EU Referendum

[Del_Boy]

I dont think thats a good analogy. A better one would be if a Friend rang you up and said I am starting a new business, how would you like to come and join me so that we could make our own way rather than be minions in the current outfit that seems to be losing it's way.

To that I can ask him what are your business plans what is that based on etc before making an informed decision . With brexit to me there is no plan as to what happens next if we vote out.

 

[SocketRocket]

I think I kicked off this whole sorry episode about science funding about 3 thousand posts back saying Hawking and 150 Royal Society Scientists, including 3 Nobel laureates and The Astronomer Royal, wrote a letter to The Times saying they wanted us to stay in. Not sure if that counts as 'many' in the fact based proof world we live in on this forum. Possibly it's 'quite a few', certainly 'a decent number' and I'd go as far as saying more than 'a handful' .

Sorry but I do not know each of their names through before you ask for that. The ghost of Magnus Pyke and Patrick Moore may have been in there, but I can't confirm that. Also possibly Nina from Nina and the Neurons on CBBC? Doc from Back to the Future?? The 2 nerdy lads who created Kelly LeBrock in Weird Science? Sorry, I'm struggling here.

I'm never sure whether these comments you make a light hearted or cynical. I suspect the latter but admit I may be wrong as I tend to take peoples comments very much at face value. I guess my stalker will be along to compound the situation very soon.

 

[SocketRocket]

To that I can ask him what are your business plans what is that based on etc before making an informed decision . With brexit to me there is no plan as to what happens next if we vote out.

To which he may well reply: We have a great product which we have great confidence in and have a track record in sales around the world. Our expertise and freedom to trade with more customers now we are not tied down to the restrictive practices of our previous company could and should be the best opportunity we will ever have. There will be a risk as there is staying as we are but are you up for a challenge?

 

[Hacker Khan]

I'm never sure whether these comments you make a light hearted or cynical. I suspect the latter but admit I may be wrong as I tend to take peoples comments very much at face value. I guess my stalker will be along to compound the situation very soon.

You don't do humour or irony do you?

 

[SocketRocket]

You don't do humour or irony do you?

I often get confused when people make comments like you did in that post. You seem to be very serious on the subject then put in these comments that can be construed as belittling the opponent or just outright contradictory in abstraction. So you are probably correct. I don't.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

It suits many institutions like Universities to stay in the EU, they get a lot of Undergraduates from there and are concerned that they will lose revenue if we leave. If they came out and said that then I could understand their concerns but to suggest that research and development would become an extinct species in the UK if we leave is IMO not true. You can of course ignore my opinion or consider it wrong but I assure you it is not a scare story, more a story of hope and confidence in my Nation.

Who is suggesting this? I am certainly not- and the community stating the benefits and risks isn't either. So in fact you are creating scaremongering and putting it at the door of the Remain campaign. I repeat, if this scientific community is neither significant nor representative, then where is the equivalent grouping telling us that things will be just fine when we leave, I don not hear these groups.

But no. Brexit choose to dismiss the views of these experts and do not counter their stated risks - in much the same way that just over the last few days the views of John Major and the CBI have been dismissed.

And as far as noone knowing how things will be after the referendum. Well we know for sure how things will be were we to stay in. No-one has a scooby about how things will actually be in the long term after an Out. We know for certain a lot of risks that are being framed and put by the various groups and bodies opposed to leaving - and that we dpont get much in the way of mitigations or contingencies from Brexit. And we know for certain that things will be all over the shop in the transitional period to the post exit steady state. But we have no idea how long thattransition will be and no idea of what that new steady state is going to be.

But trust us they say - we can't provide any evidence but trust us -things will be just grand.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

To that I can ask him what are your business plans what is that based on etc before making an informed decision . With brexit to me there is no plan as to what happens next if we vote out.

..and he will be asked about the risks associated with his new business. What are the risks to his business and business plan; what is his financial exposure as a result of these risks; how does he mitigate these risks and do his mitigation plans reduce his financial exposure; what is the cost of his risk mitigations and what is the residual risk with associated likelihood of occurance; and what are his contingency plans for a risk if he has accepted the risk, or his mitigations fail and the risk materialises.

