Virtually certain

[Swango1980]

Thankfully, it's a great deal simpler than all of that.

I accept that. Player says ball may be lost outside a penalty area, end of discussion (unless ball can be physically seen or spotter signals it is OK). Player is allowed to play provisional regardless.

It has been an interesting education though. It gives us all a bit more comfort in fairly hitting more provisional balls if we think there is any possibility something dodgy may happen to an out of sight ball, even if it trickled into the light rough off the fairway. I incorrectly assumed that I could be called up on doing that, when other members of the group are adamant the ball is just in the light rough, and it is definitely not lost in their opinion.

In the OP post, as rulie pointed out, would have been interesting how they would have proceeded had they not been told it went into penalty area. I guess the length of the rough is irrelevant, the player thought it could be lost outside penalty area, so it must be assumed it could still be lost outside penalty area if they can't find it?

 

[rulefan]

In the OP post, as rulie pointed out, would have been interesting how they would have proceeded had they not been told it went into penalty area. I guess the length of the rough is irrelevant, the player thought it could be lost outside penalty area, so it must be assumed it could still be lost outside penalty area if they can't find it?

It depends on what is found out when the player arrives at the scene. The terrain that he thought the ball may be lost in could turn out to quite different when he gets there. What was previously (in his experience a month ago) may now be closely mown on a steep bank down to the PA or even the margin of the PA may have been moved since yesterday.

 

[Swango1980]

It depends on what is found out when the player arrives at the scene. The terrain that he thought the ball may be lost in could turn out to quite different when he gets there. What was previously (in his experience a month ago) may now be closely mown on a steep bank down to the PA or even the margin of the PA may have been moved since yesterday.

Cheers. And appreciate everyone's feedback.

My only worry would be related to our 16th. As said, par 3 169 yards, bunker short left, then about 10 yards width of very very light rough, then penalty area out of site. Sometimes difficult to see if ball ended up in bunker, or bounced over towards PA. A player could say that if they don't find their ball in bunker or light rough, it is virtually certain to be in PA. That would be fair (unless they went miles left, in which case it could hit high trees way short)

So, a player one week sees it bounce towards bunker, but then not sure if it bounced over it or in it. They say they will hit provisional, and make a mess of it as well. When they get up there, they say they are virtually original in penalty area, and claim they just weren't sure what was round the corner on any given day, such as a random family with nuisance kids that could pick their ball up. So, it is agreed it is virtually certain it is in PA, which is a fair assessment, they take drop and play 3rd.

Following week they do the same thing, except they put the provisional to a few inches of the cup. Original not found this time either, so they claim they will assume it could be lost outside PA, and knock provisional in for a 4.

So, in Week 1, was their action acceptable, or would a ref tell them they cannot assume in PA as they felt it could be lost elsewhere when on tee?

If Week 1 was OK as far as the player was concerned, did they act OK in Week 2 also. Or, would a Ref say that, clearly when we got down there there was no nuisance family or other obstacles, so we can now say it is virtually certain ball.in PA, and they must take a drop rather than play provisional?

If player acted OK both weeks, this would allow them to effectively pick between taking a drop with original or play on with provisional, whichever they think will work out to their advantage. So, if neither can be resolved fairly by a ref, is there a local rule that can be applied, such as "on 16th hole, if provisional is played from tee, the player must assume ball is lost outside the PA, unless it is found or is observed to have entered PA by another person". It is a very relevant question for this particular hole, so would be interesting if our Committee maybe need to look into it, or if the rule can simply be applied to stop players getting this option.

Cheers

 

[chrisd]

Surely it's all very simple, if its known, or your at least 95% certain it's in the penalty area then you dont play a provisional. If it's not known or you're less than 95% certain it's in the penalty area then you play a provisional, or face a walk back if it's not found. If its found then the provisional is then out of play and you play according to any applicable penalty, and if it's not found then you play the provisional - the only thing you cant do is to claim it must be in the penalty area if it's not found and you've played a provisional.

 

[chrisd]

Cheers. And appreciate everyone's feedback.

My only worry would be related to our 16th. As said, par 3 169 yards, bunker short left, then about 10 yards width of very very light rough, then penalty area out of site. Sometimes difficult to see if ball ended up in bunker, or bounced over towards PA. A player could say that if they don't find their ball in bunker or light rough, it is virtually certain to be in PA. That would be fair (unless they went miles left, in which case it could hit high trees way short)

So, a player one week sees it bounce towards bunker, but then not sure if it bounced over it or in it. They say they will hit provisional, and make a mess of it as well. When they get up there, they say they are virtually original in penalty area, and claim they just weren't sure what was round the corner on any given day, such as a random family with nuisance kids that could pick their ball up. So, it is agreed it is virtually certain it is in PA, which is a fair assessment, they take drop and play 3rd.

