Virtually certain

"even though it is almost certain if it is not found, it is in penalty area (way beyond 95% certain)"

If it is way beyond 95% certain it is virtually certain and you cannot play a provisional but must take relief from the penalty area. If he plays what he believes to be a provisional ball, he has played under stroke and distance
Well, that goes completely against what you said then. Does it not? You seemed to suggest that of there was any chance at all the ball could be lost outside penalty area, player could hit a provisional?
 
Well, that goes completely against what you said then. Does it not? You seemed to suggest that of there was any chance at all the ball could be lost outside penalty area, player could hit a provisional?
I would agree with that statement. If it is "known" that the original ball is in a penalty area, a second ball played from the original spot, even if called a provisional, becomes the ball in play under stroke and distance. Imo, "virtually certain" does not apply when considering whether a provisional can be played. The Rules say that a provisional ball may be played if the original MAY be lost outside a penalty area - no probabilities (other than 100%, ie, known) are considered.
 
I would agree with that statement. If it is "known" that the original ball is in a penalty area, a second ball played from the original spot, even if called a provisional, becomes the ball in play under stroke and distance. Imo, "virtually certain" does not apply when considering whether a provisional can be played. The Rules say that a provisional ball may be played if the original MAY be lost outside a penalty area - no probabilities (other than 100%, ie, known) are considered.
The first part of your paragraph contradicts the second part. Not your issue, but I guess the wording of the rules.

When you say "known", do you mean virtually certain to the 95% definition? If so, then I'd agree that a ball called a provisional cant be a provisional.

However, the second part then says a provisional can be a provisional, even if the chance it is lost is under 5%. Even if the chance is 0.0005%, a provisional could be allowed.

When referees often have to make a judgement when a player is fairly trying to get relief or not (based on their description on how they'd play their shot), I'd have thought a referee would simply have to also make an objective opinion on this particular situation if it came about.

I genuinely encourage a player to hit a provisional when there is a chance a ball could be lost, such as hitting it into area with medium rough, leaves, trees, etc. But, going back to Traminators question, if the rough is such that it is virtually certain ball is not lost, then I'd have thought a sensible conclusion would need to be that it would be unreasonable to play a provisional
 
Hey guys. Just been struggling through this thread balancing the learned opinions with those of the agitators :rolleyes:

Reading the OP, it seems that the player had no idea where his ball had gone so hit a provisional. Surely that is allowed.

The question was that the group in front confirmed (????) that the ball had gone in the penalty area so was he able to drop.

Simples????

Edit. I Think Rulefan covered it in post 2 :rolleyes:
 
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Hey guys. Just been struggling through this thread balancing the learned opinions with those of the agitators :rolleyes:

Reading the OP, it seems that the player had no idea where his ball had gone so hit a provisional. Surely that is allowed.

The question was that the group in front confirmed (????) that the ball had gone in the penalty area so was he able to drop.

Simples????
The OP said he knew it was either in bunker, rough or penalty area. If in bunker, one would expect it wouldn't be lost. Traminators question was simply related to type of rough. It could be that if it was short rough, ball wouldn't be lost there either (rough at some courses can be same length as fairway at other courses after all)

So, if that meant the only way the ball could be lost if it went into penalty area, then a provisional cannot be played
 
The OP said he knew it was either in bunker, rough or penalty area.

Ah. So he knew that it had come to earth somewhere other than fairway or green (oops. Sorry. No fairway on a par3 ??), but didn't know where. With the recent weather, it could well have been lost in the bunker. We don't know, we weren't there. We don't know the length of the rough. Think I would take a pro in that scenario. By definition, he wasn't virtually certain that the ball was in a penalty area so played a provisional. The question was, as far as I can ascertain, could/should he drop outside the penalty area as he was told by an outside agency that his ball was in the PA.
 
The OP said he knew it was either in bunker, rough or penalty area. If in bunker, one would expect it wouldn't be lost. Traminators question was simply related to type of rough. It could be that if it was short rough, ball wouldn't be lost there either (rough at some courses can be same length as fairway at other courses after all)

So, if that meant the only way the ball could be lost if it went into penalty area, then a provisional cannot be played

The length of the rough has absolutely nothing to do with it. If the player thinks his ball may be lost anywhere other than in a penalty area, he may play a provisional ball. That's what the rule says without any qualification whatsoever. There is really nothing more to be said than that.
 
