EU Referendum

[Doon frae Troon]

There does seem to be a desperate plea by the Government to stay in the EU, maybe there is a swing to leave.

IMO, the likelihood is we vote to leave, then EU then offers better terms, we stay in.

I do not think that is the case......it is a straight in-oot vote.
If the UK voted leave do you really think we matter that much to rEurope that they will come begging.
On the other hand do you think that the likes of Farage/Galloway/Grayling would re-negotiate to stay.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I can't see it personally. Think whatever the result, that will be it.

I think that that's going to be how it is.

 

[ger147]

There does seem to be a desperate plea by the Government to stay in the EU, maybe there is a swing to leave.

IMO, the likelihood is we vote to leave, then EU then offers better terms, we stay in.

No change according to the latest polls and still too close to call...

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

And as far as exports between the US and the UK - and the Brexit claim that there won't be any issues negotiating favourable trade agreements with the USA because the US needs the UK as much as the UK needs the US. Well let's look at the percentages.

USA to UK - 3.7% of USA exports go the UK
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/toppartners.html

UK to USA - 17% of UK exports go to the North America
http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-exports/

I don't see USA and UK having equal exporting needs of the other in these figures. Clearly the UK needs the USA market much more than they need us.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

In response to the Treasury report - which he dismissed as unlikely to be accurate in any case - John Redwood (on Jeremy Vine) has just told listeners that there is no point in Brexit coming up with a counter report because no-one believes these things anyway.

So we're just expected to believe the Brexit suppositions and assertions - with no detailed analysis to support claims such as that which Redwood just made - saying that the UK would be able to come out of austerity measures if we left as we'd have so much money to spend. As Boris would say - 'knickers'.

 

[Hacker Khan]

Current/Short term situation should not be a consideration for this issue!

UK's economy has traditionally been quicker to 'react' (in whichever direction) to world events/economy/sentiment! This sort of phenomenon is unlikely to change irrespective of whether UK is in or out of the EU.

Likewise, statistics about other countries are somewhat irrelevant if they are within 'traditional' range for the particular country - as the 'culture' of the particular country is unique to that country. Of course, there are limits to what is 'sensible'. But (and it's a 'failing' of EU imo - though there's no simple solution) most EU countries, including UK, have breached, and pretty much ignored the breach, those limits.

Speaking to a few accountants who deal in international tax matters they say one big issue is that in general, the UK does tend to play by the rules once it joins an organisation such as the EU. Where as most other countries pick and chose what things they adhere to. Which is why we tend to get more of the silly stories about the EU making bananas straight or whatever they claim. Where as other countries just ignore it and carry on as they were.

And if we stayed in and kind of took the same attitude to some of the directives like say France do then it would be a lot better.

 

[Old Skier]

If the UK voted leave do you really think we matter that much to rEurope that they will come begging.

Well all the indication from Germany is that it does matter to them. They feel it's a house of cards that won't take much to bring down.

I would immediately vote in if the PM stated there would be an immediate deduction of 400 MPs as there is so little with devolution and the EU that is left for them to do.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Speaking to a few accountants who deal in international tax matters they say one big issue is that in general, the UK does tend to play by the rules once it joins an organisation such as the EU. Where as most other countries pick and chose what things they adhere to. Which is why we tend to get more of the silly stories about the EU making bananas straight or whatever they claim. Where as other countries just ignore it and carry on as they were.

And if we stayed in and kind of took the same attitude to some of the directives like say France do then it would be a lot better.

Aye - adhere to the spirit of the regulations rather than to ever dot and cross, treating the dot and cross as a guideline and not an absolute. But that approach never really suited the 'anti-Europe' agenda. Much better to do things straight down the line and point out the costs and absurdities (mostly inconsequential). And so these pigeons are coming home to roost.

 

[MarkE]

I've just had a look at the equation the government has has released to help us plebs to understand why leaving the eu is a bad idea. http://home.bt.com/news/news-extra/...to-justify-remaining-in-the-eu-11364052656113
Well, i'm convinced.

 

[MarkE]

Maybe this one will work. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/18/can-you-solve-this-treasury-brexit-maths-problem/

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Maybe this one will work. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/18/can-you-solve-this-treasury-brexit-maths-problem/

Looks a pretty straightforward approach to modelling the impact

The most important figures from this sort of analysis are the uncertainty and significance levels - without these it's not really possible to tell much about the £4300 or £6600 figures.

 

[ColchesterFC]

Did anyone else see that the leave campaign didn't register the website www.voteleave.co.uk and it has been "Rickrolled" by a Belgian pro-EU campaigner and now takes you to a You Tube video of Risk Astley singing Never Gonna Give You Up? Or as I like to think "Never Gonna Give EU Up".

