The Next Labour leader

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

So annoyed by Labour letting so many down I think I might go and join my local Labour Party. Labour has got to change and that change has to start now. Corbyn has to go - take McDonnell with him. Unfortunately Momentum seem to have such a grip - and I already hear the call go out - It was Brexit. The policies are popular. I dunno.

Some certainly are. With Brexit out of the way maybe there is opportunity for another leader to come in; listen and find out the few key things that their lost support desperately seeks (not what you think they need) - and focus just on these few things; Oppose the Conservatives on policy specifically related to the key concerns - and highlight their failings when they arise; become an intelligent Opposition and over time develop into a credible alternative. Then next time focus on where the government has not delivered on these key things, and explain why it need not be like that - how and why it can be different with Labour. Then with humility ask for public support.

It seems a long trek - but every long journey starts with one footstep - you don't eat an elephant in one go - you eat it one mouthful at a time. You just have to start.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

They'll certainly need to. It was said last night that it's a 10 year government as no party has ever clawed back a loss as big as this to gain power in the next election

Think with sorting out brexit and then letting any dust settle, will probably take 10-15 years. I am fairly neutral on the brexit issue and think there will be damage caused by it(no where near what some people have predicted, but 3-10% effect over a number of years, so may not even be measureable depending on other economic factors, as it will be a slow leakage of jobs, as companies relocate accordingly. It is already going on)

Longer/medium term will be the more interesting times and if we can really push and move forward 'on our own'. Hope the split up of the UK never happens, we are far better as one nation, I would say that, as in my eyes, as I am British not English or European said me as a remainer.

If labour rebuild properly, not sure the torys will get the 10 years to recover from any fall out from Brexit(as brexit means far to many different things to people and there is no quick fixing/doing Brexit), going to be interesting for sure.

Must be a great time to study economics at School/college/uni.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

They'll certainly need to. It was said last night that it's a 10 year government as no party has ever clawed back a loss as big as this to gain power in the next election

I think that was based on the exit polls, Tony Blair gained a 145 seats to win his first term in 97.

 

[User62651]

Oddities observed with our political system. Behind the Tory triumph all is not quite as it seems.

1. LibDems increased their vote share by 4.2% (over 1 million votes) on 2017 yet lost a seat (and their leader).
2. SNP increased their vote share from 2017 by a meagre 0.8% but won an extra 13 seats.
3. Similarly Johnson's Tories got 43.6% vote share against May getting 42.4% in 2017 so only 1.2% more vote share yet turned that into an 80 (tbc) seat majority rather than May's minority.
4. Lib Dems improved the most of all parties since 2017 yet we are told they performed badly.
5. Scottish Independence is back on the agenda yet SNP did not get near 50%, bang on 45% exactly where they were for Indyref 5 + years ago and many SNP votes are just anti-Johnson, not necessarily pro independence.
6. Boris lauded for his amazing election yet he didn't improve much on 'hapless' May's numbers from 2017. Clearly the headlines are his seat gains from Labour but to only beat May by 1.2% he has clearly lost a lot of votes in his existing Tory seats - how does that bode for next time if Labour resurrect themselves as credible?
7. Tories keeping 6 seats in Scotland is significant I think, a 25.1% vote share in Scotland (down 3.5% is not as bad as expected), this is likely the Ruth Davidson factor.
8. Brexit Party despite all the coverage and Euro result returned 0 MPs. Yet Farage continues to get massively disproportional media coverage. Wish he'd disappear with Corbyn.

The Labour performance at 32.2% down from 40.0% in 2017 is the real story of yesterday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results


Upside for me is that as Johnson has a good majority he doesn't need to listen to the ERG- Baker and Francoise etc. He doesn't need to heed Foster and Co (who lost 2 seats ) He doesn't need to heed Farage as much. With 'dangerous' Corbyn gone soon and Brexit resolved (hopefully) the Govt will actually have to perform on NHS, policing, education etc etc and hopefully there will be a decent Opposition led by a moderate to hold them to account.

Whilst I'm not Johnson's greatest fan i am prepared to give him a go. His speech was reasonably gracious to be fair, If he can improve things for all UK people then the long running UK 'issues' may die down.


edit:
next Labour leader (if they kept their seats!) either Cooper or Starmer.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

Oddities observed with our political system. Behind the Tory triumph all is not quite as it seems.

