Indyref2

[BrizoH71]

I keep hearing this but is it correct? Can you show me the actual quote where this was promised by the Government.

It was a declaration, made many times by the Better Together campaign throughout Indyref. Such as https://twitter.com/UK_Together/status/506899714923843584 .. David Cameron hinted at the same more than once. But he gambled on the result and lost, and here we are.

 

[drdel]

Scotland needs to open its eyes: the SNP is conning it's citizens

If, for a moment, we assume that a vote to leave the Union is the result in 2019+; what then? The UK will have repealed EU regs. borders will have been modified, trade controls will be different and we may have new relations with other nations.

How exactly does the SNP think it can then fund more change and unravel revised regulations etc. when its economy is probably in a worse state than it already is. OK I forgot the SNP thinks the EU will come rushing in with open arms and an open wallet - that's after its sorted Greece, Italy, Spain and the hassle with Turkey and the immigration control deal !

 

[JT77]

Surely the best thing for the Scottish people is to wait until after the Brexit negotiations are complete, look at the picture form both sides and make an informed decision on which path would be better to follow, if that means independence, then see about calling for a ref, if it means remaining part of the UK, even as a short term solution to establish the pro/cons of the departure from the EU, then they still have the option to ask for another ref.

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Surely the best thing for the Scottish people is to wait until after the Brexit negotiations are complete, look at the picture form both sides and make an informed decision on which path would be better to follow, if that means independence, then see about calling for a ref, if it means remaining part of the UK, even as a short term solution to establish the pro/cons of the departure from the EU, then they still have the option to ask for another ref.

It's not the Scottish people asking for the referendum- the polls still show the country doesn't want it

SNP headed by Jimmy Krankie are the ones pushing for it - they clearly are taking no notice of the people of Scotland

 

[User62651]

Scotland needs to open its eyes: the SNP is conning it's citizens

If, for a moment, we assume that a vote to leave the Union is the result in 2019+; what then? The UK will have repealed EU regs. borders will have been modified, trade controls will be different and we may have new relations with other nations.

How exactly does the SNP think it can then fund more change and unravel revised regulations etc. when its economy is probably in a worse state than it already is. OK I forgot the SNP thinks the EU will come rushing in with open arms and an open wallet - that's after its sorted Greece, Italy, Spain and the hassle with Turkey and the immigration control deal !

With respect you're giving us the Daily Mail view of things, there are plenty of economists who would argue contrary to your statement. Scotlands voters are just as astute/unastute as anywhere else in the UK, we are fully aware of what the SNP are up to, they are no more or less trusted than any other political organisation, no-one is being conned.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Absolutely agree, but with the proviso that the second referendum should be delayed until at least the end of 2019 or the start of 2020 so that the government can focus on the demands of the Brexit negotiations and a decision can be reached on that before campaigning for the Indy ref can start. Personally I don't think that the government should be distracted from Brexit negotiations by the possibility of Scottish independence. I assume that negotiations for Scotland becoming independent would take at least as long as those for the UK leaving the EU, what with sorting out debts and laws etc, so what difference does it make if it gets delayed by 6 months while Brexit is finalised?

The difference is simply that an IndyRef2 whilst UK is still in the EU is held in a very different economic and political context from one held after the UK has left.

Besides. Sturgeon did not, I believe, want to call for IndyRef2 now - because she knows the YES situation is precarious - but the circumstances of Brexit forced her hand. I suspect she is OK with May delaying her granting of IndyRef2 for some time. Any benefits accruing from leaving the EU will not, IMO, have manifested themselves in the timescales of a post-Brexit IndyRef2 - whilst I suspect that some of the problems will - especially if we end up with a No Deal

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

It's not the Scottish people asking for the referendum- the polls still show the country doesn't want it

SNP headed by Jimmy Krankie are the ones pushing for it - they clearly are taking no notice of the people of Scotland

She is pushing for it because politically she has to be seen to be pushing for it - I am fairly convinced she does not wish her request to be granted for some time.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

With respect you're giving us the Daily Mail view of things, there are plenty of economists who would argue contrary to your statement. Scotlands voters are just as astute/unastute as anywhere else in the UK, we are fully aware of what the SNP are up to, they are no more or less trusted than any other political organisation, no-one is being conned.

And I'll add - the Scottish electorate are now well-versed in the key arguments, and therefore will ask the hard questions and expect answers. Team Pro-Indy know the factors that made them fall short last time and so best have good answers. And they know that they have to have an economic case that cannot hide behind the chimera of oil revenue being a nice-to-have.

 

[Hobbit]

The difference is simply that an IndyRef2 whilst UK is still in the EU is held in a very different economic and political context from one held after the UK has left.

Besides. Sturgeon did not, I believe, want to call for IndyRef2 now - because she knows the YES situation is precarious - but the circumstances of Brexit forced her hand. I suspect she is OK with May delaying her granting of IndyRef2 for some time. Any benefits accruing from leaving the EU will not, IMO, have manifested themselves in the timescales of a post-Brexit IndyRef2 - whilst I suspect that some of the problems will - especially if we end up with a No Deal

Re the bit I've bolded, I think she was absolutely gagging for it immediately after the June Brexit result but has become far more coy about it since.

Is she playing a canny game of really sorry or is she terrified of the financial meltdown that might occur if Indey2 is successful?

I wonder how much of a divorce settlement the rest of the UK will demand off Scotland, aka the EU demand for €60billion from the UK?

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Re the bit I've bolded, I think she was absolutely gagging for it immediately after the June Brexit result but has become far more coy about it since.