Following week they do the same thing, except they put the provisional to a few inches of the cup. Original not found this time either, so they claim they will assume it could be lost outside PA, and knock provisional in for a 4.

So, in Week 1, was their action acceptable, or would a ref tell them they cannot assume in PA as they felt it could be lost elsewhere when on tee?

If Week 1 was OK as far as the player was concerned, did they act OK in Week 2 also. Or, would a Ref say that, clearly when we got down there there was no nuisance family or other obstacles, so we can now say it is virtually certain ball.in PA, and they must take a drop rather than play provisional?

If player acted OK both weeks, this would allow them to effectively pick between taking a drop with original or play on with provisional, whichever they think will work out to their advantage. So, if neither can be resolved fairly by a ref, is there a local rule that can be applied, such as "on 16th hole, if provisional is played from tee, the player must assume ball is lost outside the PA, unless it is found or is observed to have entered PA by another person". It is a very relevant question for this particular hole, so would be interesting if our Committee maybe need to look into it, or if the rule can simply be applied to stop players getting this option.

Cheers

For me, if a player can't tell whether his ball went in the bunker or not, or in the light rough or not, in the water or not , then he is not at least 95% certain or its been picked up by a child, bird, dog or fox, or has hit stone and veered offline, and he then has to play a provisional and that would be that.

 

[Swango1980]

Surely it's all very simple, if its known, or your at least 95% certain it's in the penalty area then you dont play a provisional. If it's not known or you're less than 95% certain it's in the penalty area then you play a provisional, or face a walk back if it's not found. If its found then the provisional is then out of play and you play according to any applicable penalty, and if it's not found then you play the provisional - the only thing you cant do is to claim it must be in the penalty area if it's not found and you've played a provisional.

I thought it was simple, but the bit highlighted is not the case, as ColinL and rulie state. To play a provsional, a player only has to believe there is a very small chance it is lost outside a penalty area to play a provisional, not 95% it is in penalty area. I would agree with your last sentence however, that is what I feel the conclusion would need to be.

 

[chrisd]

I thought it was simple, but the bit highlighted is not the case, as ColinL and rulie state. To play a provsional, a player only has to believe there is a very small chance it is lost outside a penalty area to play a provisional, not 95% it is in penalty area. I would agree with your last sentence however, that is what I feel the conclusion would need to be.

I'm not sure I agree with your interpretation of Colin or Rulies posts - unless I'm mistaken they are saying - if its certain 100% that the ball is in a PA then you absolutely cant play a provisional. If you are not 100% then, however likely it might be, that it's in a PA, so long as it's not 100%, a player can play a provisional and then play according to what occurs when they reach the scene

 

[Swango1980]

I'm not sure I agree with your interpretation of Colin or Rulies posts - unless I'm mistaken they are saying - if its certain 100% that the ball is in a PA then you absolutely cant play a provisional. If you are not 100% then, however likely it might be, that it's in a PA, so long as it's not 100%, a player can play a provisional and then play according to what occurs when they reach the scene

Yes, but that doesn't fit with your previous statement, where you said if you are at least 95% certain it is in penalty area you don't play a provisional (comment 85). However, he could be 96% certain it is in penalty area, 1% certain it is lost outside penalty area, and then hit a provisional.

 

[Colin L]

I'm not sure I agree with your interpretation of Colin or Rulies posts - unless I'm mistaken they are saying - if its certain 100% that the ball is in a PA then you absolutely cant play a provisional. If you are not 100% then, however likely it might be, that it's in a PA, so long as it's not 100%, a player can play a provisional and then play according to what occurs when they reach the scene

The standard for not playing a provisional is 100% that the ball is in the penalty area:
...if the player is aware that the only possible place the original ball could be lost is in a penalty area, a provisional ball is not allowed. [Rule 18.3a]

 

[rulie]

A test of virtual certainty - "could the ball be anywhere else but in the penalty area?"
It's not the player's opinion or personal judgement that determines 95%, its the facts of the situation.

 

[chrisd]

Yes, but that doesn't fit with your previous statement, where you said if you are at least 95% certain it is in penalty area you don't play a provisional (comment 85). However, he could be 96% certain it is in penalty area, 1% certain it is lost outside penalty area, and then hit a provisional.