The first part of your paragraph contradicts the second part. Not your issue, but I guess the wording of the rules.

When you say "known", do you mean virtually certain to the 95% definition? If so, then I'd agree that a ball called a provisional cant be a provisional.

However, the second part then says a provisional can be a provisional, even if the chance it is lost is under 5%. Even if the chance is 0.0005%, a provisional could be allowed.

When referees often have to make a judgement when a player is fairly trying to get relief or not (based on their description on how they'd play their shot), I'd have thought a referee would simply have to also make an objective opinion on this particular situation if it came about.

I genuinely encourage a player to hit a provisional when there is a chance a ball could be lost, such as hitting it into area with medium rough, leaves, trees, etc. But, going back to Traminators question, if the rough is such that it is virtually certain ball is not lost, then I'd have thought a sensible conclusion would need to be that it would be unreasonable to play a provisional
I don't agree that my post contradicts itself. When I say "known", then it means 100% certainty, no doubt that it is anywhere else, that the ball is in a penalty area. I purposely separated "known" from "virtually certain", as "virtually certain is not applicable when deciding if a provisional is permitted. If there is any doubt, no matter how small, that the ball may be lost outside a penalty area, a provisional ball is permitted.
Summary - the terms of "known or virtually certain" have no relevance in determining whether or not a provisional may be played. A provisional may be played any time the original ball MAY be lost outside a penalty area or MAY be out of bounds. Obviously, if it is known that the original is in a penalty area, there is no chance it MAY be lost outside the penalty area.
 
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The length of the rough has absolutely nothing to do with it. If the player thinks his ball may be lost anywhere other than in a penalty area, he may play a provisional ball. That's what the rule says without any qualification whatsoever. There is really nothing more to be said than that.
So, why was Traminators question not reasonable? I.e. is it reasonable to say ball could be lost? If that is not a reasonable question, then all.my previous posts are valid. A player can never be questioned about playing a provisional, as they can always say it could be lost
 
Ah. So he knew that it had come to earth somewhere other than fairway or green (oops. Sorry. No fairway on a par3 ??), but didn't know where. With the recent weather, it could well have been lost in the bunker. We don't know, we weren't there. We don't know the length of the rough. Think I would take a pro in that scenario. By definition, he wasn't virtually certain that the ball was in a penalty area so played a provisional. The question was, as far as I can ascertain, could/should he drop outside the penalty area as he was told by an outside agency that his ball was in the PA.
EXACTLY. We don't know the state or condition of the bunker or rough. Which is exactly why Traminator asked the question in 1st place.

If I told you the bunker was in perfect condition, and the rough was marginally longer than fairway (and shorter than fairway and many other courses). Furthermore, this so called rough was a strip of about half a metre wide. How on earth could anybody reasonably say it could be lost outside penalty area?

Even take away rough. Had OP said the ball was either in bunker, fairway or penalty area, would it be OK to play provisional? Had they said ball was either in penalty area or fairway, would it be OK to play provisional?

Again, I appreciate a player can play provisional if they think ball us lost, but it is a limitation of the rule if a player could potentially abuse it. Any time, for example, they duff an approach into a green side bunker, they could say it might be lost (as they dont see it lying in bunker) and hit a provisional. Given it is 99.9999% certain it is in the bunker, they effectively have a practice shot. Unless anyone sees ball physically sitting in bunker, is there genuinely any way a fellow competitor or opponent stop a player from doing this, if the player simply says it could be lost?
 
So, why was Traminators question not reasonable? I.e. is it reasonable to say ball could be lost? If that is not a reasonable question, then all.my previous posts are valid. A player can never be questioned about playing a provisional, as they can always say it could be lost
The Rules say "may be lost outside a penalty area", not just "may be lost".
 
EXACTLY. We don't know the state or condition of the bunker or rough. Which is exactly why Traminator asked the question in 1st place.

If I told you the bunker was in perfect condition, and the rough was marginally longer than fairway (and shorter than fairway and many other courses). Furthermore, this so called rough was a strip of about half a metre wide. How on earth could anybody reasonably say it could be lost outside penalty area?
If the player was aware of those facts, he wouldn't play a provisional in the first place.

Even take away rough. Had OP said the ball was either in bunker, fairway or penalty area, would it be OK to play provisional? Had they said ball was either in penalty area or fairway, would it be OK to play provisional?
If the player was sure his ball was in a bunker or on the fairway, he wouldn't play a provisional in the first place unless he knew of factors peculiar to that part of the that fairway (a tendency to accumulate leaves for example) or to that bunker (a tendency for balls to get buried).