Is she playing a canny game of really sorry or is she terrified of the financial meltdown that might occur if Indey2 is successful?

I wonder how much of a divorce settlement the rest of the UK will demand off Scotland, aka the EU demand for €60billion from the UK?

Possibly - but think her stance is more political expediency

And on the bold bit - This would surely depend upon how much Scotland had committed and signed-up to to provide to England over the period following a Scottish secession from the UK. But hold on. The Scottish Parliament doesn't send money to Westminster - it gets it's funding via the Barnett formula from Westminster. So nothing to be paid to Westminster.

In fact the question might then actually be - what will the UK have pay Scotland if Scotland votes to leave the UK due to Westminster signing up to funding commitments to Scotland under the Barnett formula. Now that would be fun...

 

[drdel]

With respect you're giving us the Daily Mail view of things, there are plenty of economists who would argue contrary to your statement. Scotlands voters are just as astute/unastute as anywhere else in the UK, we are fully aware of what the SNP are up to, they are no more or less trusted than any other political organisation, no-one is being conned.

Sorry to disappoint but I don't read the Daily Mail. If you are challenging the nation's ability to fund more change that's fine but I've not seen evidence that Scotland's economy has positive projections, (and I happen to be an economist) Didn't say the Scots were all misguided - clearly since the SNP are steering the nation it's convinced/conned the necessary number!

 

[Hobbit]

clearly since the SNP are steering the nation it's convinced/conned the necessary number!

Is the right answer!

 

[User62651]

Is the right answer!

No, it's an opinion.

 

[Hobbit]

No, it's an opinion.

Do you believe the SNP's financial model is good for the country?

 

[Val]

The IFS have a very good projection of the current state of the Scottish economy inc it's debt level and GDP%. I don't believe this to be Daily Mail propaganda and I don't believe it to be manipulated. They have no reason to...............so

How does Scotland move away from a projected £10.6bn of debt and a GDP of 9.4% by the year end 2016-2017 (as of 26/03/16)

The IFS also suggests that in the event of a split and by some miracle Scotlands takes on none of the UK debt it is still projected to have a deficit of 7.6% of income as apposed to the current 9.4%

So, an Independent Scotland requires spending cuts and tax rises just to try to return to a break even balance sheet.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

The IFS have a very good projection of the current state of the Scottish economy inc it's debt level and GDP%. I don't believe this to be Daily Mail propaganda and I don't believe it to be manipulated. They have no reason to...............so

How does Scotland move away from a projected £10.6bn of debt and a GDP of 9.4% by the year end 2016-2017 (as of 26/03/16)

The IFS also suggests that in the event of a split and by some miracle Scotlands takes on none of the UK debt it is still projected to have a deficit of 7.6% of income as apposed to the current 9.4%

So, an Independent Scotland requires spending cuts and tax rises just to try to return to a break even balance sheet.

...as the economy of the rUK goes down the plug-hole and austerity measures tighten - with those who can least afford it paying the highest price for the Brexit stupidity.

All good isn't it.

 

[Val]

...as the economy of the rUK goes down the plug-hole and austerity measures tighten - with those who can least afford it paying the highest price for the Brexit stupidity.

All good isn't it.

Stupid yes but it's happening

 

[User62651]

The IFS have a very good projection of the current state of the Scottish economy inc it's debt level and GDP%. I don't believe this to be Daily Mail propaganda and I don't believe it to be manipulated. They have no reason to...............so

How does Scotland move away from a projected £10.6bn of debt and a GDP of 9.4% by the year end 2016-2017 (as of 26/03/16)

The IFS also suggests that in the event of a split and by some miracle Scotlands takes on none of the UK debt it is still projected to have a deficit of 7.6% of income as apposed to the current 9.4%

So, an Independent Scotland requires spending cuts and tax rises just to try to return to a break even balance sheet.

It's a psychological thing, tax is a dirty word here and the high earners and corporations are able to dodge paying a lot of it. Higher taxes works very well for Denmark, Norway, Finland etc who all seem to score highest in quality of life and happiness scores. Denmark as a little northern European nation is debt free now, UK is trillions in debt. Scotland would have to have tax rises, some would consider it worth it others wouldn't.

 

[Val]

It's a psychological thing, tax is a dirty word here and the high earners and corporations are able to dodge paying a lot of it. Higher taxes works very well for Denmark, Norway, Finland etc who all seem to score highest in quality of life and happiness scores. Denmark as a little northern European nation is debt free now, UK is trillions in debt. Scotland would have to have tax rises, some would consider it worth it others wouldn't.

So how do you get the low earners, benefit busters and free loaders in the most deprived areas who are desperate for independence paying more tax? Lots of these people have been born into deprivation, they know no other means of life and have no interest in getting a job and bettering themselves. I live in one of those areas and believe me it's not pretty.

Sounds very scathing that paragraph but it's the reality in many parts of Lanarkshire, Ayrshire, Glasgow and many other parts of Scotland it's every day life

 

[Tashyboy]

So how do you get the low earners, benefit busters and free loaders in the most deprived areas who are desperate for independence paying more tax? Lots of these people have been born into deprivation, they know no other means of life and have no interest in getting a job and bettering themselves. I live in one of those areas and believe me it's not pretty.

Sounds very scathing that paragraph but it's the reality in many parts of Lanarkshire, Ayrshire, Glasgow and many other parts of Scotland it's every day life

Well put val and the same could be said for large swathes of Wales. But believe Scotland otlnd has a Bit more uk brass spent on it than Wales per head which is convieniantly forgotten by some.