3offTheTee
Tour Rookie
4 of us played today with handicaps of 11,12, 16 and 21.
On par 4 SI 3 we all had pars.
What is the probability of this happening?
On par 4 SI 3 we all had pars.
What is the probability of this happening?
Probability question for Maths experts
- Thread starter 3offTheTee
- Start date
Crow
Crow Person
0.723%
duncan mackie
Money List Winner
I have it at 0.7225% - agree it should be rounded up here.
Crow
Crow Person
I didn't want to go beyond three decimal places as the OP didn't say what colour socks they were all wearing.
Robster59
Tour Rookie
You think they worked it out!? ðŸ˜
Crow
Crow Person
I used a basic formula, hence the need to be approximate.
Having checked the mean temperature for Cumbria today and so determined how many layers of clothing needed to be worn, I then factored in the average age of the group together with the biscuit type eaten during the round, divided this by how far you can each hit a 5 iron (metres) and squared the result by the quality of the sausage cobs eaten before play commenced.
All that then remained to be done was to apply a constant that only maths experts know, and Bob's your uncle.
Having checked the mean temperature for Cumbria today and so determined how many layers of clothing needed to be worn, I then factored in the average age of the group together with the biscuit type eaten during the round, divided this by how far you can each hit a 5 iron (metres) and squared the result by the quality of the sausage cobs eaten before play commenced.
All that then remained to be done was to apply a constant that only maths experts know, and Bob's your uncle.
net or gross?
KenL
Tour Rookie
SI has often no relevance to hole difficulty so I don't think you can make a valid calculation.
I just think you all got big gimmies!
I just think you all got big gimmies!
Pathetic Shark
Tour Rookie
The probability would increase dramatically if it was a team event combination of best scores on a hole.
backwoodsman
Tour Winner
Which is why you got the wrong answer of 0.723 - surely everyone knows it's my Aunt Fanny, and not Bob's your uncle.
Mr Hip
Medal Winner
Always wanted an Uncle Bob!
ger147
Tour Winner
42...
richart
Major Champion
Playing with Drive4Show, his mate and the lovely Louise, all four of us birdied the par five 3rd on the Berkshire Red Course. Odds on that must be pretty low as D4S is a right chomper.
jusme
Challenge Tour Pro
Odds on all parring is short but not ridiculous. I have been part of a 4 ball where all 4 have birdied more than once.
SwingsitlikeHogan
Major Champion
And depends upon whether all four get a par at the same time or one after the other - maybe...
Bigfoot
Tour Rookie
I think I would prefer an Aunt Fanny !
Pathetic Shark
Tour Rookie
I once halved a par-5 in eagles.
"Bob's your auntie's live-in lover" Mike the Cool Person, The Young Ones, 1982.
"Bob's your auntie's live-in lover" Mike the Cool Person, The Young Ones, 1982.
trevor
Head Pro
Ha ha like it, the answer to everything.
Grant85
Head Pro
I don't believe you have enough information to really have a stab at working this out with any reasonable degree of accuracy.
Stroke Index 3 notionally means it is the 3rd most difficult hole relative to par. However in reality this is not awarded based solely on scoring average.
However probably the SI is less important than scoring numbers for each of the 4 players, with recent information carrying more weight. This would be far more useful than their handicap as well.
Guesstimate the odds are probably in the region of 2000/1 with a lot resting on the type of player the 21 handicapper is.
i.e. is he capable of a wee run of pars but then has a few wides and the game goes to pot. Or is he more of a steady bogey / double bogey golfer who rarely has any GIRs.