Pretty basic risk management. Hearing nothing of it from Brexit - but seeing plenty of wings a-flapping and hearing many a prayer being incanted

 

[ger147]

Could hardly be closer at the moment...

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Who is suggesting this? I am certainly not- and the community stating the benefits and risks isn't either. So in fact you are creating scaremongering and putting it at the door of the Remain campaign. I repeat, if this scientific community is neither significant nor representative, then where is the equivalent grouping telling us that things will be just fine when we leave, I don not hear these groups.

But no. Brexit choose to dismiss the views of these experts and do not counter their stated risks - in much the same way that just over the last few days the views of John Major and the CBI have been dismissed.

And as far as noone knowing how things will be after the referendum. Well we know for sure how things will be were we to stay in. No-one has a scooby about how things will actually be in the long term after an Out. We know for certain a lot of risks that are being framed and put by the various groups and bodies opposed to leaving - and that we dpont get much in the way of mitigations or contingencies from Brexit. And we know for certain that things will be all over the shop in the transitional period to the post exit steady state. But we have no idea how long thattransition will be and no idea of what that new steady state is going to be.

But trust us they say - we can't provide any evidence but trust us -things will be just grand.

Couple of things in regards the bit i have highlighted - is it possible that things could change for the worse for the UK in the future ? Yes or no

But even if things do stay the same that for a lot of people is a good enough reason to leave the EU

 

[Old Skier]

Could hardly be closer at the moment...

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

Unless the youth come out and vote IMO for what it's worth, it will be an out vote, the record of the pollsters over the last few years appears a bit suspect.

 

[ColchesterFC]

If the government wrote it into law that all current spending levels for projects funded by the EU (scientific research, environmental protection etc) would be maintained if we were to leave the EU and the extra money saved (our £10 billion nett contribution or whatever it is) would be used to increase rather than cut disability benefits and reverse a lot of the austerity measures would any of those saying they are voting to stay be tempted to change their mind?

I know that it won't happen as the government are campaigning for us to stay in but if it was done it would probably be enough to sway me from my current position of not 100% sure but probably just on the side of staying in to actually voting to leave.

 

[SocketRocket]

Who is suggesting this? I am certainly not- and the community stating the benefits and risks isn't either. So in fact you are creating scaremongering and putting it at the door of the Remain campaign. I repeat, if this scientific community is neither significant nor representative, then where is the equivalent grouping telling us that things will be just fine when we leave, I don not hear these groups.

But no. Brexit choose to dismiss the views of these experts and do not counter their stated risks - in much the same way that just over the last few days the views of John Major and the CBI have been dismissed.

And as far as noone knowing how things will be after the referendum. Well we know for sure how things will be were we to stay in. No-one has a scooby about how things will actually be in the long term after an Out. We know for certain a lot of risks that are being framed and put by the various groups and bodies opposed to leaving - and that we dpont get much in the way of mitigations or contingencies from Brexit. And we know for certain that things will be all over the shop in the transitional period to the post exit steady state. But we have no idea how long thattransition will be and no idea of what that new steady state is going to be.

But trust us they say - we can't provide any evidence but trust us -things will be just grand.

The 'Extinct Species' was a tongue in cheek comment (Thought it was me that lacked a sense humour)

OK, how about putting a risk assessment against us staying in the EU. Consider issues like: The state of the Euro and the way this will affect other countries in the same way as Greece, the failing economies, high unemployment, destabilisation due to current migration levels, the security issues derived through Shengin, the falling trade levels, the probable acceptance of Turkey into the EU. And you think leaving is riddled with risk!!

 

[MegaSteve]

That is another point on which you and I disagree.

Even the basic argument you make, that nobody knows what will happen, even if that is true, that means a period of huge uncertainty. The stock markets hate uncertainty, so the stock market will take a dive, along with your pension fund (depending on where it is invested) and mine.

Stock markets take a dive seemingly at every opportunity... And, usually for reasons ordinary working folk like myself will never fully understand... If it wasn't about possible 'brexit' the suits, I am sure, would find another reason to panic and take a dip into my pension pot...

 

[Hobbit]

Who is suggesting this? I am certainly not- and the community stating the benefits and risks isn't either. So in fact you are creating scaremongering and putting it at the door of the Remain campaign. I repeat, if this scientific community is neither significant nor representative, then where is the equivalent grouping telling us that things will be just fine when we leave, I don not hear these groups. .

