Theoretical question

[turkish]

You are playing well for your handicap in a medal and you come to the 18th hole. It's a 455 yard par 4. You hit a straight drive but it's weak and goes 215-220 yards leaving you a long(for you) 3 wood that if hit perfect you will make the green but is high risk.

You know it's going to be pretty close in the scoring for you to win

Do you hit the shot or not or take less club and play a bit safer?

thing is you can hit either shot and it works out it was the wrong shot- IE one day the safe play makes you win but the other the riskier wins you it(or lose)

What's your play on this shots for why? In amateur terms when you simply don't have a scoreboard keeping you updated it's obviously guesswork but interested in opinions

 

[patricks148]

You are playing well for your handicap in a medal and you come to the 18th hole. It's a 455 yard par 4. You hit a straight drive but it's weak and goes 215-220 yards leaving you a long(for you) 3 wood that if hit perfect you will make the green but is high risk.

You know it's going to be pretty close in the scoring for you to win

Do you hit the shot or not or take less club and play a bit safer?

thing is you can hit either shot and it works out it was the wrong shot- IE one day the safe play makes you win but the other the riskier wins you it(or lose)

What's your play on this shots for why? In amateur terms when you simply don't have a scoreboard keeping you updated it's obviously guesswork but interested in opinions

if i had a good lye i would go for it if not take a safe option hit it to where i could play to the green.

 

[Farneyman]

Would also depend on conditions.

 

[Bratty]

As it's the 18th, it would also depend on how my 3wood versus my short game had been all round.

I usually go for it, which is why I've never won a medal! :rofl:

 

[turkish]

Let's say not amazing conditions but ok lie and ok conditions

 

[drs1878]

Go for it...... I can make just as much of a mess with a safe 7iron or the wedge shot that follows!!

 

[Farneyman]

Let's say not amazing conditions but ok lie and ok conditions

I would go for it. Only way to get better is trying harder shots.

 

[Face breaker]

Our 11th is a "520yd/P5" I took a "3 wood" off the T and another "3 wood" which left me 20yds or so short of the green, I then took my 56* wedge and put it to within 18" of the hole and a single putt gave me my first "one under" so my answer is "Yep I'd go for it" every time !...:thup:

 

[louise_a]

I would be inclined to protect what I had, get close in two and there is still a chance of a chip and a putt to make par.

 

[walliams8]

Knock a 4 iron up there will get me close enough for a chip and a putt .

 

[williamalex1]

With my limited ability I would be laying up.
Is there not a ditch or a burn just short of the last green

I've only played there once [ so far ] courtesy of Virtuocity .

 

[Imurg]

If I needed to hit the 3 wood perfectly to make the green and its a high risk shot then its not the shot to play unless you know you need the par or better to win.
Lay up to about 80-100 yards, or whatever distance is preferred, and try to pitch and putt for the par.
Relying on a "perfect" shot to make a score is a recipe for running up a much bigger number.

 

[Hobbit]

Go for it! No one remembers second.

At our level, laying up is pretty much guaranteeing a bogey anyway.

 

[Joff]

If the lie is ok I'd go for it, without doubt.

 

[Dellboy]

So 230 ish to go, I myself would lay up with a 7 iron, leaving myself a 50-60 chip and putt for par.

Yes on a really good day, wind behind I might reach with a 3 wood but it would have to be a cracker, so I would play safe.

 

[virtuocity]

From that distance, it's probably a 1 in 20 shot of hitting the green. With those odds, I'd be looking to take the danger out of play.

Less hypothetically, the 18th green doesn't have a lot of danger other than some crap way right and left and some pretty typical green side bunkers. Back to the odds; pick the club that will give you a 9/10 chance of making good contact and hitting reasonably straight.

 

[Jack_bfc]

For me it would also depend on the position of greenside hazards as well..

Although anything over 200 in and I am looking to lay up!

 

[mcbroon]

Go for it. If you make a mess of the layup, you could still be 200yds from the green. Make a mess of the 3wood, you're likely to be closer than that, unless you really honk it up.

 

[luke123]

If you go for it and mess it up that will be playing on your mind which could cost you in the putting?

 

[duncan mackie]

Simply not enough information to make what is essentially an easy decision.
1. What is the nature of these risks? If the answer is that if you miss the green you make a 5 and you need a 4 then move on to 2...
2. There are 230 yd shots that play 230, and there are 230 yd shots that play a lot less, especially at this time of year.
3. If I'm on the green is a 4 gt?
4. Where's the flag?
5. Is a 4 enough?

Putting all the above in play it becomes much easier to make a constructive decision.
As extremes - large bunkers right and left with the flag at the back of the green and no great penalty long, bit of roll available onto the green ... no real decision - play normal shot and deal with consequences.
Or
Raised green with the flag on the front - cavernous bunker cut into the front from which up and down unlikely to that pin and trouble long...unless needing a 3 it's dubious whether trying to float in a high 220 yd shot is in the armory of anyone for whom such laboured thought processes aren't second nature.

As an aside I always think it's funny that people get into such things on the 18th - the trick is to start with your first shot to the first hole and do it automatically all the time!