Jordan Speith

[G.U.R]

Speith appears to be a lot more consistent than Rory, agree when both on form Rory would win but over a season think Jordan would edge it. Will be interesting to see if he takes the Nike Dollar and with it the change of clubs and ball and seeing how he handles it.

 

[Val]

Is he better than Rory? Or just more consistent....

Neither, 3 wins in 12 months inc 2 majors where Rory has 6 wins inc 2 majors and 2 WGC's.

 

[freddielong]

Was it Gary Player that said the harder I work the luckier I get, if that is true no one anywhere works harder than Spieth he just doesn't get bad bounces no matter how poor a shot he hits.

 

[jp5]

Was it Gary Player that said the harder I work the luckier I get, if that is true no one anywhere works harder than Spieth he just doesn't get bad bounces no matter how poor a shot he hits.

Eh? Of course he gets the same bounces as anyone else does.

 

[robert.redmile]

you can get him at 7/1 for the Open and 7/1 for the USPGA. Take them as a double for 63/1.

doesn't work like that I'm afraid. This type of bet is called a "related contingency". The odds on him winning the USPGA are 7-1 NOW.

If he wins the Open, then clearly he is playing well, and in a rich vein of form, therefore his odds would fall to something like 4-1. That way the double would become 39-1 (so the 33-1 is still poor value)

Think of backing a horse to win the guineas, and then the Derby - if he wins the guineas then the chances of him winning the derby increase - so odds of 5-1 to win the guineas, and 5-1 to win the Derby do not form a 35-1 double. If he wins the guineas, then he will be less than 5-1 to win the Derby.

Or, think about backing Rooney to score the first goal at 4-1 and England to win the game at 2-1- you cannot double the 2 in the same the bet, as the chances of England winning the game increase massively if Rooney scores the first goal.

It's not bookmakers ripping anyone off (they often do, but not in these instances), it's a mathematical fact, that if "A" wins "x", then the chances of him winning "Y" increase.
As I say, it's called "related contingency" - google it.

cheers, Rob (ex Bookmaker (failed))

 

[Hacker Khan]

On the whole I agree.

For me, Speith has the potential to generate a significant amount of youth interest in the game. More than Tiger did.

Similar to the Rickie Fowler effect, but with more success.

There's something very media friendly about Speith. He conveys himself very well and never seems to dodge a question.

He may have an impact in the US. But in the UK I bet if you stopped 100 youths on the street and showed his picture to them then 1, perhaps 2 would be able to name him. Add in a few more majors and you'd be looking at 5 possibly, especially once the Open goes of BBC.

If you compare Jack with Tiger I bet Jack would get 10 max, Tiger into the 40s or 50s at least.

 

[Deleted Member 1156]

Rob, if you backed him to win both and took fixed price odds, is that not equivalent to a 63/1 double?

Gordon (part time failed gambler)

 

[Region3]

Rob, if you backed him to win both and took fixed price odds, is that not equivalent to a 63/1 double?

Gordon (part time failed gambler)

No, because if for example you want a £1 double, where does the £8 on the second leg of the bet come from before the first one has won?

 

[paddyc]

Cant see him winning at St Andrews.

 

[One Planer]

Cant see him winning at St Andrews.

Out of interest.

With him winning at Chambers Bay, why not?

 

[CheltenhamHacker]

No, because if for example you want a £1 double, where does the £8 on the second leg of the bet come from before the first one has won?

I can't see why this wouldn't work. I can put a double on Jordan to win the Open (6/1), and Rory to win the PGA (5/1) and get 41/1 as a double. the only reason I can't do this for Jordan to win both is the bookies stopping it (as they want to push their "special" I guess.

 

[Region3]

I can't see why this wouldn't work. I can put a double on Jordan to win the Open (6/1), and Rory to win the PGA (5/1) and get 41/1 as a double. the only reason I can't do this for Jordan to win both is the bookies stopping it (as they want to push their "special" I guess.

This has already been explained.

 

[HawkeyeMS]

Spieth is riding a wave right now, and a damn big wave. At their best, head to head Rory would win IMHO. What Spieth does better than Rory is grind out a decent finish when he doesn't have his 'A' game.

However as Rory said, he'd rather have two missed cuts and two wins in 4 tournaments that 4 top tens

 

[paddyc]

Out of interest.

With him winning at Chambers Bay, why not?

A lot of the European boys play St Andrews every year in the Alfred Dunhill Links and know the course inside out.He's not going to have the course knowledge that our guys have,thats why i cant see him winning.

 

[HawkeyeMS]

A lot of the European boys play St Andrews every year in the Alfred Dunhill Links and know the course inside out.He's not going to have the course knowledge that our guys have,thats why i cant see him winning.

The last British winner at St Andrew's was 25 years ago so it isn't exactly helping is it?

 

[Tigerslam1]

The bookies really think the GRANDSLAM is impossible. This SPIETH is fearless. If anyone has a chance to do it he does. I'm glad he has arrived and RORY WONT have it all his way.

I will put a tenner on the next two majors in a double. SPIETH over the next few years is going to be a betting gold mine. I think he has a chance to challenge Tigers modern day record of 14 slams. And that would be some achievement...

 

[MashieNiblick]

Trying to work out what it is that is giving Speith the edge at the moment. Is it his mental strength, consistency, putting? With Tiger (and Rory) it was easier to see where their games were/are better than the others. Don't feel the same with Spieth. Am I missing something?

 

[MendieGK]

I really like Spieth but I don't think he'll dominate like people think. This year he is joking around 3putts over 25ft a round, if he doesn't then he isn't challenging, Rory and DJ are putting badly but still competing.

I just don't see relying on holing monster putts as being a sustainable way of dominating. Hit it miles, go find it - that's how you dominate nowadays.

 

[One Planer]

Trying to work out what it is that is giving Speith the edge at the moment. Is it his mental strength, consistency, putting? With Tiger (and Rory) it was easier to see where their games were/are better than the others. Don't feel the same with Spieth. Am I missing something?

Personally Mashie, I don't think he has a weak part of his game. That's his edge.

He seems to do everything pretty sold.

Rory has too many off days with the putter. Tigers short game is in bits.

Speith just seems to do everything consistently for 4 rounds which is always going to leave him in contention.

 

[robert.redmile]

This has already been explained.

hi - my comments around related contingency are not an opinion, these are the facts!

This is one of the most confusing terms in betting, but one which must be understood in order to avoid disappointment when making multiples bets. The key principle behind related contingency is that you are not allowed to make bets where one result directly effects the price of the other. In cases where they do, the bookmaker can void the bet. Here is a simple example.

[h=3]Double Check Your Doubles![/h]Say you want to make a simple multiple on Federer to not only win the semi final at Wimbledon, but also the final. Here the bet becomes a related contingency, as the result from the first bet directly changes the price of the next – if Federer wins the semi final, his price to win the whole tournament will clearly change, and this makes it a bet that most bookmakers will not allow to be made.
Or, to use golf as an example, backing Rory to be top points scorer in the Ryder cup, doubled with Europe to win the Ryder cup - one directly affects the price of the other, hence you cannot double them in the same bet.
Related contingency is confused further by the fact that quite what is defined as one and what is not tends to change depending on the exact bookmaker involved, so make sure that you read the terms and conditions carefully, and if you have any doubts make sure you contact support before making any large bet.


Read more: http://www.sportsbookguardian.com/sportsbook-guide/related-contingency#ixzz3drqfQOhL