Jaymosafehands
Challenge Tour Pro
1st
in my world I'm always first...............so my wife says
like!
What's your world ranking?
- Thread starter NeilTappin
- Start date
like!
Evesdad
Tour Winner
I'm not sad at all
1st
in my world I'm always first...............so my wife says
Funny,she said the same to me the other night....
SyR
Challenge Tour Pro
I'm guessing I'm about 25 millionth.
RGDave
Money List Winner
I'm officially 10,267,407.
I worked it out. Easy.
If I get lucky in my next comp, I might break into single million figures.
Next time someone asks "are you any good?" I might be able to reply, "I'm in the top 10 million".
That'll sound impressive.
NOT.
I worked it out. Easy.
If I get lucky in my next comp, I might break into single million figures.
Next time someone asks "are you any good?" I might be able to reply, "I'm in the top 10 million".
That'll sound impressive.
NOT.
sev112
Tour Winner
Perhaps cos the distribution won't be completely random, which a Normal distribution requires. I'm guessing it is skewed, because at the "Pro" end the amount of practice is enhanced, better equipment/courses etc.
But you are generally right, it is an easy calculation if you have teh range and mr Tapping gives you clues like 10% are singel figures.
Would have been fun had that bit of info been kept secret and then see what we all came up with !
swanny32
Journeyman Pro
I heard a stat the other day that only 18% of the worlds golfers ever break 100.
HawkeyeMS
Ryder Cup Winner
18% of people who have ever played golf or 18% of people who play golf regularly. I know a lot of people who have played golf before and stand no chance of ever breaking 100. I wouldn't, however, call them golfers.
Scouser
Tour Winner
Im in the 82%
As for position last 999999 cant be the last someone has to be worse.... and if they are on here fancy a game ....I need to beat someone
I'd say I'm definitely in the bottom 10%
swanny32
Journeyman Pro
I'll have to ask my pro when I see he again.
One Planer
Global Moderator
I think I'd be in the Vauxhall coferance or the Ryman league
Neil20
Club Champion
I took the figure in the opening post here and took it as fact that there are 6,000,000 golfers at 9.4 or lower.
Then I went through HowdidIdo and took it as fact that everyone's score is posted there. Obviously that's a huge leap of faith as better players are more likely to have a handicap. I can sleep at night with that assumption though. I'm just going to say that to be ranked, you need a handicap.
Then I looked through the rounds registered on howdidido
Cat 1 1657439 6.54%
Cat 2 7069810 27.89%
Cat 3 10368028 40.90%
Cat 4 4977036 19.64%
Cat 5 1274508 5.03%
25346821
I messed around with some Standard Deviations and Means until there was a half decent fit. I ended with a Mean of 15 and a STDEV of 6.5
I also assumed that nobody had a handicap of better than +2 to make sure the curve wasn't messed up by pros.
That feels about right for club golfers. Feel free to discuss that. It would put 2/3rds of club golfers at 8.5 to 21.5, can't be horribly wrong you'd think.
Here's the match with those numbers vs Howdidido.
Cat ---- Neil ---- Howdidido
1 --- 06.54% --- 06.54%
2 --- 27.26% --- 27.89%
3 --- 44.67% --- 40.90%
4 --- 17.60% --- 19.64%
5 --- 02.13% --- 05.03%
Those numbers seem reasonably close. There's a problem with the fact that men can't go above 28 and ladies can, so I'm not too concerned with the cat 5 issue on a maths level. The model certainly overestimates the strength of the average golfer because of it though.
Using those figures it turns out that 19.44% of people on Howdidido are 9.4 or lower. We're looking for our world ranking, so we make 9.4 equal 6 millionth.