1. LibDems increased their vote share by 4.2% (over 1 million votes) on 2017 yet lost a seat (and their leader).
2. SNP increased their vote share from 2017 by a meagre 0.8% but won an extra 13 seats.
3. Similarly Johnson's Tories got 43.6% vote share against May getting 42.4% in 2017 so only 1.2% more vote share yet turned that into an 80 (tbc) seat majority rather than May's minority.
4. Lib Dems improved the most of all parties since 2017 yet we are told they performed badly.
5. Scottish Independence is back on the agenda yet SNP did not get near 50%, bang on 45% exactly where they were for Indyref 5 + years ago and many SNP votes are just anti-Johnson, not necessarily pro independence.
6. Boris lauded for his amazing election yet he didn't improve much on 'hapless' May's numbers from 2017. Clearly the headlines are his seat gains from Labour but to only beat May by 1.2% he has clearly lost a lot of votes in his existing Tory seats - how does that bode for next time if Labour resurrect themselves as credible?
7. Tories keeping 6 seats in Scotland is significant I think, a 25.1% vote share in Scotland (down 3.5% is not as bad as expected), this is likely the Ruth Davidson factor.
8. Brexit Party despite all the coverage and Euro result returned 0 MPs. Yet Farage continues to get massively disproportional media coverage. Wish he'd disappear with Corbyn.

The Labour performance at 32.2% down from 40.0% in 2017 is the real story of yesterday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results


Upside for me is that as Johnson has a good majority he doesn't need to listen to the ERG- Baker and Francoise etc. He doesn't need to heed Foster and Co (who lost 2 seats ) He doesn't need to heed Farage as much. With 'dangerous' Corbyn gone soon and Brexit resolved (hopefully) the Govt will actually have to perform on NHS, policing, education etc etc and hopefully there will be a decent Opposition led by a moderate to hold them to account.

Whilst I'm not Johnson's greatest fan i am prepared to give him a go. His speech was reasonably gracious to be fair, If he can improve things for all UK people then the long running UK 'issues' may die down.

Were did the figures come from? Interested to see if Brexit Party took votes off both Labour and tory, ie, would boris have done better than the % suggests in seats were it was a straight Labour v tory contest or did Brexit Party take votes off both?

 

[User62651]

Were did the figures come from? Interested to see if Brexit Party took votes off both Labour and tory, ie, would boris have done better than the % suggests in seats were it was a straight Labour v tory contest or did Brexit Party take votes off both?

link in my thread- bbc source, tabs showing results by all UK or component parts.

 

[harpo_72]

Oddities observed with our political system. Behind the Tory triumph all is not quite as it seems.

1. LibDems increased their vote share by 4.2% (over 1 million votes) on 2017 yet lost a seat (and their leader).
2. SNP increased their vote share from 2017 by a meagre 0.8% but won an extra 13 seats.
3. Similarly Johnson's Tories got 43.6% vote share against May getting 42.4% in 2017 so only 1.2% more vote share yet turned that into an 80 (tbc) seat majority rather than May's minority.
4. Lib Dems improved the most of all parties since 2017 yet we are told they performed badly.
5. Scottish Independence is back on the agenda yet SNP did not get near 50%, bang on 45% exactly where they were for Indyref 5 + years ago and many SNP votes are just anti-Johnson, not necessarily pro independence.
6. Boris lauded for his amazing election yet he didn't improve much on 'hapless' May's numbers from 2017. Clearly the headlines are his seat gains from Labour but to only beat May by 1.2% he has clearly lost a lot of votes in his existing Tory seats - how does that bode for next time if Labour resurrect themselves as credible?
7. Tories keeping 6 seats in Scotland is significant I think, a 25.1% vote share in Scotland (down 3.5% is not as bad as expected), this is likely the Ruth Davidson factor.
8. Brexit Party despite all the coverage and Euro result returned 0 MPs. Yet Farage continues to get massively disproportional media coverage. Wish he'd disappear with Corbyn.

The Labour performance at 32.2% down from 40.0% in 2017 is the real story of yesterday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results


Upside for me is that as Johnson has a good majority he doesn't need to listen to the ERG- Baker and Francoise etc. He doesn't need to heed Foster and Co (who lost 2 seats ) He doesn't need to heed Farage as much. With 'dangerous' Corbyn gone soon and Brexit resolved (hopefully) the Govt will actually have to perform on NHS, policing, education etc etc and hopefully there will be a decent Opposition led by a moderate to hold them to account.

