EU Referendum

[MarkE]

One for all the naysayers. Australia has already offered a free trade deal with the UK post brexit. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36818055

 

[Doon frae Troon]

One for all the naysayers. Australia has already offered a free trade deal with the UK post brexit. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36818055

Super.....Fosters larger price stays the same.
No idea what else we import from Oz other than it's people.

edit...........just remembered coal, our governments have closed the British pits and imported it from Oz.

 

[ColchesterFC]

Super.....Fosters larger price stays the same.
No idea what else we import from Oz other than it's people.

edit...........just remembered coal, our governments have closed the British pits and imported it from Oz.

Have you even bothered to check any facts before posting that?

Some facts for you about UK/Australia trade.....

1)Around 1000 UK companies are doing business in Australia and 1500 Australian companied active in the UK
2)Australia is the UK's 12th largest export market
3)In 2013 the UK exports of goods and services to Australia was just under 10 billion GBP
4)Exports to Australia include vehicles, medicines and pharmaceuticals, industrial machinery, clothing and food/drinks
5)Australia is the 8th largest source of foreign direct investment in the UK
6)From Australia we get software and media, wine, beef, diamonds, telecoms equipment, iron ore.
7)The UK is the 2nd most valuable market for Australian wine with 1 in 5 of imported bottles of wine consumed in the UK coming from Australia.

So not just Fosters, coal and their people then despite how you want to dismiss it from your usual everything about Brexit is bad stance. Wouldn't it be simpler for you just to come on each day and type "Brexit bad, EU good" and "Westminster bad, SNP good" as that covers just about everything you post.

 

[Foxholer]

If tariffs were applied to our exports then reciprocal tariffs would be applied to EU imports, that would be neither in the interests of the EU or the UK so I imagine every other option would be explored. Many other countries trade with the EU without contributing or accepting free movement of people. None of us know what the negotiations will achieve at this time so my optimism and your pessimism are only reflecting our wishes for the outcome.

On the contrary... If the EU did not apply tariffs - in the expectation that UK would do the same - it would negate the original reason for that organisation's establishment! So the reasons for other member states to resign/leave would be reduced and by a significant reason! I cannot envisage the EU allowing this, as it pretty much imperils its own existence!

Also remember that while trade with EU is around 45% for UK, trade with UK, by the EU, is only around 10%! While the value of the trade is in the EU's favour, the effect of any change significantly greater for the UK!

For the specifics of the Auto industry, this is a particularly important part of the UK economy. While it's unlikely that the likes of Rolls-Royce, Bentley or Mini (all UK icons owned by German companies) would leave UK, there are quite a few other UK, based German owned, plants and subsidiaries that contribute significantly to local and national economies that would likely suffer! And this doesn't include the other companies from non-EU countries who use UK as a 'gateway to Europe', the whole point of which would disappear!

Mind you, if it results in an FTA with Aus, we could see loads of Holdens and Ford Falcons on the roads! Probably more Mitsubishis too!

 

[SocketRocket]

On the contrary... If the EU did not apply tariffs - in the expectation that UK would do the same - it would negate the original reason for that organisation's establishment! So the reasons for other member states to resign/leave would be reduced and by a significant reason! I cannot envisage the EU allowing this, as it pretty much imperils its own existence!

Also remember that while trade with EU is around 45% for UK, trade with UK, by the EU, is only around 10%! While the value of the trade is in the EU's favour, the effect of any change significantly greater for the UK!

For the specifics of the Auto industry, this is a particularly important part of the UK economy. While it's unlikely that the likes of Rolls-Royce, Bentley or Mini (all UK icons owned by German companies) would leave UK, there are quite a few other UK, based German owned, plants and subsidiaries that contribute significantly to local and national economies that would likely suffer! And this doesn't include the other companies from non-EU countries who use UK as a 'gateway to Europe', the whole point of which would disappear!

Mind you, if it results in an FTA with Aus, we could see loads of Holdens and Ford Falcons on the roads! Probably more Mitsubishis too!

