£2,000,000 or prison

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Sep 7, 2019
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Harrogate
I’ve had a hole in one and holed out from 140 ish for an eagle 2 earlier this year. I’d fancy it but doubt I’d sign up. If I didn’t have any dependents think I’d go for it.
 

Newton

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Nov 25, 2020
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Golf ball diameter 4.268cm

Number of golf balls to fit in a square metre is circa 540 (100/4.268 =23. 23x23 = c540)

Average green size = 300sq metres. (say 20mx15m)

Number of golf balls to fully cover the green = 540 x 300 = 162000.

Decent golfer playing repetitive shots may be more dialled in on the flag but also there may be some shots that that miss the green entirely. It depends on distance, so unknown variable. For the sake of argument, let’s say those factors cancel each other out.

Cup is bigger than the ball. In a blanket covering of golf balls, fair to assume that maybe 5 would drop in the hole.

162000/5 = 32400

Equates to c1000 golf balls per day for 1 month.

120 balls per hour at the range should be bare minimum of what’s achievable.

Say, roughly 1440 balls at least in a 12 hour day.

It’s a close call, given what’s at stake, but I’d say the odds are in favour of taking the bet.
 

Traminator

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Has anyone actually ever tried hitting a thousand balls in a day?
And then done it again the next day, then the next etc etc?
 

Swango1980

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Has anyone actually ever tried hitting a thousand balls in a day?
And then done it again the next day, then the next etc etc?
I guess it depends on your age and fitness as to what your body can cope with. Also, if it were a relatively short par 3, a fairly relaxed swing should be possible. Not busting blood vessels trying to smack a driver.

I doubt many would have actually hit more than 500 a day to answer the question. Maybe a professional would, given they want to ingrain consistency in their striking. To avoid prison and for 2 million, I'm sure most would be able to give it a good go.

If the food is decent in prison, and I get a TV and playstation, then it is definitely worth a go. If I end up going to prison, it'll just be like living in lockdown for the last year anyway.
 
Joined
Jun 11, 2020
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Number of golf balls to fully cover the green = 540 x 300 = 162000.

Decent golfer playing repetitive shots may be more dialled in on the flag but also there may be some shots that that miss the green entirely. It depends on distance, so unknown variable. For the sake of argument, let’s say those factors cancel each other out.

Cup is bigger than the ball. In a blanket covering of golf balls, fair to assume that maybe 5 would drop in the hole.

162000/5 = 32400

Equates to c1000 golf balls per day for 1 month.
I guess it depends whether the balls are allowed to stay on the green for the remaining shots - if they are then the odds get better, you can use balls for a backstop, rebounds, etc.

If the ball was taken away each time then every shot would have the same odds. Imagine being in your last minute of the 4 weeks and you've still got a 1/32400 chance of making it - sure the odds get better as you zone in, but with my skill, or lack of, I'm still not convinced.
 

Swinglowandslow

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I guess it depends whether the balls are allowed to stay on the green for the remaining shots - if they are then the odds get better, you can use balls for a backstop, rebounds, etc.

If the ball was taken away each time then every shot would have the same odds. Imagine being in your last minute of the 4 weeks and you've still got a 1/32400 chance of making it - sure the odds get better as you zone in, but with my skill, or lack of, I'm still not convinced.
There must be a point when the number of balls left on the green lessens your chances. Any ball landing on the green and running to the hole would likely get blocked?
Where are the statat.... stat tat... blokes who work these things out?
 
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Not on your Nellie. Having not had one in 50yrs I wouldn’t fancy my chances. Would sell my house and live in a tent if I had an urgent need for a load of dosh...
 

Backsticks

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So odds of an amateur making a hole in one are approximately 12,500 to 1. That assumes normal play, but if you keep playing the exact same hole, it's probably a little less, buit less stick with that number. Also assuming you are not a complete hacker who can't reach the green for example.

Lets attempt this in July and August, better weather, longer days and 62 days in total. At a minimum we need to hit 202 shots a day. Lets say excluding breaks for food, rest etc.. we have 8 hours to do it, we have to hit roughly 25 shots an hour, or close to 1 every 2 minutes. This should be doable. Probably even possible to do double this rate, suggesting the odds are in your favour having 25,000 attempts and a 12,500/1 shot. Theoretically you shoudl take the bet.