I ended up with
0.0 324,207
0.1 337,653
0.2 351,582
0.3 366,008
0.4 380,944
0.5 396,405
0.6 412,407
0.7 428,963
0.8 446,089
0.9 463,800
1.0 482,112
1.1 501,041
1.2 520,604
1.3 540,816
1.4 561,694
1.5 583,255
1.6 605,516
1.7 628,494
1.8 652,207
1.9 676,673
2.0 701,909
2.1 727,934
2.2 754,765
2.3 782,422
2.4 810,923
2.5 840,287
2.6 870,532
2.7 901,678
2.8 933,744
2.9 966,750
3.0 1,000,714
3.1 1,035,657
3.2 1,071,598
3.3 1,108,557
3.4 1,146,554
3.5 1,185,608
3.6 1,225,740
3.7 1,266,970
3.8 1,309,317
3.9 1,352,801
4.0 1,397,444
4.1 1,443,264
4.2 1,490,281
4.3 1,538,515
4.4 1,587,987
4.5 1,638,716
4.6 1,690,721
4.7 1,744,022
4.8 1,798,638
4.9 1,854,589
5.0 1,911,894
5.1 1,970,571
5.2 2,030,639
5.3 2,092,116
5.4 2,155,022
5.5 2,219,373
5.6 2,285,187
5.7 2,352,483
5.8 2,421,275
5.9 2,491,582
6.0 2,563,420
6.1 2,636,805
6.2 2,711,751
6.3 2,788,275
6.4 2,866,392
6.5 2,946,114
6.6 3,027,457
6.7 3,110,433
6.8 3,195,055
6.9 3,281,335
7.0 3,369,286
7.1 3,458,917
7.2 3,550,241
7.3 3,643,265
7.4 3,738,001
7.5 3,834,457
7.6 3,932,639
7.7 4,032,557
7.8 4,134,216
7.9 4,237,622
8.0 4,342,781
8.1 4,449,696
8.2 4,558,371
8.3 4,668,810
8.4 4,781,014
8.5 4,894,985
8.6 5,010,723
8.7 5,128,227
8.8 5,247,496
8.9 5,368,528
9.0 5,491,321
9.1 5,615,869
9.2 5,742,169
9.3 5,870,215
9.4 6,000,000
9.5 6,131,517
9.6 6,264,756
9.7 6,399,710
9.8 6,536,367
9.9 6,674,717
10.0 6,814,746
10.1 6,956,443
10.2 7,099,792
10.3 7,244,780
10.4 7,391,389
10.5 7,539,603
10.6 7,689,404
10.7 7,840,773
10.8 7,993,691
10.9 8,148,136
11.0 8,304,087
11.1 8,461,522
11.2 8,620,417
11.3 8,780,747
11.4 8,942,487
11.5 9,105,612
11.6 9,270,093
11.7 9,435,903
11.8 9,603,014
11.9 9,771,395
12.0 9,941,016
12.1 10,111,845
12.2 10,283,851
12.3 10,457,001
12.4 10,631,261
12.5 10,806,596
12.6 10,982,973
12.7 11,160,353
12.8 11,338,702
12.9 11,517,982
13.0 11,698,156
13.1 11,879,184
13.2 12,061,028
13.3 12,243,649
13.4 12,427,006
13.5 12,611,058
13.6 12,795,765
13.7 12,981,086
13.8 13,166,977
13.9 13,353,397
14.0 13,540,303
14.1 13,727,651
14.2 13,915,400
14.3 14,103,504
14.4 14,291,920
14.5 14,480,604
14.6 14,669,511
14.7 14,858,597
14.8 15,047,818
14.9 15,237,128
15.0 15,426,483
15.1 15,615,837
15.2 15,805,147
15.3 15,994,368
15.4 16,183,454
15.5 16,372,361
15.6 16,561,045
15.7 16,749,461
15.8 16,937,565
15.9 17,125,314
16.0 17,312,663
16.1 17,499,568
16.2 17,685,988
16.3 17,871,880
16.4 18,057,200
16.5 18,241,907
16.6 18,425,959
16.7 18,609,316
16.8 18,791,937
16.9 18,973,781
17.0 19,154,809
17.1 19,334,983
17.2 19,514,263
17.3 19,692,612
17.4 19,869,993
17.5 20,046,369
17.6 20,221,704
17.7 20,395,964
17.8 20,569,114
17.9 20,741,120
18.0 20,911,949
18.1 21,081,570
18.2 21,249,951
18.3 21,417,062
18.4 21,582,872
18.5 21,747,353
18.6 21,910,478
18.7 22,072,218
18.8 22,232,549
18.9 22,391,443
19.0 22,548,878
19.1 22,704,829
19.2 22,859,275
19.3 23,012,192
19.4 23,163,561
19.5 23,313,362
19.6 23,461,576
19.7 23,608,186