Thats a rather lazy way to look at it. The vast majority of trade with the EU is with a few countries so considering at 10% of the overall trade is not a true reflection on the impact with countries like Germany and France. Many countries have FTA with the EU so why would a UK FTA be any different.

 

[MarkE]

Super.....Fosters larger price stays the same.
No idea what else we import from Oz other than it's people.

edit...........just remembered coal, our governments have closed the British pits and imported it from Oz.

These are precisely the kind of deals we need prior to negotiating the eu exit. The more we have in place, the better for getting the best eu deal. Show them we will flourish without them and it's in their interest to keep us sweet.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Sorry to shatter an illusion but Fosters sold in the UK is manufactured in the UK.

 

[Foxholer]

Thats a rather lazy way to look at it. The vast majority of trade with the EU is with a few countries so considering at 10% of the overall trade is not a true reflection on the impact with countries like Germany and France. Many countries have FTA with the EU so why would a UK FTA be any different.

No more lazy (and probably less) than your simple statement that UK has a trade deficit with EU!

At around 2/3rds of the total deficit, Germany is the most affected country, but in terms of actual trade, UK - while a significant 'customer' - is only one of a group of 5 'significant' countries for German exports. And a less significant provider - thus the imbalance. This seems to imply that while Germany might be concerned about potential loss of trade - and that was definitely expressed - it would not be as significant for Germany as it would be for UK! Other, less affected, countries would likely consider EU principles - especially FoM - far more important!

Presumably, the imbalance means that UK doesn't produce anywhere as much that Germany wants as Germany produces that UK wants - something that, given roughly similar population/manufacturing bases imo, needs to be addressed with some urgency!

Btw. Here are the figures I've used. As normal, you've not backed up you statement with actual data. https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFig...anyTradingPartners.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

Anyway, all of this analysis/negotiation will be down to the department May has specifically set up to handle. I'm sure they will do a 'sterling' job, but expect them to encounter considerable opposition and a long and expensive negotiation period! There will certainly be considerable work involved, even before A50 is tabled!

 

[Old Skier]

Sorry to shatter an illusion but Fosters sold in the UK is manufactured in the UK.

Don't shatter his illusions, he still thinks Scotland can join the EU.

 

[SocketRocket]

No more lazy (and probably less) than your simple statement that UK has a trade deficit with EU!

At around 2/3rds of the total deficit, Germany is the most affected country, but in terms of actual trade, UK - while a significant 'customer' - is only one of a group of 5 'significant' countries for German exports. And a less significant provider - thus the imbalance. This seems to imply that while Germany might be concerned about potential loss of trade - and that was definitely expressed - it would not be as significant for Germany as it would be for UK! Other, less affected, countries would likely consider EU principles - especially FoM - far more important!

Presumably, the imbalance means that UK doesn't produce anywhere as much that Germany wants as Germany produces that UK wants - something that, given roughly similar population/manufacturing bases imo, needs to be addressed with some urgency!

Btw. Here are the figures I've used. As normal, you've not backed up you statement with actual data. https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFig...anyTradingPartners.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

I dont need to, your data shows quite clearly that the UK is Germany's second largest customer for exports in Europe. What we export to Germany isn't what will put the pressure on them to want a FTA, it's their exports to us. Germany sells us nothing we cant get from other countries, the same goes for France, Italy etc. Do you honestly believe they will want to restrict trade? You may consider my comment that having a trade deficit with the EU is to our advantage in negotiations as lazy but it's not, its simple and obvious and very relevant. I million cars is a damn lot of cars.

 

[Hobbit]

I dont need to, your data shows quite clearly that the UK is Germany's second largest customer for exports in Europe. What we export to Germany isn't what will put the pressure on them to want a FTA, it's their exports to us. Germany sells us nothing we cant get from other countries, the same goes for France, Italy etc. Do you honestly believe they will want to restrict trade? You may consider my comment that having a trade deficit with the EU is to our advantage in negotiations as lazy but it's not, its simple and obvious and very relevant. I million cars is a damn lot of cars.

