EU Referendum

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Typical downbeat negatives to all things British. I guess Mr Kings opinion is questionable against yours.

The lower pound creates an impetus for export that supports manufacturers that are not over reliant on imported materials. If the consumer bubble is liable to burst then government will need to do all it can to promote and support manufacturing and export. The alternative would be very grim and nothing to do with Brexit.

I dont know if you have any experience with British Industrial relations beyond reading the Guardian but it's not all the same as it was in the 1980's and there are a lot of highly trained graduate HR people around these days. My experience is that on the whole it's not bad at all and I am quite well qualified in that opinion.

Well Mr King is an expert and the Brexiteers told us that we are fed up with experts and hence should dismiss what they say in preference for layman gut feeling. So Foxholder being a 'layman' I go with Foxholder's view.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I guess the BBC are still taking EU Cash and have to keep agitating for a second referendum. They are becoming embarrassing now

Really? Actual evidence of the BBC agitating for a second referendum please.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

I guess the BBC are still taking EU Cash and have to keep agitating for a second referendum. They are becoming embarrassing now

Steady on old boy, where I live they have been embarrassing for quite a while.

Hacker. there was an interesting comparison between the two referendums from the commission.
They said that one was very enlightening and made a lasting political change and that the EU one which basically did the exact opposite. :lol:

 

[SocketRocket]

Well Mr King is an expert and the Brexiteers told us that we are fed up with experts and hence should dismiss what they say in preference for layman gut feeling. So Foxholder being a 'layman' I go with Foxholder's view.

Go with Foxholer or Uncle Tom Cobley 'n' all if you like. You have a funny attitude of pigeon holeing people with labels like 'Brexiteers' and suggesting they all have the exactly the same opinion, thats exactly the attitude of the political elite and why the referendum went the way it did.

 

[Foxholer]

Typical downbeat negatives to all things British. I guess Mr Kings opinion is questionable against yours.

Er....Where exactly did I specify I had a different opinion to Lord King? Surely (especially given the 'interesting' combination) you should be able to get his title right!

Nothing 'downbeat/negative' about it either - simply stating the main challenges for new starts. Existing exporting manufacturers are likely to benefit immediately as the necessary infrastructure is almost certainly in place. In fact, it's essential that this happens, otherwise the Balance of Payments deficit is likely to widen significantly. It may be advantageous, in duty/trade negotiations, to argue that we import more from the EU than we export, but that also means we are spending more than we are earning from trade too - in fact we have been doing so at a progressively increasing since 1998!

The consumer bubble IS liable to burst - at some stage, though the actual trigger is not necessarily predictable. That's what always happens with 'bubbles', though the effect is not always disastrous! I believe Brexit WILL be a contributory factor (simply because of its 'visibility'), though not necessarily the major one. To say, with certainty, that Brexit will not be a factor, in something that is somewhat speculative in the first place, is simply daft!

Your pigeon-holing of my newspaper reading is seriously awry btw!

Edit: @SiLH. You were probably influenced by SR. See my reference to Lord King's title! In his case (he's still actively analysing the economy), and that of Mark Carney, I'm more than happy to go with their judgement! While they are not infallible, and cannot predict every event that can affect the economy, they are independent and have the best available figures possible to go by! Their track record for accuracy and effectiveness has been pretty good, though there could well be a crunch point approaching in the next few months - as simply reducing interest rates becomes 'a bit awkward'!

... You have a funny attitude of pigeon holeing people with labels like 'Brexiteers' and suggesting they all have the exactly the same opinion, thats exactly the attitude of the political elite and why the referendum went the way it did.

Yeah, right! and you don't pigeon-hole folk at all, do you!

 

[Foxholer]

Good news? Or perhaps not!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37242804

Not sure that a rise of 1%, after such a fall, is really massive news though!

Interesting to see the headlines of references to 2 articles below 1 day apart below that report too

1. UK Manufacturing suffers lack of investment.....
2. UK Industrial Output grows strongly

Classic interpretation of the economy by different groups!

 

[Hacker Khan]

I guess the BBC are still taking EU Cash and have to keep agitating for a second referendum. They are becoming embarrassing now

If you bothered to read it they are reporting on an electoral reform society report that basically said the whole quality of debate was awful on both sides of the argument. To quote from said article

The Electoral Reform Society attacked both sides of the referendum campaign, saying people felt "ill-informed" by the "dire" debate.

