- Thread starter Fabia999
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Number of golf balls to fit in a square metre is circa 540 (100/4.268 =23. 23x23 = c540)

Average green size = 300sq metres. (say 20mx15m)

Number of golf balls to fully cover the green = 540 x 300 = 162000.

Decent golfer playing repetitive shots may be more dialled in on the flag but also there may be some shots that that miss the green entirely. It depends on distance, so unknown variable. For the sake of argument, let’s say those factors cancel each other out.

Cup is bigger than the ball. In a blanket covering of golf balls, fair to assume that maybe 5 would drop in the hole.

162000/5 = 32400

Equates to c1000 golf balls per day for 1 month.

120 balls per hour at the range should be bare minimum of what’s achievable.

Say, roughly 1440 balls at least in a 12 hour day.

It’s a close call, given what’s at stake, but I’d say the odds are in favour of taking the bet.

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16th Augusta. Funnel pin position. 120yards. Doubt it would take anyone a month.

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And then done it again the next day, then the next etc etc?

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And then done it again the next day, then the next etc etc?

I doubt many would have actually hit more than 500 a day to answer the question. Maybe a professional would, given they want to ingrain consistency in their striking. To avoid prison and for 2 million, I'm sure most would be able to give it a good go.

If the food is decent in prison, and I get a TV and playstation, then it is definitely worth a go. If I end up going to prison, it'll just be like living in lockdown for the last year anyway.

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Number of golf balls to fully cover the green = 540 x 300 = 162000.

Decent golfer playing repetitive shots may be more dialled in on the flag but also there may be some shots that that miss the green entirely. It depends on distance, so unknown variable. For the sake of argument, let’s say those factors cancel each other out.

Cup is bigger than the ball. In a blanket covering of golf balls, fair to assume that maybe 5 would drop in the hole.

162000/5 = 32400

Equates to c1000 golf balls per day for 1 month.

Decent golfer playing repetitive shots may be more dialled in on the flag but also there may be some shots that that miss the green entirely. It depends on distance, so unknown variable. For the sake of argument, let’s say those factors cancel each other out.

Cup is bigger than the ball. In a blanket covering of golf balls, fair to assume that maybe 5 would drop in the hole.

162000/5 = 32400

Equates to c1000 golf balls per day for 1 month.

If the ball was taken away each time then every shot would have the same odds. Imagine being in your last minute of the 4 weeks and you've still got a 1/32400 chance of making it - sure the odds get better as you zone in, but with my skill, or lack of, I'm still not convinced.

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I guess it depends whether the balls are allowed to stay on the green for the remaining shots - if they are then the odds get better, you can use balls for a backstop, rebounds, etc.

If the ball was taken away each time then every shot would have the same odds. Imagine being in your last minute of the 4 weeks and you've still got a 1/32400 chance of making it - sure the odds get better as you zone in, but with my skill, or lack of, I'm still not convinced.

If the ball was taken away each time then every shot would have the same odds. Imagine being in your last minute of the 4 weeks and you've still got a 1/32400 chance of making it - sure the odds get better as you zone in, but with my skill, or lack of, I'm still not convinced.

Where are the statat.... stat tat... blokes who work these things out?

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So odds of an amateur making a hole in one are approximately 12,500 to 1. That assumes normal play, but if you keep playing the exact same hole, it's probably a little less, buit less stick with that number. Also assuming you are not a complete hacker who can't reach the green for example.

Lets attempt this in July and August, better weather, longer days and 62 days in total. At a minimum we need to hit 202 shots a day. Lets say excluding breaks for food, rest etc.. we have 8 hours to do it, we have to hit roughly 25 shots an hour, or close to 1 every 2 minutes. This should be doable. Probably even possible to do double this rate, suggesting the odds are in your favour having 25,000 attempts and a 12,500/1 shot. Theoretically you shoudl take the bet.

In reality it doesn't mean that you'll make it, so you may choose not too, but conditions are in your favour.

Lets attempt this in July and August, better weather, longer days and 62 days in total. At a minimum we need to hit 202 shots a day. Lets say excluding breaks for food, rest etc.. we have 8 hours to do it, we have to hit roughly 25 shots an hour, or close to 1 every 2 minutes. This should be doable. Probably even possible to do double this rate, suggesting the odds are in your favour having 25,000 attempts and a 12,500/1 shot. Theoretically you shoudl take the bet.

In reality it doesn't mean that you'll make it, so you may choose not too, but conditions are in your favour.