19.8 23,753,173
19.9 23,896,522
20.0 24,038,219
20.1 24,178,248
20.2 24,316,598
20.3 24,453,255
20.4 24,588,209
20.5 24,721,449
20.6 24,852,965
20.7 24,982,750
20.8 25,110,796
20.9 25,237,096
21.0 25,361,645
21.1 25,484,437
21.2 25,605,469
21.3 25,724,739
21.4 25,842,243
21.5 25,957,980
21.6 26,071,951
21.7 26,184,155
21.8 26,294,594
21.9 26,403,269
22.0 26,510,185
22.1 26,615,343
22.2 26,718,749
22.3 26,820,408
22.4 26,920,326
22.5 27,018,509
22.6 27,114,964
22.7 27,209,700
22.8 27,302,725
22.9 27,394,048
23.0 27,483,680
23.1 27,571,630
23.2 27,657,911
23.3 27,742,533
23.4 27,825,509
23.5 27,906,851
23.6 27,986,574
23.7 28,064,690
23.8 28,141,214
23.9 28,216,160
24.0 28,289,545
24.1 28,361,383
24.2 28,431,690
24.3 28,500,483
24.4 28,567,778
24.5 28,633,592
24.6 28,697,943
24.7 28,760,849
24.8 28,822,326
24.9 28,882,395
25.0 28,941,072
25.1 28,998,376
25.2 29,054,327
25.3 29,108,943
25.4 29,162,244
25.5 29,214,250
25.6 29,264,978
25.7 29,314,450
25.8 29,362,684
25.9 29,409,702
26.0 29,455,521
26.1 29,500,164
26.2 29,543,648
26.3 29,585,995
26.4 29,627,225
26.5 29,667,357
26.6 29,706,411
26.7 29,744,408
26.8 29,781,367
26.9 29,817,308
27.0 29,852,251
27.1 29,886,216
27.2 29,919,221
27.3 29,951,287
27.4 29,982,433
27.5 30,012,679
27.6 30,042,042
27.7 30,070,543
27.8 30,098,200
27.9 30,125,031
28.0 30,151,056
"Please excuse the crudity of this model. I didn't have time to build it to scale"
Then I went through HowdidIdo and took it as fact that everyone's score is posted there. Obviously that's a huge leap of faith as better players are more likely to have a handicap. I can sleep at night with that assumption though. I'm just going to say that to be ranked, you need a handicap.
Then I looked through the rounds registered on howdidido
Cat 1 1657439 6.54%
Cat 2 7069810 27.89%
Cat 3 10368028 40.90%
Cat 4 4977036 19.64%
Cat 5 1274508 5.03%
25346821
I messed around with some Standard Deviations and Means until there was a half decent fit. I ended with a Mean of 15 and a STDEV of 6.5
I also assumed that nobody had a handicap of better than +2 to make sure the curve wasn't messed up by pros.
That feels about right for club golfers. Feel free to discuss that. It would put 2/3rds of club golfers at 8.5 to 21.5, can't be horribly wrong you'd think.
Here's the match with those numbers vs Howdidido.
Cat ---- Neil ---- Howdidido
1 --- 06.54% --- 06.54%
2 --- 27.26% --- 27.89%
3 --- 44.67% --- 40.90%
4 --- 17.60% --- 19.64%
5 --- 02.13% --- 05.03%
Those numbers seem reasonably close. There's a problem with the fact that men can't go above 28 and ladies can, so I'm not too concerned with the cat 5 issue on a maths level. The model certainly overestimates the strength of the average golfer because of it though.
Using those figures it turns out that 19.44% of people on Howdidido are 9.4 or lower. We're looking for our world ranking, so we make 9.4 equal 6 millionth.