Its £9 billion worth of cars from Germany! That's why German industrialists have been lobbying the EU and the German govt for a free trade deal.

 

[Foxholer]

...You may consider my comment that having a trade deficit with the EU is to our advantage in negotiations as lazy but it's not, its simple and obvious and very relevant...

You don't appear to have absorbed the first paragraph of my post! I suggest you re-read it!

You don't appear to have absorbed the 2nd paragraph either!

Btw. I'm hoping that a FTA will be happen, but am pessimistic about the likelihood of it happening - without FofM also being involved!

 

[Foxholer]

Super.....Fosters larger price stays the same.
No idea what else we import from Oz other than it's people.

edit...........just remembered coal, our governments have closed the British pits and imported it from Oz.

I suggest you delve - it doesn't take much - into the ownership of Fosters! It's certainly not Australian!

 

[Old Skier]

I suggest you delve - it doesn't take much - into the ownership of Fosters! It's certainly not Australian!

Awful stuff, no free trade deal required, ban it

 

[harpo_72]

The problem here and we keep hearing it is the word "hope" or some anticipation that we will get a deal.
I am sorry but hopes and expectations don't make reality and decisions based of them are usually worthless. Would you like to buy a car that hopefully starts or its airbags hopefully deploy under the legislated conditions...

 

[SocketRocket]

The problem here and we keep hearing it is the word "hope" or some anticipation that we will get a deal.
I am sorry but hopes and expectations don't make reality and decisions based of them are usually worthless. Would you like to buy a car that hopefully starts or its airbags hopefully deploy under the legislated conditions...

Well! we could adopt your philosophy of 'Give up HOPE, all ye that enter in' Is it not possible that you can see anything in Brexit that may turn out well? I think we all know the potential risks and benefits but your continual droning on about the negatives is now touching on the desperate, almost as if you want the country to fail.

 

[SocketRocket]

You don't appear to have absorbed the first paragraph of my post! I suggest you re-read it!

You don't appear to have absorbed the 2nd paragraph either!

Btw. I'm hoping that a FTA will be happen, but am pessimistic about the likelihood of it happening - without FofM also being involved!

I absorbed your message very well, by my reply it's evident I disagree with it.

The free movement of people cannot be agreed in it's current form, I think that will be a red line that has been well and truly drawn in the referendum. There may be some kind of fudge whereby anyone coming to the UK must already have a job and I think there will be a cut on benefits before four years or so contributions. If we were to piggyback the Canadian trade deal, which has recently been mentioned then that would stop free movement.

 

[larmen]

a red line that has been well and truly drawn in the referendum.

Well, the red line in the referendum, based on what 'we' got promised is no free movement, no financial contribution, and full access to the single market.
I guess it isn't really red, more orange, possibly a little bit towards yellow, or even green.

 

[harpo_72]

Well! we could adopt your philosophy of 'Give up HOPE, all ye that enter in' Is it not possible that you can see anything in Brexit that may turn out well? I think we all know the potential risks and benefits but your continual droning on about the negatives is now touching on the desperate, almost as if you want the country to fail.

And your utter disconnection with reality and misunderstanding of basic economics and trade have been evident throughout this thread. You struggle with facts and cannot cope with reality. Your hung up on immigration, which is not all European migrants... You have looked no further than what the daily mail has told you.

 

[SocketRocket]

And your utter disconnection with reality and misunderstanding of basic economics and trade have been evident throughout this thread. You struggle with facts and cannot cope with reality. Your hung up on immigration, which is not all European migrants... You have looked no further than what the daily mail has told you.

Thats a rather delusional post. I doubt if you have ever employed anyone or ran a business that operates internationally. Do you have any qualifications in business? I doubt if you have done any of these things but are just a frustrated guardian reader who thinks the state and your precious EU are responsible for keeping you in a security blanket. I have probably forgot more about business and economics than you know. Tool.