EU Referendum

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Just one observation on a common 'dismissal' tactic used by Leave when commenting on the risk forecasts economists, financial bodies, BoE etc are providing. It's the 'well why should we listen to them now when they failed so badly in the past - and they never forecast the 2008 collapse' Now this may be true (though they probably get a lot of stuff right that we don't hear about because they were right).

But surely a very significant difference between, say, the 2008 crash and Brexit is that expressed by Her Maj 'Why did no one see it coming?'. And that is the problem with economic forecasting. You don't know what the event will be that precipitates a crash, recession or downturn; you don't know when it'll happen; and hence you don't know what the prevailing economic and geo-political environment will be when it happens. All huge uncertainly.

However none of the above applies for Brexit - we can see it coming. The economists and bankers know exactly the nature of the event; they know exactly when it will happen; they know pretty darned well exactly the prevailing economic and geo-political environment will be in four weeks time. All of these factors remove the uncertainly that causes them problems in the past. What they then can do is learn and extrapolate from what happened 'back then' on the back of something that they didn't predict - to the specific event and point in time of Brexit.

That's why in my view it is disingenuous and misleading for Leave to dismiss economic forecasts on the basis of past performance in the way they are doing.

 

[SocketRocket]

Just one observation on a common 'dismissal' tactic used by Leave when commenting on the risk forecasts economists, financial bodies, BoE etc are providing. It's the 'well why should we listen to them now when they failed so badly in the past - and they never forecast the 2008 collapse' Now this may be true (though they probably get a lot of stuff right that we don't hear about because they were right).

But surely a very significant difference between, say, the 2008 crash and Brexit is that expressed by Her Maj 'Why did no one see it coming?'. And that is the problem with economic forecasting. You don't know what the event will be that precipitates a crash, recession or downturn; you don't know when it'll happen; and hence you don't know what the prevailing economic and geo-political environment will be when it happens. All huge uncertainly.

However none of the above applies for Brexit - we can see it coming. The economists and bankers know exactly the nature of the event; they know exactly when it will happen; they know pretty darned well exactly the prevailing economic and geo-political environment will be in four weeks time. All of these factors remove the uncertainly that causes them problems in the past. What they then can do is learn and extrapolate from what happened 'back then' on the back of something that they didn't predict - to the specific event and point in time of Brexit.

That's why in my view it is disingenuous and misleading for Leave to dismiss economic forecasts on the basis of past performance in the way they are doing.

It's not one sided though. We keep hearing from Cameron and Osbourne the absolute worst case scenarios of Brexit every time they make a statement. They never suggest the worst case of Remaining do they?

There are risks related to leaving but from what I read the mean effects are not that bad and some also suggest we could be better off. The Remain camp are using some rather exaggerated claims, don't you agree?

 

[ColchesterFC]

While I agree with some of your post SiLH, what you have conveniently ignored is that it was the same experts that predicted that leaving the Exchange Rate Mechanism was going to be disastrous for the country. They could see that coming and knew exactly the nature of the event. They knew the prevailing economic conditions and geo-political environment. All of those factors removed the uncertainty, as you put it, but they still got it hopelessly wrong.

It's a forecast or prediction and much like the weather forecast they aren't always going to be right. Just as the upbeat forecasts from Leave can't be relied on nor can those from remain. Personally I think that if Leave do win the reality will be somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. I don't think it will be smooth sailing and a bed of roses but equally I don't think it will be as bad as Remain are predicting.

Only 6 months ago David Cameron said that of course the UK could survive and flourish outside of the EU. Yet now he says a vote to leave Will lead to war in Europe, recession, job losses in the hundreds of thousands, a housing market crash and will cost each family thousands of pounds a year.

 

[Foxholer]

Good try. Trolling Oddball alert :rofl:

Ha! I knew you couldn't do it!!

Try now!

...We keep hearing from Cameron and Osbourne...

If you are going to criticise the Chancellor (or even praise him), you should show a little more knowledge and spell his name correctly!

 

[Deleted member 18121]

has there been a poll on here of how people would vote?