I ended up with
0.0 324,207
0.1 337,653
0.2 351,582
0.3 366,008
0.4 380,944
0.5 396,405
0.6 412,407
0.7 428,963
0.8 446,089
0.9 463,800
1.0 482,112
1.1 501,041
1.2 520,604
1.3 540,816
1.4 561,694
1.5 583,255
1.6 605,516
1.7 628,494
1.8 652,207
1.9 676,673
2.0 701,909
2.1 727,934
2.2 754,765
2.3 782,422
2.4 810,923
2.5 840,287
2.6 870,532
2.7 901,678
2.8 933,744
2.9 966,750
3.0 1,000,714
3.1 1,035,657
3.2 1,071,598
3.3 1,108,557
3.4 1,146,554
3.5 1,185,608
3.6 1,225,740
3.7 1,266,970
3.8 1,309,317
3.9 1,352,801
4.0 1,397,444
4.1 1,443,264
4.2 1,490,281
4.3 1,538,515
4.4 1,587,987
4.5 1,638,716
4.6 1,690,721
4.7 1,744,022
4.8 1,798,638
4.9 1,854,589
5.0 1,911,894
5.1 1,970,571
5.2 2,030,639
5.3 2,092,116
5.4 2,155,022
5.5 2,219,373
5.6 2,285,187
5.7 2,352,483
5.8 2,421,275
5.9 2,491,582
6.0 2,563,420
6.1 2,636,805
6.2 2,711,751
6.3 2,788,275
6.4 2,866,392
6.5 2,946,114
6.6 3,027,457
6.7 3,110,433
6.8 3,195,055
6.9 3,281,335
7.0 3,369,286
7.1 3,458,917
7.2 3,550,241
7.3 3,643,265
7.4 3,738,001
7.5 3,834,457
7.6 3,932,639
7.7 4,032,557
7.8 4,134,216
7.9 4,237,622
8.0 4,342,781
8.1 4,449,696
8.2 4,558,371
8.3 4,668,810
8.4 4,781,014
8.5 4,894,985
8.6 5,010,723
8.7 5,128,227
8.8 5,247,496
8.9 5,368,528
9.0 5,491,321
9.1 5,615,869
9.2 5,742,169
9.3 5,870,215
9.4 6,000,000
9.5 6,131,517
9.6 6,264,756
9.7 6,399,710
9.8 6,536,367
9.9 6,674,717
10.0 6,814,746
10.1 6,956,443
10.2 7,099,792
10.3 7,244,780
10.4 7,391,389
10.5 7,539,603
10.6 7,689,404
10.7 7,840,773
10.8 7,993,691
10.9 8,148,136
11.0 8,304,087
11.1 8,461,522
11.2 8,620,417
11.3 8,780,747
11.4 8,942,487
11.5 9,105,612
11.6 9,270,093
11.7 9,435,903
11.8 9,603,014
11.9 9,771,395
12.0 9,941,016
12.1 10,111,845
12.2 10,283,851
12.3 10,457,001
12.4 10,631,261
12.5 10,806,596
12.6 10,982,973
12.7 11,160,353
12.8 11,338,702
12.9 11,517,982
13.0 11,698,156
13.1 11,879,184
13.2 12,061,028
13.3 12,243,649
13.4 12,427,006
13.5 12,611,058
13.6 12,795,765
13.7 12,981,086
13.8 13,166,977
13.9 13,353,397
14.0 13,540,303
14.1 13,727,651
14.2 13,915,400
14.3 14,103,504
14.4 14,291,920
14.5 14,480,604
14.6 14,669,511
14.7 14,858,597
14.8 15,047,818
14.9 15,237,128
15.0 15,426,483
15.1 15,615,837
15.2 15,805,147
15.3 15,994,368
15.4 16,183,454
15.5 16,372,361
15.6 16,561,045
15.7 16,749,461
15.8 16,937,565
15.9 17,125,314
16.0 17,312,663
16.1 17,499,568
16.2 17,685,988
16.3 17,871,880
16.4 18,057,200
16.5 18,241,907
16.6 18,425,959
16.7 18,609,316
16.8 18,791,937
16.9 18,973,781
17.0 19,154,809
17.1 19,334,983
17.2 19,514,263
17.3 19,692,612
17.4 19,869,993
17.5 20,046,369
17.6 20,221,704
17.7 20,395,964
17.8 20,569,114
17.9 20,741,120
18.0 20,911,949
18.1 21,081,570
18.2 21,249,951
18.3 21,417,062
18.4 21,582,872
18.5 21,747,353
18.6 21,910,478
18.7 22,072,218
18.8 22,232,549
18.9 22,391,443
19.0 22,548,878
19.1 22,704,829
19.2 22,859,275
19.3 23,012,192
19.4 23,163,561