Again, I appreciate a player can play provisional if they think ball us lost, but it is a limitation of the rule if a player could potentially abuse it. Any time, for example, they duff an approach into a green side bunker, they could say it might be lost (as they dont see it lying in bunker) and hit a provisional. Given it is 99.9999% certain it is in the bunker, they effectively have a practice shot. Unless anyone sees ball physically sitting in bunker, is there genuinely any way a fellow competitor or opponent stop a player from doing this, if the player simply says it could be lost?
It is a limitation of most if not all rules that a player can breach them or in the case of a permissive rule like this one abuse it. You are absolutely right to alert us to the potential for an unscrupulous player to abuse this one by playing multiple provisionals in order to get away with practising on the course. But in the words of one of our rule makers, "Tell me when it happens. Then tell me when it happens again and we'll take notice".

Given it is 99.9999% certain it is in the bunker, they effectively have a practice shot. Unless anyone sees ball physically sitting in bunker, is there genuinely any way a fellow competitor or opponent stop a player from doing this, if the player simply says it could be lost?
No. Players are not referees. In stroke play, another player can report a matter to the Committee and a marker can decline to certify a score. In matchplay an opponent can make a claim. Do re-open this thread when you hear of multiple provisions being played or come across an historical record of its having happened.
 
Thanks Colin. But, your answers simply reinforce why Traminator asked the question in first place. Is it not a simple case that you are assuming the player is "reasonably" playing a provisional as it may be lost. Whereas Traminator is simply asking for more information to ascertain if that can be true.

You say a player would not hit a provisional if they didn't think ball was lost outside penalty area. Unfortunately that is untrue, usually put of ignorance rather than pulling a fast one. In past, dozens and dozens of times, I hear a player say "I'll hit a provisional" after duffing one into pond. On our 16th, happens all the time. They pull their tee shot, flys around bunker but may have gone past it. They say "I'll play a provisional". Before they do, I ask them why, and they say it may have gone through to penalty area. Once I tell them that, as long as they think it isn't lost outside penalty area, and we can be virtually certain it is in penalty area if not found, they then decide not to play provisional, and take drop at penalty area if not found.

Rulie was correct earlier. If bunker was perfect condition, and rough was not long enough to lose a ball, it would be interesting what player would have done had they not been told it def went into penalty area. Presumably a qualified referee would say that they must play on with provisional, as the player felt it might have been lost outside penalty area when on tee, and no new information was available thereafter? Their only way to take a drop at penalty area would be if they'd not played course before, so genuinely had no idea what was round the corner
 
Thanks Colin. But, your answers simply reinforce why Traminator asked the question in first place. Is it not a simple case that you are assuming the player is "reasonably" playing a provisional as it may be lost. Whereas Traminator is simply asking for more information to ascertain if that can be true.

You say a player would not hit a provisional if they didn't think ball was lost outside penalty area. Unfortunately that is untrue, usually put of ignorance rather than pulling a fast one. In past, dozens and dozens of times, I hear a player say "I'll hit a provisional" after duffing one into pond. On our 16th, happens all the time. They pull their tee shot, flys around bunker but may have gone past it. They say "I'll play a provisional". Before they do, I ask them why, and they say it may have gone through to penalty area. Once I tell them that, as long as they think it isn't lost outside penalty area, and we can be virtually certain it is in penalty area if not found, they then decide not to play provisional, and take drop at penalty area if not found.

Rulie was correct earlier. If bunker was perfect condition, and rough was not long enough to lose a ball, it would be interesting what player would have done had they not been told it def went into penalty area. Presumably a qualified referee would say that they must play on with provisional, as the player felt it might have been lost outside penalty area when on tee, and no new information was available thereafter? Their only way to take a drop at penalty area would be if they'd not played course before, so genuinely had no idea what was round the corner

I dont see the relevance of knowing the course or not, if a ball is lost and its not certain whether it was in or outside the penalty area then you MUST use the provisional ball or replay the shot (if provisional was not played). You have to be virtually certain ball went into penalty area whether you know course or not. A ball disappearing around a corner where there's water does not make it virtually certain that it went in - IMHO.
 
