US Open betting

[timgolfy]

I've taken a small gamble in the US Open winner market (Betfair).

Rory trading at around 1.5 on Betfair, being 11 under and 7 shots clear. But I think the market has over-reacted to this early display. Many of the leading 20 players are still to go out. I reckon come the end of the day a few of those will have cut that lead to around 4 shots and Rory's price will go drift to around 2.8.

Laying Rory to win in the expectation of the others closing. A good trading opportunity for little risk.

 

[fundy]

He will be a lot shorter than 2.8 if 4 clear unless there is a pack 4 back, that said I think the 1.5 lay is decent. He definitely has to be opposed at some point with his history of leading, just a case of picking the spot to oppose him, happy to let him finish before getting involved here

 

[timgolfy]

I just get the feeling that there are some good scores to be had on the course today. Rory now -6 for the day, but Patrick Cantlay (a) is -4, Bo Van Pelt is -4, and a few others on -3. With half the field still to play, I reckon a pack will be much closer than the current 8 stroke lead.

The way he's playing now I can't see him not winning, but the market has over-reacted, I think.

 

[richart]

Course will be harder in the afternoon, greens get quicker and spiked with all the traffic. Wouldn't surprise me if it is an eight shot lead.

 

[timgolfy]

So he dipped to 1.33 after the 17th, and now up to 1.57.

Will be interesting to see what happens in the afternoon session. I still expect a number of players to close that lead and his price to drift further.

Betfair: US Open 2011 - Winner

 

[chrisd]

I had a £1 e/w on Wednesday on Westwood, Donald, Furyk, Stricker and Snedeker - as my Masters win at 80/1 on Shwartzel bought half my electric trolley, I dont expect a windfall for any other golf gear this weekend - I would be happy for a couple in the top 4 if Rory wins though!


Chris

 

[Garesfield ACE]

Come on Rory its wrapped up if you learnt from Augusta

11/1 I got....he now 1/3...LOVE IT

Backed westwood to finish 2nd this morning..18/1

 

[timgolfy]

Well the charge from the pack didn't happen. I was expecting a few of them to get to around -6/-7, but no show.

Rory now trading at 1.44 to back.

 

[fundy]

stick or twist Tim? you holding or taking a small red?

definitely looking to lay Rory though want to see how he starts first

 

[timgolfy]

Twist for me. I'm out of this now for a red on the field. I was laying Rory from 2.2 down, expecting the field to do better than it has.

 

[timgolfy]

Rory now 1.3. Markets obviously consider it Rory's to lose.
Costly for me, the NI man.

Ho hum.

 

[Garesfield ACE]

come on rory and westwood..my bets are flying at minute