In reality it doesn't mean that you'll make it, so you may choose not too, but conditions are in your favour.
In your favour ? Does that mean its a 1 in 3 chance that you will go to prison for 5 years ? Dont think many would roll a dice on those odds so surprised at those thinking 'in your favour' means is worth the gamble.
 

Traminator

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I'd get a shag bag of 50 balls, hit them, walk and collect, walk back, hit again and keep repeating.
You'd have to pace yourself to keep going for a month.
500 a day for 30 days is 15000, one would go in at some stage.
 

Dibby

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In your favour ? Does that mean its a 1 in 3 chance that you will go to prison for 5 years ? Dont think many would roll a dice on those odds so surprised at those thinking 'in your favour' means is worth the gamble.
How do you calculate it as 1 in 3?

Having 25,000 attempts at a 12,500/1 shot is not the same as 1/3.

Add to the fact that the odds of 12,500/1 are calculated for all amateurs on any given hole. If you're on a shorter hole the odds will actually be less. Also playing the same hole over and over for 25,000 shots will also reduce the odds, unless your golf shots are truly independent random events.

For a pro the odds of a hole in one are closer to 2,500/1, and a low handicapper it's closer to 5,000/1 so it's not unreasonable to assume given all the above it's actually closer to something like 3,000/1 to 8,000/1 for most people on this forum as I don't think we have a lot of 54 handicappers.

25,000 attempts at an 8,000/1 shot. If I said you can choose heads or tails and then I will flip a coin 6 times and if your choice comes up once you get £2 million, but if you lose you go to jail, would you take it?
 

Papas1982

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How do you calculate it as 1 in 3?

Having 25,000 attempts at a 12,500/1 shot is not the same as 1/3.

Add to the fact that the odds of 12,500/1 are calculated for all amateurs on any given hole. If you're on a shorter hole the odds will actually be less. Also playing the same hole over and over for 25,000 shots will also reduce the odds, unless your golf shots are truly independent random events.

For a pro the odds of a hole in one are closer to 2,500/1, and a low handicapper it's closer to 5,000/1 so it's not unreasonable to assume given all the above it's actually closer to something like 3,000/1 to 8,000/1 for most people on this forum as I don't think we have a lot of 54 handicappers.

25,000 attempts at an 8,000/1 shot. If I said you can choose heads or tails and then I will flip a coin 6 times and if your choice comes up once you get £2 million, but if you lose you go to jail, would you take it?
The odds of getting 6 coins tosses the same in a row is just over 1%. I‘d certainly be more inclined to take those odds over a hole in one.
 

Backsticks

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Aug 7, 2012
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240
How do you calculate it as 1 in 3?

Having 25,000 attempts at a 12,500/1 shot is not the same as 1/3.

Add to the fact that the odds of 12,500/1 are calculated for all amateurs on any given hole. If you're on a shorter hole the odds will actually be less. Also playing the same hole over and over for 25,000 shots will also reduce the odds, unless your golf shots are truly independent random events.

For a pro the odds of a hole in one are closer to 2,500/1, and a low handicapper it's closer to 5,000/1 so it's not unreasonable to assume given all the above it's actually closer to something like 3,000/1 to 8,000/1 for most people on this forum as I don't think we have a lot of 54 handicappers.

25,000 attempts at an 8,000/1 shot. If I said you can choose heads or tails and then I will flip a coin 6 times and if your choice comes up once you get £2 million, but if you lose you go to jail, would you take it?
Im not really sure to be honest ! But going with the idea that if you hit 25k balls you have two 50/50 shots of getting a hole in one. But not sure thats correct. Not sure either, but the chances one of your two batchs of 12.5k balls producing that hole in one is 0.75. So probably should have said 3 to 1. So 25% chance you would lose. Going with your number of 12500 which seems in the ballpark, people seem to be assuming that is you hit 12.5k you should indeed get a hole in 1, or that if you have the stamina and time to hit twice that, you are vitually guaranteed one. But thats not the case.
 
Joined
Apr 18, 2012
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I reckon you'd definitely lower the amount of people taking the challenge on if you changed it to £2m or you have to repair all the pitch marks made during your attempt. Saying that most members feel exempt from that anyway :LOL:
 
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