Indyref2

[Val]

3 life changing referendums in 4 years, that is really what the people of the UK wanted

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Thanks for confirming that SILH. How do you suppose that would have been possible? Or is this a "compromise" that is only achieved by staying in the EU? If it's not overly feasible, can it be considered a fair compromise? I could shout all day for what I want - does it count as not being compromised if what I say is unreasonable?

I simply quote from the Tory Party Manifesto for the 2015 GE (my bold)

> give you a say over whether we should stay in or leave the EU, with an in-out referendum
by the end of 2017

> reclaim power from Brussels on your behalf and safeguard British interests in the Single
Market

So according to their manifesto leaving the EU was not the same as leaving the Single Market. Else why state them separately and state that the Tories would safeguard UK interests, with that second manifesto pledge having no caveats.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

SNP has quite a few young and experienced front benchers.
Auld John Swinney blew the two main opposition party leaders out of the water when taking FMQ in Nicola's absence last week.
What makes you think Nicola would resign if the Scottish Government lose the vote ? She has a huge popularity rating.

Same reason Alex Salmond resigned, same reason David Cameron resigned. If you gamble everything on a vote that you have asked for and it goes against you then your credibility is shot. Her whole existence, her reason for being a politician is focused on this one issue. If she can't persuade the voters to back her when she has asked for their backing means she would have to go.

 

[ColchesterFC]

Surely she would be better waiting until the prospects of a deal over UK access to the single market was a bit clearer. It's been established that as Scotland is not currently an EU member it can't remain in the EU when the UK leaves and would have to apply as an independent country.

I think I would permit myself a little chuckle if wee Jimmy got her way and got a vote for independence only to find that Scotland didn't meet the entry requirements to join the EU. Meanwhile the UK government had been hard at work negotiating a deal that gives access to the single market leaving the UK in the single market and Scotland having to rely on WTO rules for access.

Wouldn't she have been better off saying that they will look at the deal that the UK negotiates with the EU and then decide if Scotland would be better off as an independent country.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Same reason Alex Salmond resigned, same reason David Cameron resigned. If you gamble everything on a vote that you have asked for and it goes against you then your credibility is shot. Her whole existence, her reason for being a politician is focused on this one issue. If she can't persuade the voters to back her when she has asked for their backing means she would have to go.

I think she'd go - but not if the SNP wanted her to stay. If they did then whether she stayed or stepped down would depend upon the SNP showing in the 2020 Westminster general election - with the Holyrood election having been moved to May 2012 to avoid a clash.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Colchester, I would agree with your last sentence but I don't think she has the patience for it. If she was calmer she should play the long game and wait as you say but she doesn't have that in her based on her actions.

 

[CheltenhamHacker]

I simply quote from the Tory Party Manifesto for the 2015 GE (my bold)

> give you a say over whether we should stay in or leave the EU, with an in-out referendum
by the end of 2017

> reclaim power from Brussels on your behalf and safeguard British interests in the Single
Market

So according to their manifesto leaving the EU was not the same as leaving the Single Market. Else why state them separately and state that the Tories would safeguard UK interests, with that second manifesto pledge having no caveats.

You're now almost C+P'ing from the A50 thread. You've also completely avoided my question. No matter what was said, IF it can't be granted, how could they have compromised? No win it seems.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Surely she would be better waiting until the prospects of a deal over UK access to the single market was a bit clearer. It's been established that as Scotland is not currently an EU member it can't remain in the EU when the UK leaves and would have to apply as an independent country.

I think I would permit myself a little chuckle if wee Jimmy got her way and got a vote for independence only to find that Scotland didn't meet the entry requirements to join the EU. Meanwhile the UK government had been hard at work negotiating a deal that gives access to the single market leaving the UK in the single market and Scotland having to rely on WTO rules for access.

Wouldn't she have been better off saying that they will look at the deal that the UK negotiates with the EU and then decide if Scotland would be better off as an independent country.

She has said that a referendum should be between Autumn 2018 and May 2019 because by that time the deal with the EU should be negotiated and with the EU27 for individual ratification. The Scottish electorate will therefore know in detail what's on offer from a post-Brexit UK.

Scotland could therefore choose to become independent BEFORE the UK leaves the EU, and Sturgeon will attempt to sell Scotland being able to remain in the EU if separation is what the electorate chooses - or at least being able to present guarantees from the EU of immediately re-entry - with exit simply being a legal requirement and part of the process,

 

[ColchesterFC]

Colchester, I would agree with your last sentence but I don't think she has the patience for it. If she was calmer she should play the long game and wait as you say but she doesn't have that in her based on her actions.

Even funnier would be if Scotland voted for independence in late 2018 and it then became clear that the EU were willing to negotiate a better deal for the UK to remain in the EU including the right to veto any new members joining. A second referendum was held early in 2019 and the UK voted to remain in the EU under these better terms and then vetoed Scotland's membership application.

 

[Val]

Even funnier would be if Scotland voted for independence in late 2018 and it then became clear that the EU were willing to negotiate a better deal for the UK to remain in the EU including the right to veto any new members joining. A second referendum was held early in 2019 and the UK voted to remain in the EU under these better terms and then vetoed Scotland's membership application.

And given that in the event of a yes vote then the talk of separating the union the timescales ie circa 2 years is similar to leaving the EU then Scotland could possibly do similar.

At the end of the day if Scotland vote yes then surely that is then 1-1 and all to play for

 

[CheltenhamHacker]

And given that in the event of a yes vote then the talk of separating the union the timescales ie circa 2 years is similar to leaving the EU then Scotland could possibly do similar.

At the end of the day if Scotland vote yes then surely that is then 1-1 and all to play for

Give it over to the rUK (I know SILH loves this acronym) for the deciding vote?

 

[Val]

Give it over to the rUK (I know SILH loves this acronym) for the deciding vote?

Foxtrot Oscar :rofl:

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Give it over to the rUK (I know SILH loves this acronym) for the deciding vote?

Would you prefer EWANI?

It's not my preference by the way. It is a commonplace shorthand.

 

[CheltenhamHacker]

Foxtrot Oscar :rofl:

Don't worry, not serious at all. I can't see the SNP losing this time though. For the sake of clarity, you have to hope it's a strong vote either way.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

And given that in the event of a yes vote then the talk of separating the union the timescales ie circa 2 years is similar to leaving the EU then Scotland could possibly do similar.

At the end of the day if Scotland vote yes then surely that is then 1-1 and all to play for

Aye - but one side or the other will have a blatant penalty turned down in injury time - and there will be all hell to pay

 

[Val]

Don't worry, not serious at all. I can't see the SNP losing this time though. For the sake of clarity, you have to hope it's a strong vote either way.

I can and I'll say it here now. This referendum wont take place due to compromise between Westminster and Holyrood.

 

[Deleted member 1418]

Of course Westminster could refuse the request for a second referendum...............!

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Of course Westminster could refuse the request for a second referendum...............!

Absolutely. After all the Westminster govt has a Brexit to deal with and this would be a major distraction. It is not Nicola Sturgeons decision to make at the end of the day.

 

[IanM]

What's the Scottish Contingent's view on Ruth Davidson? Saw her on Sky News just now and seemed to have it summed up nicely... or do all Scots hate Tories for , eh, being Tory?

 

[DCB]

I can and I'll say it here now. This referendum wont take place due to compromise between Westminster and Holyrood.

I'd like to think that will be the case, but, I somehow don't think any compromise will go far enough to satisfy the SNP. It's going to be interesting to see how their conference pans out now ..... what have they got to talk about ?