It was not saying anything about having a second referendum, or even saying one side was worse than another. In fact I'd argue you'd struggle to find a more neutral approach to reporting of Brexit in media outlets, certainly in the print media. Again from both sides from The Guardian to The Daily Mail, they all were pushing a specific agenda.

 

[Hacker Khan]

Steady on old boy, where I live they have been embarrassing for quite a while.

Hacker. there was an interesting comparison between the two referendums from the commission.
They said that one was very enlightening and made a lasting political change and that the EU one which basically did the exact opposite. :lol:

Don't think you could argue with that. Not being Scottish I didn't have a huge amount of exposure to the run up and aftermath but from what I read it did engage people in a mostly good way and (mostly) dealt with facts and informed political discourse. Unfortunately in Brexit, as the report suggests, the level of debate was shocking. And now it seems Trump has cottoned on to this and is trying to copy that in his campaign.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/09/welsh-ukip-surge-has-labour-lost-valleys

Goodness me, the Welsh Labour voters are by passing the Tories and going hard core UKIP.
Whoever would have thunked that a few years ago.

I am cancelling my LLandudno holiday now.

 

[SocketRocket]

Er....Where exactly did I specify I had a different opinion to Lord King? Surely (especially given the 'interesting' combination) you should be able to get his title right!

Nothing 'downbeat/negative' about it either - simply stating the main challenges for new starts. Existing exporting manufacturers are likely to benefit immediately as the necessary infrastructure is almost certainly in place. In fact, it's essential that this happens, otherwise the Balance of Payments deficit is likely to widen significantly. It may be advantageous, in duty/trade negotiations, to argue that we import more from the EU than we export, but that also means we are spending more than we are earning from trade too - in fact we have been doing so at a progressively increasing since 1998!

The consumer bubble IS liable to burst - at some stage, though the actual trigger is not necessarily predictable. That's what always happens with 'bubbles', though the effect is not always disastrous! I believe Brexit WILL be a contributory factor (simply because of its 'visibility'), though not necessarily the major one. To say, with certainty, that Brexit will not be a factor, in something that is somewhat speculative in the first place, is simply daft!

Your pigeon-holing of my newspaper reading is seriously awry btw!

Edit: @SiLH. You were probably influenced by SR. See my reference to Lord King's title! In his case (he's still actively analysing the economy), and that of Mark Carney, I'm more than happy to go with their judgement! While they are not infallible, and cannot predict every event that can affect the economy, they are independent and have the best available figures possible to go by! Their track record for accuracy and effectiveness has been pretty good, though there could well be a crunch point approaching in the next few months - as simply reducing interest rates becomes 'a bit awkward'!





Yeah, right! and you don't pigeon-hole folk at all, do you!

You really are an oddball mate. You use nit picking balderdash to attack my posts due to your fixation with me, there must be some deep seated insecurity behind it but hey ho! whatever lights your bonfire.

Whether I refer to him as Mr King, Mrs King, Lord King or King of the Teds is nothing to do with the subject matter of this discussion, well not to me anyway but I guess you will cling to any trivial detail to use as a blunt instrument.

 

[SocketRocket]

Good news? Or perhaps not!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37242804

Not sure that a rise of 1%, after such a fall, is really massive news though!

Interesting to see the headlines of references to 2 articles below 1 day apart below that report too

1. UK Manufacturing suffers lack of investment.....
2. UK Industrial Output grows strongly

Classic interpretation of the economy by different groups!

Of course it's good news and flying in the face of Project Fear. It also shows that Carney and his Glum Factory were too hasty with their latest Easing and Interest Rate drop.

 

[harpo_72]

37% voted 52% of which wanted to leave ... Makes 19.2% of the population, that's a persuasive majority, wouldn't get a union on strike though.

Just saying.

 

[Blue in Munich]

37% voted 52% of which wanted to leave ... Makes 19.2% of the population, that's a persuasive majority, wouldn't get a union on strike though.

Just saying.

Rather more than the 17.8% that elected to stay though.

Any chance you could direct your anger those who couldn't be bothered to vote and are now whinging about their future rather than those who exercised their right to vote?