19.5 23,313,362
19.6 23,461,576
19.7 23,608,186
19.8 23,753,173
19.9 23,896,522
20.0 24,038,219
20.1 24,178,248
20.2 24,316,598
20.3 24,453,255
20.4 24,588,209
20.5 24,721,449
20.6 24,852,965
20.7 24,982,750
20.8 25,110,796
20.9 25,237,096
21.0 25,361,645
21.1 25,484,437
21.2 25,605,469
21.3 25,724,739
21.4 25,842,243
21.5 25,957,980
21.6 26,071,951
21.7 26,184,155
21.8 26,294,594
21.9 26,403,269
22.0 26,510,185
22.1 26,615,343
22.2 26,718,749
22.3 26,820,408
22.4 26,920,326
22.5 27,018,509
22.6 27,114,964
22.7 27,209,700
22.8 27,302,725
22.9 27,394,048
23.0 27,483,680
23.1 27,571,630
23.2 27,657,911
23.3 27,742,533
23.4 27,825,509
23.5 27,906,851
23.6 27,986,574
23.7 28,064,690
23.8 28,141,214
23.9 28,216,160
24.0 28,289,545
24.1 28,361,383
24.2 28,431,690
24.3 28,500,483
24.4 28,567,778
24.5 28,633,592
24.6 28,697,943
24.7 28,760,849
24.8 28,822,326
24.9 28,882,395
25.0 28,941,072
25.1 28,998,376
25.2 29,054,327
25.3 29,108,943
25.4 29,162,244
25.5 29,214,250
25.6 29,264,978
25.7 29,314,450
25.8 29,362,684
25.9 29,409,702
26.0 29,455,521
26.1 29,500,164
26.2 29,543,648
26.3 29,585,995
26.4 29,627,225
26.5 29,667,357
26.6 29,706,411
26.7 29,744,408
26.8 29,781,367
26.9 29,817,308
27.0 29,852,251
27.1 29,886,216
27.2 29,919,221
27.3 29,951,287
27.4 29,982,433
27.5 30,012,679
27.6 30,042,042
27.7 30,070,543
27.8 30,098,200
27.9 30,125,031
28.0 30,151,056
"Please excuse the crudity of this model. I didn't have time to build it to scale"
bladeplayer
Money List Winner
Not sure but its 3rd at the very best ,, the 2 guys i played with sunday beat me .. oh wait theres a mate whose better than me aswell , so at best its 4th .. so going by Neil im somewhere between 4th and 5,368,528th il let u guess which im closer to
Ohhhh, I underestimated myself, Im just over the 4,000,000 mark, hopefully break into the top 3 mil on Saturdays medal.
HickoryShaft
Tour Rookie
I like your style - and very pleased I wan't doing the math here but the above assumption is not as universal as you think.
So just as a way of making the cat 3&4 men a little happier I would mention that you are probably 'more' better than average than you think.
Basis for this is experience in Austria where the mens H/C goes up to 56 so my work collegue (off 10 and from the UK) and I gave 39 and 29 shots respectively to someone in our group and still won.
Made me feel a bit better about my current standard
Using this weighting on the above excellent bit of work I will go for just inside the top 25 million - yay.
EZprophet
Head Pro
Nice work Neil. Interesting stuff.
My guess on my ranking was only 500,000 out!!
My guess on my ranking was only 500,000 out!!
Lawrence22
Challenge Tour Pro
59,999,999 th. The brother in law is even worse than me.
3.5 millionth now, a healthy drop of 500,000 with todays 76
clubchamp07
Journeyman Pro
Oh my head hurts!!!!