Whilst I'm not Johnson's greatest fan i am prepared to give him a go. His speech was reasonably gracious to be fair, If he can improve things for all UK people then the long running UK 'issues' may die down.


edit:
next Labour leader (if they kept their seats!) either Cooper or Starmer.

I am pretty sure reading the fall out, labour won't recover very swiftly ! However we have all neglected to mention the Liberals and they occupy that middle ground. Unfortunately and I quote my wife here, "Swinson was just a school run mum and the Liberals need a man leading them" ... I did need to find something to prop myself up, as my wife loves to issue orders

Boris has 2 years to show a visible difference and keep the house 5 years to deliver a good proportion, failure to do so will see his media support start to crumble .. oh and I bet the new Labour leader eats babies..

 

[Taz]

I am pretty sure reading the fall out, labour won't recover very swiftly ! However we have all neglected to mention the Liberals and they occupy that middle ground. Unfortunately and I quote my wife here, "Swinson was just a school run mum and the Liberals need a man leading them" ... I did need to find something to prop myself up, as my wife loves to issue orders

Boris has 2 years to show a visible difference and keep the house 5 years to deliver a good proportion, failure to do so will see his media support start to crumble .. oh and I bet the new Labour leader eats babies..

Rumour is Layla Moran is next in the firing line as leader, another one who was like a rabbit in the headlights in pre election interviews.

 

[Deleted member 21784]

I am pretty sure reading the fall out, labour won't recover very swiftly ! However we have all neglected to mention the Liberals and they occupy that middle ground. Unfortunately and I quote my wife here, "Swinson was just a school run mum and the Liberals need a man leading them" ... I did need to find something to prop myself up, as my wife loves to issue orders

Boris has 2 years to show a visible difference and keep the house 5 years to deliver a good proportion, failure to do so will see his media support start to crumble .. oh and I bet the new Labour leader eats babies..

Stuff you can't say but sometimes does play in the minds of people! (When it shouldn't)

For example the labour candidate from my area was 22 years old for one and the bit you can't let influence the vote but will of for a lot of voters (bearing in mind it's a very much white middle class area with older money) was a young black lady. Nothing wrong with that at all btw but in a borough that disgustingly had a BNP candidate running I don't think it was the best choice to win votes! She won mine however

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Just heard a very good point by Chris Mason on Radio 5 that the way the party is currently structures it is very much for a far left type leader. So if you got a Kier Starmer type then there would be a lot of infighting and squabbling that would play straight into the Tories hands. Some momentum types are pushing Angela Rayner who I personally think would not lay a blow on Boris and they would be in the same position at the next election. Jess Phillips is being mentioned a bit and I do like her, but not sure if all the party would support her in its current guise. So unless the party starts to reconfigure itself then you could argue it does not overly mater who the next leader is.

In it's leader I am convinced that the Labour Party needs a voice that strikes of authenticity to those voters who have deserted it - and who will desert it further if things do not change. Without authenticity there can be no trust. So start with authenticity and build trust.

 

[Jacko_G]

Stuff you can't say but sometimes does play in the minds of people! (When it shouldn't)

For example the labour candidate from my area was 22 years old for one and the bit you can't let influence the vote but will of for a lot of voters (bearing in mind it's a very much white middle class area with older money) was a young black lady. Nothing wrong with that at all btw but in a borough that disgustingly had a BNP candidate running I don't think it was the best choice to win votes! She won mine however

My MP is only 25 and she is absolutely brilliant, doesn't mince her words, doesn't hold back and is very much respected for the staunch work she does.

Age is no barrier if you have the ability to back it up. I personally have huge respect for her.

 

[fundy]

In it's leader I am convinced that the Labour Party needs a voice that strikes of authenticity to those voters who have deserted it - and who will desert it further if things do not change. Without authenticity there can be no trust. So start with authenticity and build trust.

authenticity of what? what do the labour party stand for currently and what is their identity? far left or centre left as they cant be both as theyve comfortably proven

 

[Deleted member 21784]

My MP is only 25 and she is absolutely brilliant, doesn't mince her words, doesn't hold back and is very much respected for the staunch work she does.

Age is no barrier if you have the ability to back it up. I personally have huge respect for her.

In your area yes .. knowing your audience

Hadn't even heard of our candidate before this election and didn't see her out once

Our mp is Julia Lopez 34 years old only came in 2 years ago when dame Angelia stood down after many many years .. easy seat to win in a massive Tory majority

 

[Wolf]

My MP is only 25 and she is absolutely brilliant, doesn't mince her words, doesn't hold back and is very much respected for the staunch work she does.