 

[CheltenhamHacker]

Just saying that they think houses prices will fall in the period of uncertainty following a Leave vote. Don't think they have much to gain from prices falling so I can't see any reason for them to be telling me a porky. They could just say that they don't know; or that proces prob wouldn't be affected. But they are all saying they'll fall.

Rather than questioning their honesty, i'm going to question their basis for this assumption. Not many estate agents I know are economic students, I would love to know why they are an expert now! For what it's worth I've heard grumblings about things that will happen post event, both Remain and Leave, but if you ask someone, they can't justify why.

 

[MarkE]

Rather than questioning their honesty, i'm going to question their basis for this assumption. Not many estate agents I know are economic students, I would love to know why they are an expert now! For what it's worth I've heard grumblings about things that will happen post event, both Remain and Leave, but if you ask someone, they can't justify why.

Spot on. Nobody knows for sure, it's just predictions. Just that remainers seem hell bent on ramming their dire warnings down our throats daily.

 

[SocketRocket]

Ha! I knew you couldn't do it!!

Try now!



If you are going to criticise the Chancellor (or even praise him), you should show a little more knowledge and spell his name correctly!

This has gone beyond childish behavior now. I am asking you to stop it as I don't want to be dragged into any further conversations with you. let it go please

 

[Foxholer]

This has gone beyond childish behavior now. I am asking you to stop it as I don't want to be dragged into any further conversations with you. let it go please

:rofl:

And still your 'last word' obsession continues! :rofl:

It's in your hands (well fingers) to stop it! Just don't reply to this one! No reply is needed!

 

[PhilTheFragger]

Pack it in you two please
Asking nicely
Thank you

 

[vkurup]

Spot on. Nobody knows for sure, it's just predictions. Just that remainers seem hell bent on ramming their dire warnings down our throats daily.

I agree... every report from the Remain campaign is fairly dire and i hope it does not make people go over to the other side instead. Conversely the statements (rather than any report) from Leave seems to be made on emotion rather than on an evidence. Currently there does not seem to be any evidence to say that we will be better off outside - atleast nothing that can be substantiated beyond what mop-head boris says on his soap box.

 

[Foxholer]

I agree... every report from the Remain campaign is fairly dire and i hope it does not make people go over to the other side instead. Conversely the statements (rather than any report) from Leave seems to be made on emotion rather than on an evidence. Currently there does not seem to be any evidence to say that we will be better off outside - atleast nothing that can be substantiated beyond what mop-head boris says on his soap box.

For these reasons, I'm becoming more and more impressed with Nicola Sturgeon! Or maybe simply less impressed with the other advocates (both sides) - hardly something I thought possible!

 

[ColchesterFC]

For these reasons, I'm becoming more and more impressed with Nicola Sturgeon! Or maybe simply less impressed with the other advocates (both sides) - hardly something I thought possible!

I was thinking exactly that earlier today. Never previously would have had anything positive to say about her but I think she's been pretty good so far during this campaign.

 

[vkurup]

For these reasons, I'm becoming more and more impressed with Nicola Sturgeon! Or maybe simply less impressed with the other advocates (both sides) - hardly something I thought possible!

I agree with you on that.. while i dont agree with some of her views, she is spot on with some of this. The resident cynic would say that she has the benefit of experience behind her..

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I agree with you on that.. while i dont agree with some of her views, she is spot on with some of this. The resident cynic would say that she has the benefit of experience behind her..

Though some of what she is saying is more about the language being used by Remain rather than the actual impact they are raising the risk of. So for instance you might say that house prices could fall by nearly a fifth over a period of 2yrs - or you could say there could be a major crash in house prices.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

While I agree with some of your post SiLH, what you have conveniently ignored is that it was the same experts that predicted that leaving the Exchange Rate Mechanism was going to be disastrous for the country. They could see that coming and knew exactly the nature of the event. They knew the prevailing economic conditions and geo-political environment. All of those factors removed the uncertainty, as you put it, but they still got it hopelessly wrong.

It's a forecast or prediction and much like the weather forecast they aren't always going to be right. Just as the upbeat forecasts from Leave can't be relied on nor can those from remain. Personally I think that if Leave do win the reality will be somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. I don't think it will be smooth sailing and a bed of roses but equally I don't think it will be as bad as Remain are predicting.

