HarrogateHacker
Active member
I’ve had a hole in one and holed out from 140 ish for an eagle 2 earlier this year. I’d fancy it but doubt I’d sign up. If I didn’t have any dependents think I’d go for it.
£2,000,000 or prison
- Thread starter Fabia999
- Start date
Newton
New member
Golf ball diameter 4.268cm
Number of golf balls to fit in a square metre is circa 540 (100/4.268 =23. 23x23 = c540)
Average green size = 300sq metres. (say 20mx15m)
Number of golf balls to fully cover the green = 540 x 300 = 162000.
Decent golfer playing repetitive shots may be more dialled in on the flag but also there may be some shots that that miss the green entirely. It depends on distance, so unknown variable. For the sake of argument, let’s say those factors cancel each other out.
Cup is bigger than the ball. In a blanket covering of golf balls, fair to assume that maybe 5 would drop in the hole.
162000/5 = 32400
Equates to c1000 golf balls per day for 1 month.
120 balls per hour at the range should be bare minimum of what’s achievable.
Say, roughly 1440 balls at least in a 12 hour day.
It’s a close call, given what’s at stake, but I’d say the odds are in favour of taking the bet.
Number of golf balls to fit in a square metre is circa 540 (100/4.268 =23. 23x23 = c540)
Average green size = 300sq metres. (say 20mx15m)
Number of golf balls to fully cover the green = 540 x 300 = 162000.
Decent golfer playing repetitive shots may be more dialled in on the flag but also there may be some shots that that miss the green entirely. It depends on distance, so unknown variable. For the sake of argument, let’s say those factors cancel each other out.
Cup is bigger than the ball. In a blanket covering of golf balls, fair to assume that maybe 5 would drop in the hole.
162000/5 = 32400
Equates to c1000 golf balls per day for 1 month.
120 balls per hour at the range should be bare minimum of what’s achievable.
Say, roughly 1440 balls at least in a 12 hour day.
It’s a close call, given what’s at stake, but I’d say the odds are in favour of taking the bet.
CountLippe
Active member
16th Augusta. Funnel pin position. 120yards. Doubt it would take anyone a month.
tigerwes
Hacker
Is it 5 years, or are you only serving half 
.
It's not particularly hard in prison so why not.
.It's not particularly hard in prison so why not.
Swango1980
Well-known member
I guess it depends on your age and fitness as to what your body can cope with. Also, if it were a relatively short par 3, a fairly relaxed swing should be possible. Not busting blood vessels trying to smack a driver.
I doubt many would have actually hit more than 500 a day to answer the question. Maybe a professional would, given they want to ingrain consistency in their striking. To avoid prison and for 2 million, I'm sure most would be able to give it a good go.
If the food is decent in prison, and I get a TV and playstation, then it is definitely worth a go. If I end up going to prison, it'll just be like living in lockdown for the last year anyway.
I guess it depends whether the balls are allowed to stay on the green for the remaining shots - if they are then the odds get better, you can use balls for a backstop, rebounds, etc.
If the ball was taken away each time then every shot would have the same odds. Imagine being in your last minute of the 4 weeks and you've still got a 1/32400 chance of making it - sure the odds get better as you zone in, but with my skill, or lack of, I'm still not convinced.
Swinglowandslow
Well-known member
There must be a point when the number of balls left on the green lessens your chances. Any ball landing on the green and running to the hole would likely get blocked?
Where are the statat.... stat tat... blokes who work these things out?
SwingsitlikeHogan
Major Champion
Not on your Nellie. Having not had one in 50yrs I wouldn’t fancy my chances. Would sell my house and live in a tent if I had an urgent need for a load of dosh...
In your favour ? Does that mean its a 1 in 3 chance that you will go to prison for 5 years ? Dont think many would roll a dice on those odds so surprised at those thinking 'in your favour' means is worth the gamble.
Dibby
Assistant Pro
How do you calculate it as 1 in 3?
Having 25,000 attempts at a 12,500/1 shot is not the same as 1/3.
Add to the fact that the odds of 12,500/1 are calculated for all amateurs on any given hole. If you're on a shorter hole the odds will actually be less. Also playing the same hole over and over for 25,000 shots will also reduce the odds, unless your golf shots are truly independent random events.
For a pro the odds of a hole in one are closer to 2,500/1, and a low handicapper it's closer to 5,000/1 so it's not unreasonable to assume given all the above it's actually closer to something like 3,000/1 to 8,000/1 for most people on this forum as I don't think we have a lot of 54 handicappers.
25,000 attempts at an 8,000/1 shot. If I said you can choose heads or tails and then I will flip a coin 6 times and if your choice comes up once you get £2 million, but if you lose you go to jail, would you take it?
The odds of getting 6 coins tosses the same in a row is just over 1%. I‘d certainly be more inclined to take those odds over a hole in one.
woofers
Medal Winner
Err...we’re not talking about going home...
HomerJSimpson
Hall of Famer
For a long time
Im not really sure to be honest ! But going with the idea that if you hit 25k balls you have two 50/50 shots of getting a hole in one. But not sure thats correct. Not sure either, but the chances one of your two batchs of 12.5k balls producing that hole in one is 0.75. So probably should have said 3 to 1. So 25% chance you would lose. Going with your number of 12500 which seems in the ballpark, people seem to be assuming that is you hit 12.5k you should indeed get a hole in 1, or that if you have the stamina and time to hit twice that, you are vitually guaranteed one. But thats not the case.
Tiger man
Challenge Tour Pro
Half swing driver it is!
Sports_Fanatic
Assistant Pro
I reckon you'd definitely lower the amount of people taking the challenge on if you changed it to £2m or you have to repair all the pitch marks made during your attempt. Saying that most members feel exempt from that anyway
HomerJSimpson
Hall of Famer
Good point. Hopefully the greens will look great on Wednesday with no pitch marks on there but guarantee by the time I get a game at the weekend I'll be repairing 2-3 per green other than my own
MrGrumtastic
Member
If you want to calculate the probability of getting at least one hole in one from 25000 shots at odds of 1/8000, then the equation is as follows:
1 - ((8000 - 1)/8000)^25000
This equates to around 95%, so pretty good odds in my opinion. You can adjust the odds or the number of shots to see what effect that has on the outcome.
Yeah that works using the variables that people seem to have agreed upon, the shots taken etc. But the coin odds is simple mathematics. No skill, weather conditions, pressure, or luck which can’t be accounted for.
plus it’d be over in 60 seconds.
So I’d still take the coin toss.
Slab
Occasional Tour Caddy
Was at the practice ground this morning and one of the flags was about the 130yrd mark but I didn't have the right club so I start hitting anyway but with 2 clubs extra, within 10 mins and 25 balls I've smacked the pin on the half volley
Now I'm no mathematician but that could just as easily dropped into the hole rather than sit next to it... and so with the right club for that distance I'd be disappointed if a don't hole out on day 1 (before lunch)
Now I'm no mathematician but that could just as easily dropped into the hole rather than sit next to it... and so with the right club for that distance I'd be disappointed if a don't hole out on day 1 (before lunch)