I dont see the relevance of knowing the course or not, if a ball is lost and its not certain whether it was in or outside the penalty area then you MUST use the provisional ball or replay the shot (if provisional was not played). You have to be virtually certain ball went into penalty area whether you know course or not. A ball disappearing around a corner where there's water does not make it virtually certain that it went in - IMHO.
I agree sawtooth. If they player thinks ball could be lost outside the penalty area, then they absolutely can play a provisional. However, they should be aware that, when they get down there (and assuming they are a member of the course), they cannot suddenly claim they are virtually certain it is in penalty area, unless any additional information comes to light, say a comment from group in front. However, it would make a difference if they didn't know the course at all, because when they were on tee they could not be virtually certain it was in a penalty area they didn't know was there. But, when they get there, it becomes apparent that is is virtually certain it is in the penalty area, given the ball is clearly finadable anywhere else.

I felt Traminator's question was reasonable, and got fairly patronising responses by some. Fair enough, if it is simply the case a player can hit a provisional "because they say so, that it might be lost", then fair enough. However, the statement in Rule 18.3a "But if the player is aware that the only possible place the original ball could be lost is in a penalty area, a provisional ball is not allowed and a ball played from where the previous stroke was made becomes the player’s ball in play under penalty of stroke and distance (see Rule 18.1). " then I guess that clarifies the above, that they can't play a provisional and then suddenly decide it must be in penalty area if they hit a shocking provisional (unless more evidence comes to light).

It is also interesting that a player can say an immovable obstruction interferes with their swing / stance to get relief, but the referee can make their own judgment as to whether this is fair or not. That is something we see on TV quite a lot, and referees can get quite insistent on occasions that the player is not being reasonable in what shot they say they will play. However, a referee cannot make a judgement on a players assessment on whether they think the ball is lost outside a penalty area or not. I guess it is simply down to the way it is written. Thankfully I've not played with anyone who would abuse it, but it would be intriguing if someone did decide to abuse it (i.e. anytime they hit a shot to a blind fairway, even if it appears to be a cracker down the middle, they always hit a provisional on the off chance some sod picked it up out of site, or some other reason it may go missing. Playing at the PGA National at the Belfry could be a very long round, as I seem to remember there being stacks of blind shots.
 
Just to throw something else into the mix, I’ve played a provisional before when I’ve hit an errant tee shot; not because I’ve thought the ball was lost necessarily (although possible) but if out of view on an adjacent fairway for example there is a risk that the ball can be picked up and you’ll never find it.
 
I agree sawtooth. If they player thinks ball could be lost outside the penalty area, then they absolutely can play a provisional. However, they should be aware that, when they get down there (and assuming they are a member of the course), they cannot suddenly claim they are virtually certain it is in penalty area, unless any additional information comes to light, say a comment from group in front. However, it would make a difference if they didn't know the course at all, because when they were on tee they could not be virtually certain it was in a penalty area they didn't know was there. But, when they get there, it becomes apparent that is is virtually certain it is in the penalty area, given the ball is clearly finadable anywhere else.

I felt Traminator's question was reasonable, and got fairly patronising responses by some. Fair enough, if it is simply the case a player can hit a provisional "because they say so, that it might be lost", then fair enough. However, the statement in Rule 18.3a "But if the player is aware that the only possible place the original ball could be lost is in a penalty area, a provisional ball is not allowed and a ball played from where the previous stroke was made becomes the player’s ball in play under penalty of stroke and distance (see Rule 18.1). " then I guess that clarifies the above, that they can't play a provisional and then suddenly decide it must be in penalty area if they hit a shocking provisional (unless more evidence comes to light).

It is also interesting that a player can say an immovable obstruction interferes with their swing / stance to get relief, but the referee can make their own judgment as to whether this is fair or not. That is something we see on TV quite a lot, and referees can get quite insistent on occasions that the player is not being reasonable in what shot they say they will play. However, a referee cannot make a judgement on a players assessment on whether they think the ball is lost outside a penalty area or not. I guess it is simply down to the way it is written. Thankfully I've not played with anyone who would abuse it, but it would be intriguing if someone did decide to abuse it (i.e. anytime they hit a shot to a blind fairway, even if it appears to be a cracker down the middle, they always hit a provisional on the off chance some sod picked it up out of site, or some other reason it may go missing. Playing at the PGA National at the Belfry could be a very long round, as I seem to remember there being stacks of blind shots.

Thankfully, it's a great deal simpler than all of that.
 
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