As Colin said, and I don't think I've got it wrong, the standard for NOT being able to play a provisional is 100% certainty. If your only 96% certain you may play a provisional but if you do then you'd proceed as if you would were less than 95% certain if your ball is not found. Any ball found in a PA whether a provisional is played or not is then played according to the rules governing its playability. So I guess it's a decision to be made as to 95% to 99% certainty but you can play a provisional and that takes the "virtual certainty" out of the equation.

 

[rulefan]

Surely it's all very simple, if its known, or your at least 95% certain it's in the penalty area then you dont play a provisional. If it's not known or you're less than 95% certain it's in the penalty area then you play a provisional, or face a walk back if it's not found. If its found then the provisional is then out of play and you play according to any applicable penalty, and if it's not found then you play the provisional - the only thing you cant do is to claim it must be in the penalty area if it's not found and you've played a provisional.

That is not quite the story. I said it before and it seems I have to say it again.
Playing a provisional has nothing to do with what the player might find when he arrives at the place where the ball was thought to be.
eg If he finds that the area surrounding the penalty area is clear closely mown ground sloping towards the penalty area and it is obvious that the ball cannot be anywhere else, then he may legitimately claim the ball must be in the penalty area.

 

[rulefan]

18.3a/1 – When Player May Play Provisional Ball
When a player is deciding whether he or she is allowed to play a provisional ball, only the information that is known by the player at that time is considered.

Examples where a provisional ball may be played include when:

• The original ball might be in a penalty area, but it might also be lost outside a penalty area or be out of bounds.
• A player believes the original ball came to rest in the general area and it might be lost. If it is later found in a penalty area within the three-minute search time, the player must abandon the provisional ball.

 

[williamalex1]

True story , Playing Ladybank a few weeks ago my mate WP had a bad day having to hit quite a few provisionals .
Irish Dave our FC quipped " you've hit more provisionals than the RUC " sounded really funny with his accent

 

[Swango1980]

So, to summarise. A player is more than 95% certain their ball is in the penalty area if not found, after their tee shot. However, they do not see it go into penalty area. So, they say there is a 0.1% chance it could be lost outside penalty area, and take a provisional which is permitted. When they get to the area, they do not find ball and therefore say they are still 95% certain it went into penalty area, and so abandon the provisional. Not necessarily how I expected the rule to be interpreted, but at least it is clear now

 

[rulefan]

So, to summarise. A player is more than 95% certain their ball is in the penalty area if not found, after their tee shot. However, they do not see it go into penalty area. So, they say there is a 0.1% chance it could be lost outside penalty area, and take a provisional which is permitted. When they get to the area, they do not find ball and therefore say they are still 95% certain it went into penalty area, and so abandon the provisional. Not necessarily how I expected the rule to be interpreted, but at least it is clear now

That has been the case for many years.

 

[Swango1980]

That has been the case for many years.

Cool, at least it is a good opportunity for a player to play a provisional and then choose which one they prefer when they get down there. I just didn't realise players were allowed to have this option

 

[rulefan]

Cool, at least it is a good opportunity for a player to play a provisional and then choose which one they prefer when they get down there. I just didn't realise players were allowed to have this option

As Colin L has already pointed out in post #90

But if the player is aware that the only possible place the original ball could be lost is in a penalty area, a provisional ball is not allowed and a ball played from where the previous stroke was made becomes the player’s ball in play under penalty of stroke and distance (see Rule 18.1).

 

[Swango1980]

As Colin L has already pointed out in post #90

But if the player is aware that the only possible place the original ball could be lost is in a penalty area, a provisional ball is not allowed and a ball played from where the previous stroke was made becomes the player’s ball in play under penalty of stroke and distance (see Rule 18.1).

Yeah, no problem with that. But, given player wasn't 100%, as per OP, then provisional was fine. If answer to Traminators question about the rough was "it was very short rough, almost impossible to lose ball in it", then the player correctly played provisional, but could still have taken a drop at penalty given they were virtually certain ball.would be lost in PA if not found. Because, when playing a provisional they can be 99.99999% sure it is in penalty area if not found, but as it wasn't seen going in, there is still a 0.00001% chance something bizarre happened to end up lost somewhere else.

Therefore, the rule you quoted, the "only possible place" must be defined as 100%, and does not have the same threshold as virtually certain. So, in OP you could have a perfectly manicured bunker, rough that no one could lose a ball in and the penalty area. But, although the player knew ball would be in one of the 3, they didn't know which one. So, they hit a provisional as they felt there was a chance ball could be lost in the perfectly manicured bunker or very short rough that no one has ever likely lost a ball in before. The player can do this, and the exception to hitting a provisional that you quoted does not apply

 

[rulefan]

The rules of course expect that players will act with integrity. Most do, some don't. The rules cannot always be written to cope with the latter.