Age is no barrier if you have the ability to back it up. I personally have huge respect for her.

I completely agree with you on this. In the run up to this I got to meet our Conservative candidate a 42 year old female Dr, when I spoke to her there was no real drive, had no answers about what she would do in our local area could only tell me they'll get Brexit done and kept telling me how bad other candidates are locally instead of what she could do , add to that her leaflets were littered with grammar and spelling errors didn't give much confidence in her checking what she said or does.

Then there was our Lib Dem candidate a 19 year old lad, who spoke well had a real desire to improve local issues, when he spoke of other candidates he never once said a derogatory comment instead said he'd rather be judged on his ability to deliver than talk down others.

I know where my vote went and age was not factor its about what people stand for thats important. Sadly this is what labour has lost, its credibility with the voting public and it won't regain it until radical change happens by ridding themselves of momentum.

 

[Deleted member 21784]

I completely agree with you on this. In the run up to this I got to meet our Conservative candidate a 42 year old female Dr, when I spoke to her there was no real drive, had no answers about what she would do in our local area could only tell me they'll get Brexit done and kept telling me how bad other candidates are locally instead of what she could do , add to that her leaflets were littered with grammar and spelling errors didn't give much confidence in her checking what she said or does.

Then there was our Lib Dem candidate a 19 year old lad, who spoke well had a real desire to improve local issues, when he spoke of other candidates he never once said a derogatory comment instead said he'd rather be judged on his ability to deliver than talk down others.

I know where my vote went and age was not factor its about what people stand for thata important.

Again knowing the audience

Our borough with the BNP running and getting 500 votes (awful they even ran) in a massive leave borough with the main issue being immigration just seemed like a very weird choice

 

[Hobbit]

Its a tough one for Labour. Should one man go, Corbyn, or should it include McDonnell and Gardiner? Is Momentum part of the problem?

Who next to take up the poisoned chalice?

Starmer, Long-Bailey, Yvette Cooper? Until his minor cock-up I would have gone for Jonathan Ashworth. Nice, straight talking guy who speaks with honesty and sincerity.

 

[Swango1980]

Russell Brand

 

[patricks148]

I completely agree with you on this. In the run up to this I got to meet our Conservative candidate a 42 year old female Dr, when I spoke to her there was no real drive, had no answers about what she would do in our local area could only tell me they'll get Brexit done and kept telling me how bad other candidates are locally instead of what she could do , add to that her leaflets were littered with grammar and spelling errors didn't give much confidence in her checking what she said or does.

Then there was our Lib Dem candidate a 19 year old lad, who spoke well had a real desire to improve local issues, when he spoke of other candidates he never once said a derogatory comment instead said he'd rather be judged on his ability to deliver than talk down others.

I know where my vote went and age was not factor its about what people stand for thats important. Sadly this is what labour has lost, its credibility with the voting public and it won't regain it until radical change happens by ridding themselves of momentum.

the labour leader is voted on by the party members and from what i've been told the majority want a more left wing labour, i can't see that changing.

 

[Wolf]

Again knowing the audience

Our borough with the BNP running and getting 500 votes (awful they even ran) in a massive leave borough with the main issue being immigration just seemed like a very weird choice

That's my point though in my last sentence. Labour don't seem to know their audience, the polls have proven that along with all the in fighting they currently have.

 

[User62651]

I am pretty sure reading the fall out, labour won't recover very swiftly ! However we have all neglected to mention the Liberals and they occupy that middle ground. Unfortunately and I quote my wife here, "Swinson was just a school run mum and the Liberals need a man leading them" ... I did need to find something to prop myself up, as my wife loves to issue orders

Boris has 2 years to show a visible difference and keep the house 5 years to deliver a good proportion, failure to do so will see his media support start to crumble .. oh and I bet the new Labour leader eats babies..

What i can't quite get is why Corbyn got 40% in 2017 (not so long ago) and had crowds singing his name, yet 2.5 years later despite appearing to be the same bloke, many voters deserted him. Tory Govt has been pretty terrible during that intervening period too.

What changed so much?

seems Tory PR machine got it's anti Corbyn message through better this time somehow.

Frustrated Leave voters in Labour working class areas seems to be the difference as Conservatives have loads more seats without much of an increase in overall vote share since 2017.