Theoretical question

[turkish]

I don't think people are really getting the essence of my question- it's more to do with the unknown in a medal. I was just trying to think myself a really high risk shot tbh

The essence being that will you take on the high risk shot on when it's borderline whether you win the medal or not- given that in amateur golf there is no scoreboard or really way of knowing who is leading with what score! Some days conservative wins you it but some days going for it does too

 

[Imurg]

It really does depend on how risky this "high risk" shot is.
If high risk means a bogey, or at worse double, then its probably worth a go.
If that risk means triple or worse then it probably ain't....

 

[hines57]

You go with the shot you see! If you worry about the score, your mind's in the wrong place.....

 

[USER1999]

So you've got 230 ish left. It's only a 5 iron. If you lay up, what do you hit? Nine iron?

 

[delc]

You are playing well for your handicap in a medal and you come to the 18th hole. It's a 455 yard par 4. You hit a straight drive but it's weak and goes 215-220 yards leaving you a long(for you) 3 wood that if hit perfect you will make the green but is high risk.

You know it's going to be pretty close in the scoring for you to win

Do you hit the shot or not or take less club and play a bit safer?

thing is you can hit either shot and it works out it was the wrong shot- IE one day the safe play makes you win but the other the riskier wins you it(or lose)

What's your play on this shots for why? In amateur terms when you simply don't have a scoreboard keeping you updated it's obviously guesswork but interested in opinions

I had to make this exact decision in our Senior's medal on Thursday, this a longish par-4 with a water hazard short of the green and playing into/across wind. I had 190 yards into the green for my second shot, which was either a 3-wood or a lay up short of the water hazard. After some thought I went for the lay up with a 9-iron and a gap wedge onto the green. Missed my par putt by an inch, so made a bogey 5. Was beaten into second place by one shot, so possibly the wrong decision as it turned out, although I could have also had a disaster going for the big shot. Trouble is I will never know! :mmm:

 

[HomerJSimpson]

Depends on what trouble there is around the green, the lie, the wind direction. To be honest I wouldn't go for it and would argue the point in the OP about knowing it will be close to the win. How? I'd play percentage shot and try not to undo the hard work I'd already put in

 

[duncan mackie]

I don't think people are really getting the essence of my question- it's more to do with the unknown in a medal. I was just trying to think myself a really high risk shot tbh

The essence being that will you take on the high risk shot on when it's borderline whether you win the medal or not- given that in amateur golf there is no scoreboard or really way of knowing who is leading with what score! Some days conservative wins you it but some days going for it does too

Now you make it even easier...In the clear absence of defined need (uncertainty exists) you shouldn't go near 'high risk' - simples.

Where there's a probability associated with any potential downside you need to be able to offset this with an appropriate upside.

Don't know about missing your point - I still think you are missing mine; you are on a looser even thinking along the lines you indicate at all. In mental parlance you are so far ahead of yourself you are already doomed.

 

[Region3]

Is it high risk because you're looking at double if you miss the green in the wrong place, or because you quite often mess up a 3 wood off the deck?

 

[TheDoctor]

I didn't see it mentioned in your theoretical question, but what stroke index is this hole and do we get a shot?

If it is a hole where I get a shot, I will probably be laying up to a comfortable distance and then trying to get up and down for a par or at worst a bogey

If I don't get a shot, I will be considering how well I have played through the round with the required club for this distance, taking into account where the hazards are, where would be the safest miss and trying to play the shot that is not going to risk a high score

 

[Crawfy]

For me a 3 wood of the ground ( with accuracy) is the hardest shot in golf. I would look to flush a 5 iron ( less risky than a chunked 4 iron) and then trust my (relatively) short game to get me up and down.

I would lean on the strongest part of my game to get the score I want.