Indyref2

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I think Scotland will......

  • Vote to stay in the UK

    Votes: 43 47.3%
  • Vote to leave the UK

    Votes: 39 42.9%
  • Don't know

    Votes: 9 9.9%

  • Total voters
    91

Lord Tyrion

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Doon, what gap do you think the SNP will want before they look for another vote? 5 points consistently over a 3-5 month period or will they want more?
 

Doon frae Troon

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Doon, what gap do you think the SNP will want before they look for another vote? 5 points consistently over a 3-5 month period or will they want more?

I don't think they will go until 2020/21.
If the Tories/UKIP alliance look like winning the next election it will be an absolute shoe in for Independence.
By then I think the Yes vote should have a consistent 5-10 point lead.

The Naw vote is heavily age related......the over 65's are the strongest Unionist group whilst the under 40's are the weakest.
The joke is that a couple of cold winters will be enough.

This poll was a ball breaker........quite a few Yes/No voters will have changed sides because of Brexit.
38% of Scots who voted were in favour of Leave.

IMVHO of course;)
 

ger147

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I don't think they will go until 2020/21.
If the Tories/UKIP alliance look like winning the next election it will be an absolute shoe in for Independence.
By then I think the Yes vote should have a consistent 5-10 point lead.

The Naw vote is heavily age related......the over 65's are the strongest Unionist group whilst the under 40's are the weakest.
The joke is that a couple of cold winters will be enough.

This poll was a ball breaker........quite a few Yes/No voters will have changed sides because of Brexit.
38% of Scots who voted were in favour of Leave.

IMVHO of course;)

Have you got the actual figures without the Don't Knows removed?
 

Doon frae Troon

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Have you got the actual figures without the Don't Knows removed?

Had a search but cant find it.
Britain Elects site.

I did here some 'expert' say that the folk who changed sides more or less balanced out and that Labour seem to be leaking loads of supporters to SNP/Tories in equal numbers.
 
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SwingsitlikeHogan

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SwingsitlikeHogan

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Interesting this (albeit I don't follow regularly and with the usual caveats around use of polls) but I expected that Yes would be at least level by now. Only based on what I see/read and my feeling post Brexit that it would be a shoe in I guess but I am surprised (pleasantly ;)).

What the pollsters will say is that they are level given the bounds of uncertainty they work to - which I believe is always 2%

But as you say - usual caveat in respect of polls full stop.
 

Hobbit

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I think a hard Brexit coupled with the economic dip around the exit time could create that perfect storm for independence.
 

SwingsitlikeHogan

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I think a hard Brexit coupled with the economic dip around the exit time could create that perfect storm for independence.

Add into the mix a Labour Party under Corbyn still in a mess - and UKIP taking Labour and Tory seats in bye-elections. The Scottish electorate may well simply ask themselves what likelihood anything but a Tory Westminster government for the foreseeable future...2020, 2025, 2030? Incredible as that might seem.
 

SocketRocket

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Add into the mix a Labour Party under Corbyn still in a mess - and UKIP taking Labour and Tory seats in bye-elections. The Scottish electorate may well simply ask themselves what likelihood anything but a Tory Westminster government for the foreseeable future...2020, 2025, 2030? Incredible as that might seem.
That would still be a better option for Scotland than the wastelands they would inhabit if they went it alone.
 
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