Only 6 months ago David Cameron said that of course the UK could survive and flourish outside of the EU. Yet now he says a vote to leave Will lead to war in Europe, recession, job losses in the hundreds of thousands, a housing market crash and will cost each family thousands of pounds a year.

This being true - but surely then the economists are now well placed to assess the outcome of known events such as leaving the Exchange Rate Mechanism and unknown events like the 2008 crash. They will have examined what happened and what didn't happen when we left the ERM - and assessed why forecasts of gloom and doom never came to pass. I would absolutely expect very good lessons to have been learnt from that known event, and used to inform their forecasts around this event.

In any case - I find dismissing economists forecast on the grounds that they have got it wrong in the past - whilst ignoring when they got it right - just simple anti-intellectual. As if to say that you might as well make decisions in complete ignorance of any facts, expertise and what has happened in the past.

 

[Hobbit]

This being true - but surely then the economists are now well placed to assess the outcome of known events such as leaving the Exchange Rate Mechanism and unknown events like the 2008 crash. They will have examined what happened and what didn't happen when we left the ERM - and assessed why forecasts of gloom and doom never came to pass. I would absolutely expect very good lessons to have been learnt from that known event, and used to inform their forecasts around this event.

In any case - I find dismissing economists forecast on the grounds that they have got it wrong in the past - whilst ignoring when they got it right - just simple anti-intellectual. As if to say that you might as well make decisions in complete ignorance of any facts, expertise and what has happened in the past.

i agree in principle but would ask the question why the economists originally said families would be £3,600 and then said £4,300 worse off. The Treasury can't even get annual growth forecasts right whilst in this wonderful stable EU. How on earth can they predict Leave when the exit negotiations haven't taken place? No one knows what the EU will charge for access to their markets, as they do with Norway and Switzerland.

None of the above takes into account the ability to target specific areas of the economy that EU rules currently forbid.

I still feel that neither side has put forward a decent economic prediction.

 

[Foxholer]

Economists are in the fortunate position of being able to predict events without suffering any consequences if many (or even all!) of their prediction are wrong! I know of no other 'scientific' discipline where that can happen! And the reasons they get things wrong are that there are so many variables/possible scenarios involved with an economy that they can really only guess what the effects will be! Trying to put a figure on the cost of a Brexit to housing and personal wealth is pretty daft imo, but I guess that's seen as a way for the Remain-ers to be 'more specific'!

I believe there would certainly be some sort of 'shock' immediate negative effect ('catastrophic' events generally have a negative impact on an overall economy, even if some areas benefit!) followed by a mild recovery, but that the true cost would not be felt (for example by farmers and employment) for some time - even perhaps longer than the 2 years transition/negotiation period of Clause 50!

I don't believe the statements about likely significant drop in house prices. That seems like scare-mongering to me!

Sytill, it was interesting to watch Jacob Rees-Mogg attempt (and fail quite badly) to make (political) capital out of the BofE's (independent) negative view of the effect of a Brexit! He made himself look quite pompous and silly, though anyone who names his children as inanely as he does has to be a candidate for that description anyway!!

 

[ColchesterFC]

Sky News reporting on the referendum have just said that every 4 weeks the EU move from Brussels to Strasbourg for 4 days and then go back to Brussels. This costs £150 million pounds per year. Does anyone know why they do this? Seems like an awful waste of money.

 

[vkurup]

Sky News reporting on the referendum have just said that every 4 weeks the EU move from Brussels to Strasbourg for 4 days and then go back to Brussels. This costs £150 million pounds per year. Does anyone know why they do this? Seems like an awful waste of money.

Acc to their website..

17. Why does Parliament move between Brussels and Strasbourg?

The EU's national governments unanimously decided in 1992 to fix permanently the seat of the EU institutions. The official seat and venue for most of the plenary sessions is Strasbourg, Parliamentary Committees and Political Group meetings are held in Brussels and administrative staff are based in Luxembourg. Any change to this current system would need to be part of a new treaty and unanimously agreed by all Member States.


<edit> Plus things can be a bit bonkers. I think this is a valid reason to leave the EU..