiger at odds of 5/1 with a liability of, say, £160, taken from the £190 of profit from my first bet should it come through, I would end up with a situation where no matter what the result of the Open is, I win £30 either way, having only risked £10 in the first place. Essentially, it is the same as 'cashing out' at higher odds to limit your losses, except that you're cashing out at lower odds to make a profit that is outcome independent.
The return on the above example isn't particularly very good since the odds aren't going to flip very much, given the circumstances, but it may happen.
Typically you would do this during something like a tennis match where someone like Federer is playing against a not very good player and his betting odds are virtually 1 to 1 (let's say decimal odds of 1.02 or something). You could bet against Federer winning for £1,000 while only risking £20 yourself because the odds are so low (£1,000 x 1.02 = £20 liability for £1,000 return). All that has to happen is for Federer's serve to be broken and the odds might raise to something like 1.4/1.5, at which point you can immediately place another bet in favour of him winning this time, using your 'theoretical winnings', of £600 for example which would give you a situation where you end up winning £400 regardless of the outcome of the match.
You need a predictable sport like tennis to do it reliably. Golf isn't very good for it, ironically, but I think the potential is there so it's worth a punt for a tenner!
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thanks for trying to explain it- still havent a clue
and the reason I only do casino gambling...occasionaly
Slab
Occasional Tour Caddy
Welcome Shaun
You don't need to post the same thing 4 times in different areas of the site (it makes you look like you only joined here to promote the product)
Where do you play?
You don't need to post the same thing 4 times in different areas of the site (it makes you look like you only joined here to promote the product)
Where do you play?
I've cut & pasted this so I thank you, I need to look into it and study this further :thup:
Have you you checked all players to miss the cut. All of the players have shirted odds to be cut than win. I take your points on board. Just missing the cut one is same for all players.
Bogey Bogey start, they should name a sub after him....dive dive dive 
Val
Ryder Cup Winner
I take that point I suppose.
S
Snelly
Guest
No chance. No way. Nada.
Nice to see him back though. All smiles and a proper ray of sunshine on the Links.
Nice to see him back though. All smiles and a proper ray of sunshine on the Links.
anyone can wait till he's started and over par to make a 'prediction' :rofl:
Val
Ryder Cup Winner
And many predicted from the start he wouldn't do it, I'd be surprised if he breaks par today in perfect conditions.
very possible, as with all Opens there will be some big names missing the cut, happens every year, discussing it makes it interesting.
Predicting that he wouldn't be at his best is hardly worthy of a medal, he's been out for 3 months and has played only 2 rounds prior to the Open... Lets see how many predict him missing the cut in the final major :thup:
He still hasn't missed the cut here yet so still very early days...