I think that the polls will stay fairly close right up to polling day and then we could get a "surprise" result of 55% + voting to stay in the EU. Similar to what happened with the Scottish referendum with people deciding on the day that it is better the devil you know rather than taking that step into the unknown and voting to leave.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Did anyone else see that the leave campaign didn't register the website www.voteleave.co.uk and it has been "Rickrolled" by a Belgian pro-EU campaigner and now takes you to a You Tube video of Risk Astley singing Never Gonna Give You Up? Or as I like to think "Never Gonna Give EU Up".

I think that the polls will stay fairly close right up to polling day and then we could get a "surprise" result of 55% + voting to stay in the EU. Similar to what happened with the Scottish referendum with people deciding on the day that it is better the devil you know rather than taking that step into the unknown and voting to leave.

My fear is that if things look tight Leave will play the immigration card a lot as they know this chimes with many. Only today I heard a Brexiteer talk of 350,000 immigrants a year coming to the UK.

This is remarkably similar to the figure that exactly 2yrs ago the ONS said immigration was underestimated by for the decade 2001-2011. And so my suspicion is that the figure for a decade has been picked up and misinterpreted or misunderstood - and now it becomes a year-on-year prediction.

http://www.workpermit.com/news/2014...cs-underestimated-total-by-350000-in-a-decade

Thinking on the Pope's suggestion of every parish taking a family (10,000 parishes x 1 family = 50,000 a year) - if every town in UK having a population of more than 20,000 took 10 Syrian families a year - we could settle 25,000 Syrians a year (there are about 500 such towns and cities in the UK)

The total number sounds large but when you break it down in to what it might mean...

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Ian Botham supporting the 'ooters' seems to think that England is an island.
Does he vote for the Kippers, perhaps that may explain it?

 

[Old Skier]

Ian Botham supporting the 'ooters' seems to think that England is an island.
Does he vote for the Kippers, perhaps that may explain it?

Love to be there when you ask him.

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Ian Botham supporting the 'ooters' seems to think that England is an island.
Does he vote for the Kippers, perhaps that may explain it?

Maybe you should ask him ?

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Maybe you should ask him ?

Great minds think alike and.........

 

[SocketRocket]

My fear is that if things look tight Leave will play the immigration card a lot as they know this chimes with many. Only today I heard a Brexiteer talk of 350,000 immigrants a year coming to the UK.

This is remarkably similar to the figure that exactly 2yrs ago the ONS said immigration was underestimated by for the decade 2001-2011. And so my suspicion is that the figure for a decade has been picked up and misinterpreted or misunderstood - and now it becomes a year-on-year prediction.

http://www.workpermit.com/news/2014...cs-underestimated-total-by-350000-in-a-decade

Thinking on the Pope's suggestion of every parish taking a family (10,000 parishes x 1 family = 50,000 a year) - if every town in UK having a population of more than 20,000 took 10 Syrian families a year - we could settle 25,000 Syrians a year (there are about 500 such towns and cities in the UK)

The total number sounds large but when you break it down in to what it might mean...

The ONS say:

Net Migration last year was 336,000 although immigration was 636,000.

National Insurance numbers given to Adult Overseas nationals last year were 828,000

I think we are more than paying our part in taking our fair share. If we want to take in more Syrians then we should reduce the numbers from other countries.

 

[MarkE]

Thinking on the Pope's suggestion of every parish taking a family (10,000 parishes x 1 family = 50,000 a year) - if every town in UK having a population of more than 20,000 took 10 Syrian families a year - we could settle 25,000 Syrians a year (there are about 500 such towns and cities in the UK)

The total number sounds large but when you break it down in to what it might mean...

That sounds great and immigration would be far less of an issue if the burden was shared fairly. If that was the way they did things, there would'nt be a perceived problem. Certain towns though take a much larger hit than others, with all the infrastructure problems that it entails. Ipswich, for instance, has had a massive immigrant influx in the last few years while similar size towns have taken relatively few. Ipswich has compounded the problem by housing them in certain areas of town creating enclaves of immigrants with little integration into the community. It just creates problems.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

The ONS say:

Net Migration last year was 336,000 although immigration was 636,000.

National Insurance numbers given to Adult Overseas nationals last year were 828,000

I think we are more than paying our part in taking our fair share. If we want to take in more Syrians then we should reduce the numbers from other countries.

What is our 'fair share'?

My point remains though. I do fear that this referendum is going to swing on the xenophobia (verging on racism and bigotry) of a relatively small % of the UK population; a group who will use Leave statements on immigration fears, as justification for their beliefs and for voting out.

And so today the NFU jon the Scottish Farmers Union to support Remain. Another group to be ignored by Brexiteers - no doubt this time because we are not all farmers and agriculture and farming don't impact their day-to-day life (see previously the scientists). And of course many farmers will be wondering where they will get the cheap unskilled labour to work in their fields and harvesting once the points system blocks entry into the UK of such low-skilled individuals from central and eastern Europe