 

[SocketRocket]

37% voted 52% of which wanted to leave ... Makes 19.2% of the population, that's a persuasive majority, wouldn't get a union on strike though.

Just saying.

But the whole population cant vote. It was 72% of eligible voters which is huge.

 

[harpo_72]

Rather more than the 17.8% that elected to stay though.

Any chance you could direct your anger those who couldn't be bothered to vote and are now whinging about their future rather than those who exercised their right to vote?

Where is the anger?

 

[Blue in Munich]

Where is the anger?

"Let's put it bluntly those who voted leave were over the hill, and uneducated"

"The stats say Leave won, the stats say that the majority were X age group, and left school without having further education."

Just a couple of yours from this thread, but obviously no anger or resentment there……..

 

[SocketRocket]

Where is the anger?

Yoda says ' “Fear is the path to the dark side…fear leads to anger…anger leads to hate…hate leads to suffering.'

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Of course it's good news and flying in the face of Project Fear. It also shows that Carney and his Glum Factory were too hasty with their latest Easing and Interest Rate drop.

Hmmm - only two months and still in the EU, the main changes that will result from Brexit haven't yet started - the government cannot seem to agree their Brexit objectives (critically for the economy and everything else - whether or not we want to have full access to the single market - or whether that is subsidiary to freedom of movement - as it is totally delusional and disingenuous to assert that we can have both) and so just a bit early say that all is well and fears were unfounded. I hope all turns out well - whatever all is.

And I'd rather suggest that Carney knew what he was doing and why

 

[SocketRocket]

Hmmm - only two months and still in the EU, the main changes that will result from Brexit haven't yet started - the government cannot seem to agree their Brexit objectives (critically for the economy and everything else - whether or not we want to have full access to the single market - or whether that is subsidiary to freedom of movement - as it is totally delusional and disingenuous to assert that we can have both) and so just a bit early say that all is well and fears were unfounded. I hope all turns out well - whatever all is.

And I'd rather suggest that Carney knew what he was doing and why

You keep repeating the same flawed argument. You seem to think that we should already know the outcomes of the for-coming EU exit negotiations, how on earth can anyone know that? Of course we would like full access to the single market without free movement but thats up to what the EU will offer. If you read my earlier post I explained my personal preference for us to go in saying under no circumstances will we accept free movement and if they wish to apply import tariffs then we will revert to WTO rules. It would then be up to the EU to decide how much harm they wish to apply to both economies, with them probably suffering the most. We could then make a quick exit which will allow us to get on with the work in hand of resuming trade with the rest of the world.

I dont believe anyone is saying 'all is well' only being pleased when there is a bit of good news and happy that the predictions of a recession, large unemployment, plummeting house prices and being £4,300 worse off per household were untrue.

Regarding Carney; please explain what he has done is the right thing. There was no need to lower interest rates further and the money he is printing is doing nothing other than pushing gilts and corporate bond yields down which is bad news for pension funds.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

You keep repeating the same flawed argument. You seem to think that we should already know the outcomes of the for-coming EU exit negotiations, how on earth can anyone know that? Of course we would like full access to the single market without free movement but thats up to what the EU will offer. If you read my earlier post I explained my personal preference for us to go in saying under no circumstances will we accept free movement and if they wish to apply import tariffs then we will revert to WTO rules. It would then be up to the EU to decide how much harm they wish to apply to both economies, with them probably suffering the most. We could then make a quick exit which will allow us to get on with the work in hand of resuming trade with the rest of the world.

I dont believe anyone is saying 'all is well' only being pleased when there is a bit of good news and happy that the predictions of a recession, large unemployment, plummeting house prices and being £4,300 worse off per household were untrue.

Regarding Carney; please explain what he has done is the right thing. There was no need to lower interest rates further and the money he is printing is doing nothing other than pushing gilts and corporate bond yields down which is bad news for pension funds.

You may know what you want but you are not in government and the government doesn't seem to know.

I don't know that Carney has done the right thing - but I trust him rather than those saying he hasn't.

And as far as £4,300 worse off - time will tell. But I certainly am at the moment as house prices in my area have dropped (and we are thinking of moving) and that is rare - if not almost unheard of - we'll see how they respond over the coming months.