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You'd have to pace yourself to keep going for a month.

500 a day for 30 days is 15000, one would go in at some stage.

In your favour ? Does that mean its a 1 in 3 chance that you will go to prison for 5 years ? Dont think many would roll a dice on those odds so surprised at those thinking 'in your favour' means is worth the gamble.

Having 25,000 attempts at a 12,500/1 shot is not the same as 1/3.

Add to the fact that the odds of 12,500/1 are calculated for all amateurs on any given hole. If you're on a shorter hole the odds will actually be less. Also playing the same hole over and over for 25,000 shots will also reduce the odds, unless your golf shots are truly independent random events.

For a pro the odds of a hole in one are closer to 2,500/1, and a low handicapper it's closer to 5,000/1 so it's not unreasonable to assume given all the above it's actually closer to something like 3,000/1 to 8,000/1 for most people on this forum as I don't think we have a lot of 54 handicappers.

25,000 attempts at an 8,000/1 shot. If I said you can choose heads or tails and then I will flip a coin 6 times and if your choice comes up once you get £2 million, but if you lose you go to jail, would you take it?

How do you calculate it as 1 in 3?

Having 25,000 attempts at a 12,500/1 shot is not the same as 1/3.

Add to the fact that the odds of 12,500/1 are calculated for all amateurs on any given hole. If you're on a shorter hole the odds will actually be less. Also playing the same hole over and over for 25,000 shots will also reduce the odds, unless your golf shots are truly independent random events.

For a pro the odds of a hole in one are closer to 2,500/1, and a low handicapper it's closer to 5,000/1 so it's not unreasonable to assume given all the above it's actually closer to something like 3,000/1 to 8,000/1 for most people on this forum as I don't think we have a lot of 54 handicappers.

25,000 attempts at an 8,000/1 shot. If I said you can choose heads or tails and then**I will flip a coin 6 times and if your choice comes up once you get £2 million, but if you lose you go to jail, would you take it**?

Having 25,000 attempts at a 12,500/1 shot is not the same as 1/3.

Add to the fact that the odds of 12,500/1 are calculated for all amateurs on any given hole. If you're on a shorter hole the odds will actually be less. Also playing the same hole over and over for 25,000 shots will also reduce the odds, unless your golf shots are truly independent random events.

For a pro the odds of a hole in one are closer to 2,500/1, and a low handicapper it's closer to 5,000/1 so it's not unreasonable to assume given all the above it's actually closer to something like 3,000/1 to 8,000/1 for most people on this forum as I don't think we have a lot of 54 handicappers.

25,000 attempts at an 8,000/1 shot. If I said you can choose heads or tails and then

Yeah why not. Go big or go home.

Err...we’re not talking about going home...

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How do you calculate it as 1 in 3?

Having 25,000 attempts at a 12,500/1 shot is not the same as 1/3.

Add to the fact that the odds of 12,500/1 are calculated for all amateurs on any given hole. If you're on a shorter hole the odds will actually be less. Also playing the same hole over and over for 25,000 shots will also reduce the odds, unless your golf shots are truly independent random events.

For a pro the odds of a hole in one are closer to 2,500/1, and a low handicapper it's closer to 5,000/1 so it's not unreasonable to assume given all the above it's actually closer to something like 3,000/1 to 8,000/1 for most people on this forum as I don't think we have a lot of 54 handicappers.

25,000 attempts at an 8,000/1 shot. If I said you can choose heads or tails and then I will flip a coin 6 times and if your choice comes up once you get £2 million, but if you lose you go to jail, would you take it?

Having 25,000 attempts at a 12,500/1 shot is not the same as 1/3.

Add to the fact that the odds of 12,500/1 are calculated for all amateurs on any given hole. If you're on a shorter hole the odds will actually be less. Also playing the same hole over and over for 25,000 shots will also reduce the odds, unless your golf shots are truly independent random events.

For a pro the odds of a hole in one are closer to 2,500/1, and a low handicapper it's closer to 5,000/1 so it's not unreasonable to assume given all the above it's actually closer to something like 3,000/1 to 8,000/1 for most people on this forum as I don't think we have a lot of 54 handicappers.

25,000 attempts at an 8,000/1 shot. If I said you can choose heads or tails and then I will flip a coin 6 times and if your choice comes up once you get £2 million, but if you lose you go to jail, would you take it?

What if I got the shanks.

Again.

Again.

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