EU Referendum

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Germany are bricking it, the possibility of us leaving. It's mainly on their shoulders (and France) to make up the shortfall of funds the eu would lose from the UK. No wonder the rest of the eu are so keen on us staying.

what shortfall?

 

[Deleted member 15344]

what shortfall?

I'm guessing he means if we left the EU then there would be a shortfall to make up

 

[ColchesterFC]

what shortfall?

Really? I almost didn't bother replying to this as I assume you are simply looking for an argument. Do you not understand that the UK is a nett contributor to the EU meaning we pay in more than we receive? Regardless of whether that amount is the fictional 350 million per week that is widely quoted or closer to the much more widely accepted figure of around 200 -250 million per week after our rebate. If the UK leaves then the EU will be receiving less money and will either have to cut their budgets or increase the contributions from the countries that remain.

 

[SocketRocket]

Thats the one!

And it will get worse as the next round of countries to join will be wanting a lot out.

 

[MarkE]

what shortfall?

I assume that if we leave and stop paying whatever the amount is, the richer nations that are left in will have to contribute more. Or make huge funding cuts wherever they see fit. What's not to understand?

 

[Doon frae Troon]

I assume that if we leave and stop paying whatever the amount is, the richer nations that are left in will have to contribute more. Or make huge funding cuts wherever they see fit. What's not to understand?

IF........ that happens surely the amount of UK to EU trade will be greatly reduced.
The EU may then decide the make up their shortfall by increasing trade tariffs to the UK.

 

[Deleted Member 1156]

IF........ that happens surely the amount of UK to EU trade will be greatly reduced.
The EU may then decide the make up their shortfall by increasing trade tariffs to the UK.

So we buy even fewer German cars and French wine/cheese and then the deficit increases even more. I don't think that would be a smart move on the EU's part.

 

[ColchesterFC]

IF........ that happens surely the amount of UK to EU trade will be greatly reduced.
The EU may then decide the make up their shortfall by increasing trade tariffs to the UK.

IF..........that happens then the UK could respond in kind and impose trade tariffs on goods being imported from the EU. As we import more from the EU than we export to them this would cost them even more money.

 

[Hobbit]

IF..........that happens then the UK could respond in kind and impose trade tariffs on goods being imported from the EU. As we import more from the EU than we export to them this would cost them even more money.

And a balance of trade tariffs in favour of the U.K. would see more money available for industry subsidies thus making UK industry even more competitive.

 

[MarkE]

IF........ that happens surely the amount of UK to EU trade will be greatly reduced.
The EU may then decide the make up their shortfall by increasing trade tariffs to the UK.

I'm sure initially both sides would impose tit for tat tariffs, but it would eventually sort itself out to be workable and beneficial to both parties. As we trade at a deficit with the eu though, it's a no lose situation for the UK. They need us more than we need them.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

...and it's all wishful thinking as Brexit seem unable to find anyone who'll describe the nature of the agreements that a Brexitted UK could strike up.

And it's perhaps worth bearing in mind (though Brexitters won't see it as an issue) that has taken the EU (since UK joined) 43yrs to build up the comprehensive and extensive network of trade and economic agreements it now has in place with the rest of the world. And we'll just extract ourselves from oall of that and start again by ourselves, good idea. But it'll be alright on the night...

But let's just see where things are today with the EU negotians on various agreements

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-13-734_en.htm

hmmm - we're going to need a lot of negotiators to be doing all that ourselves in a few months time. Never mind starting out on the ones we'll be coming out of.

But it'll be alright on the night...

 

[Old Skier]

 

[MarkE]

Yes and it's the usual doom and gloom guff spouted by the remain lobby over and over again. We are quite able to negotiate favourable trade deals worldwide. Links to memos from the european commission are hardly going to convince me otherwise.

 

[ColchesterFC]

Coming from someone that doesn't understand that removing the UK's nett contribution to the EU would leave a shortfall in their budget SiLH I think I'll take anything that you post with a pinch of salt.

 

[Hobbit]

...and it's all wishful thinking as Brexit seem unable to find anyone who'll describe the nature of the agreements that a Brexitted UK could strike up.

And it's perhaps worth bearing in mind (though Brexitters won't see it as an issue) that has taken the EU (since UK joined) 43yrs to build up the comprehensive and extensive network of trade and economic agreements it now has in place with the rest of the world. And we'll just extract ourselves from oall of that and start again by ourselves, good idea. But it'll be alright on the night...

But let's just see where things are today with the EU negotians on various agreements

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-13-734_en.htm

hmmm - we're going to need a lot of negotiators to be doing all that ourselves in a few months time. Never mind starting out on the ones we'll be coming out of.

But it'll be alright on the night...

Unless I'm mistaken the Article 50 exit negotiations can take up to two year, during which time I'm sure there would also be ongoing negotiations of the trade agreements.

It has been clearly stated, on numerous occasions, that no one knows what the outcome of those negotiations might be. But I'm sure both parties would be negotiating the best deals they can get. I'd expect some give and take.

As an aside, I heard a senior business leader on the radio a few days ago. He had a refreshingly honest take on it that didn't stop the day after the vote. It was along the lines of if we stay nothing will change in the short term. But he did pose the question of could the EU accept a relatively poor economy like Turkey into the fold? Would it be another Greece waiting to happen?

Equally, he was concerned about up to two years of uncertainty following an exit. He genuinely couldn't say if it would be a minor blip or a tsunami.

He didn't scare monger either way but equally he wasn't blasé about the potential risks.

 

[SocketRocket]

It's a bit unfair to suggest "Leave' have not come up with the same levels of propaganda as the 'Stay' group. Camo and Osbo have used the Government machine to produce the two current scaremongering documents at tax payers expense. The leave group are not allowed to do that. A very even handed approach, I don't think.

 

[FairwayDodger]

It's a bit unfair to suggest "Leave' have not come up with the same levels of propaganda as the 'Stay' group. Camo and Osbo have used the Government machine to produce the two current scaremongering documents at tax payers expense. The leave group are not allowed to do that. A very even handed approach, I don't think.

This is a non-issue, move on.

 

[SocketRocket]

This is a non-issue, move on.

To you maybe but not me and maybe a number of others; so I respectfully suggest you take your own medicine.

 

[FairwayDodger]

To you maybe but not me and maybe a number of others; so I respectfully suggest you take your own medicine.

I'm no fan of this government but I just can't see why anyone thinks the government should fund propaganda that opposes its position? Just nonsense. Has it ever happened before?

 

[Doon frae Troon]

I think the now totally debunked cost figure of £350m per week constantly quoted by the all of the Leave groups has holed the Leavers below the waterline.

They do not seem to be able to come up with another believable argument.