Remind me how many experts. Was it 150 out of 64 million? Is that truly representative? Is that truly representative of the voting population? Is that truly representative of the Remainers?

Are you that blinkered that 150 people out of xx millions is what you are hanging your hat on? Really! 150 people! 150 people are your peers out of xx million?! Seriously?!

4 pages of you hanging your hat on 150 people is the back bone of your argument?!

Well whoopee do, you've convinced me coz 150 people have said..... Sorry but whether you're arguing for or against that just Rollox!

 

[Del_Boy]

To which he may well reply: We have a great product which we have great confidence in and have a track record in sales around the world. Our expertise and freedom to trade with more customers now we are not tied down to the restrictive practices of our previous company could and should be the best opportunity we will ever have. There will be a risk as there is staying as we are but are you up for a challenge?

to which I would reply where is your market research that even remotely suggests we can increase our sales from what we are currently selling

 

[Big Whacker]

We are well above the majority of countries who want a slice of British cake. Why should we let the have it when we can't provide for our own?

I'm out.

 

[Hacker Khan]

Remind me how many experts. Was it 150 out of 64 million? Is that truly representative? Is that truly representative of the voting population? Is that truly representative of the Remainers?

Are you that blinkered that 150 people out of xx millions is what you are hanging your hat on? Really! 150 people! 150 people are your peers out of xx million?! Seriously?!

4 pages of you hanging your hat on 150 people is the back bone of your argument?!

Well whoopee do, you've convinced me coz 150 people have said..... Sorry but whether you're arguing for or against that just Rollox!

I think the point is that it was 150 of the most prominent scientists, who you would have to assume know what they are talking about in their specific field and represent the views of leading lights in the science community. It is not everyone that has even used a bunsen burner in the country. And I am sure other scientists may well disagree. But the fact that they are the most prominent scientists is why some people are listening to their argument when it comes to science funding. And to some people science funding is important.

But it is free country and if people want to dismiss/ignore it and science funding is not something that bothers them then that's perfectly fine as well.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I think the point is that it was 150 of the most prominent scientists, who you would have to assume know what they are talking about in their specific field and represent the views of leading lights in the science community. It is not everyone that has even used a bunsen burner in the country. And I am sure other scientists may well disagree. But the fact that they are the most prominent scientists is why some people are listening to their argument when it comes to science funding. And to some people science funding is important.

But it is free country and if people want to dismiss/ignore it and science funding is not something that bothers them then that's perfectly fine as well.

And fine with me too. I just suggested that the attitude towards what this group have said about staying/leaving is a bit symptomatic of the response Brexiteers give to any input from any group putting the case for staying and expressing the risks they see with leaving. Risks are dismissed and benefits predicted as being equally available to a UK out of the EU.

But I recognise that this is as much, if not more, a matter of the heart as it is the head - so arguments and requests I have made for Brexiteers to counter the risks will fall on largely deaf ears. Because for Brexiteers - just as for those proponents of independence in the Scottish referendum said - are clearly and simply expressing a willingness to take the risk, and work to make a UK out of the EU as successful as it currently is - if not better.

 

[Ethan]

Stock markets take a dive seemingly at every opportunity... And, usually for reasons ordinary working folk like myself will never fully understand... If it wasn't about possible 'brexit' the suits, I am sure, would find another reason to panic and take a dip into my pension pot...

They fall for a variety of reasons indeed, but ordinary working people often lose out, so if you are OK with another loss, fine.

One thing that will happen for certain is canny big money investors exploiting and possibly even driving the uncertainty so they can short sell and make a killing. The same will happen with the pound versus the euro. Basically they sell loads of stock (or currency), which contributes to the drop in price, then they further talk the price down, then buy it back at a lower price and when it recovers, they are sitting on a very tidy profit. Their automatic buying and selling systems are probably already programmed to do this around June 23rd.

 

[MegaSteve]

They fall for a variety of reasons indeed, but ordinary working people often lose out, so if you are OK with another loss, fine.

Ordinary working folk have already 'lost' a great deal due to 'globalisation' [of which EU membership is a part]... So, I am more than willing to 'risk' a bit of de-globalisation as a step in the right direction to restore some balance...