EU Referendum

[MarkE]

Except as soon as we agree trade or other deals with the EU then we will have to give away some control, sovereignty and independence to the EU as the UK is required to adhere to the rules and conditions for that trade as will be set out by the EU. And the same giving away of control will apply to every deal that we strike.

But hey - don't let that stop you from believing

I won't, I have faith in our abilities. Your pessimistic outlook shows no vision. We'll only have to give away control, sovereignty and independence to the eu if we pander to what they want. I prefer to believe we will strike trade deals that are much more beneficial to us with the rest of the world, as well as the eu that can only be better than what we have. The eu is doomed so the individual countries will be soon begging to trade with the UK.
You carry on looking on the gloomy side of everything, that's your prerogative but forgive me if I don't join you.:cheers:

 

[SocketRocket]

Except as soon as we agree trade or other deals with the EU then we will have to give away some control, sovereignty and independence to the EU as the UK is required to adhere to the rules and conditions for that trade as will be set out by the EU. And the same giving away of control will apply to every deal that we strike.

But hey - don't let that stop you from believing

How do you know that? discussions haven't started yet! Many countries trade with the EU without giving up control, sovereignty and independence. Can you imagine China, India, the USA, Brazil, Australia, New Zealand and so on giving up those things, why on earth do you think we should. Just because Norway did is not a template for other countries, Norway is a very small country and could not exist without the EU trade, they have little to trade around the world other than Oil which is not a very reliable income source. And how does giving up control apply to every deal we strike! Most countries aren't in the EU and don't apply their restrictive covenants.

But hey - You believe what you like.

 

[SocketRocket]

I agree with all of the above. My point about a GE fairly soon is simply because the whole context of UK government policy has changed with Brexit - every manifesto pledge will have to be revisited and adjusted or dumped accordingly. I don't want a GE; I know that to call one is not straightforward; and I know that it would probably be disastrous for Labour and would probably also weaken the SNP. I just don't know that the Tory government has any mandate for the policies it is going to have to put in place and follow now that we are leaving. If the Tory manifesto defined what Brexit would actually mean then that would be different - but I don't believe it did - other than in the very broadest terms.

You do understand that we have an act for fixed term parliaments, don't you? You only want a GE because you think that it's a chance to get rid of the conservatives and Brexit. Thats a bit desperate to say the least. Do you think the populous has the stomach for an election now with all the new rounds of politicising that would create. It wont happen and if it did it would be the final destruction of the Labour Party.

 

[drdel]

What is wrong with some of you?

A GE will demonstrate uncertainty to the external world and the Conservatives would be returned despite any major policy shocks in a new manifesto - so there's now't to gain.

All this emphasis on needing trade deals is a red herring. Businesses do business; its going on all the time. Politicians can help (a bit) and if the UK reduces corporation tax (which doesn't actually generate a large proportion of tax income) more trade will happen.

UK Banks are stable - most EU banks aren't and the politics in the EU members are a bit shaky.

The WTO rules apply and we are already trading with the relevant nations; the odd trade deal might improve/sweeten at the margins.

The waffle about being at the 'back of the queue' with the US is pure bunkum there is no queue; Boeing is a good example.

The UK is still the 6th largest economy and in a position of some power/influence and an attractive place to invest so why do we try and put ourselves down?

 

[Deleted member 15344]

In regards Boeing - they were always going to bring more business into the UK due to deals with the MOD over the past 20 years in regards both Aircraft and more recently logistics support across the whole of our Armed Forces ( they won the contract ) - Boeing made sure they got the best of the deal because of the roots already in place - it would have cost the MoD a damn sight more to go anywhere else but Boeing. Hopefully a lot of the guys who lost out when the Nimrod project went south will pick up the work now

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

You do understand that we have an act for fixed term parliaments, don't you? You only want a GE because you think that it's a chance to get rid of the conservatives and Brexit. Thats a bit desperate to say the least. Do you think the populous has the stomach for an election now with all the new rounds of politicising that would create. It wont happen and if it did it would be the final destruction of the Labour Party.

I DON'T want a GE - I just can't see what mandate the Tories actually have for the manifesto they were elected on. I think the Tories would scoot an election with Labour wiped and the SNP depleted.

 

[SocketRocket]

The FTSE 100 and 250 seem to have made very good progress this month. The GBP/USD rate was 1.32 today which again is a good upward move. OK, we are still in a settling down period but nice to see this happening. Well it is for me anyway.

 

[SocketRocket]

I DON'T want a GE - I just can't see what mandate the Tories actually have for the manifesto they were elected on. I think the Tories would scoot an election with Labour wiped and the SNP depleted.

Whats changed though, they said they would hold a referendum and they did, logic would suggest that a referendum would have an outcome that they would need to manage. The PM change is not related to a manifesto and just a party issue.

 

[MarkE]

All this emphasis on needing trade deals is a red herring. Businesses do business; its going on all the time. Politicians can help (a bit) and if the UK reduces corporation tax (which doesn't actually generate a large proportion of tax income) more trade will happen.

Spot on. France have already started complaining about the UK setting a lower corporation tax, as it will give us, in their eyes, an unfair advantage in attracting investment. They are already worrying the the UK will thrive to the rest of the eu's detriment.

 

[Hobbit]

Spot on. France have already started complaining about the UK setting a lower corporation tax, as it will give us, in their eyes, an unfair advantage in attracting investment. They are already worrying the the UK will thrive to the rest of the eu's detriment.

Even though setting the corporate rate the UK is only matching Ireland, another EU member state.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

That removes Ireland's big attraction though. I seem to remember the Irish had to increase corporation tax slightly as part of their bailout as it was annoying the hell out of other EU countries. Ireland will still have an advantage of being in the EU but it is weaker in geographical terms.

 

[harpo_72]

Early days yet, interesting comments coming from suppliers at work. They think the uk based factories will compete on a more level playing field to those in Eastern Europe. Not sure how though, unless there is cost cutting, a weak pound may help. But if we don't start building up our own internal supply base we won't be building in the UK.
Perhaps the suggestion that leave will be delayed for 6 years is also helping ....

 

[Old Skier]

Perhaps the suggestion that leave will be delayed for 6 years is also helping ....

Where's that come from?

 

[IanM]

Correct. GE is another variable and not needed. (previous Governments haven't called one when Party Leader changed.

Our Banks are now in decent shape. Several EU zone banks are on the point of failure.

Tories have outflanked Labour here with a quick resolution of the leadership situation and the removal of more "marmite" candidates like Boris/Gove! (Mind you Mrs May isn't everyone's cup of tea either) Meanwhile major in fighting between Labour MPs and Party Membership over leader is a right mess. Labour would get hammered in a GE now.

BUT ---when will Article 50 be kicked off? Or will it.

 

[Foxholer]

...
Our Banks are now in decent shape. Several EU zone banks are on the point of failure.
...

Not sure whether that's entirely correct!

HSBC seems to have been possibly 'assisted' with avoiding potential massive US fines - though it is supposedly well funded anyway - on the groundsof being 'too big to fail'!

Lloyds only just passed the stress tests conduced a year or 2 ago (perhaps ironically the ECB was involved in them too!). Apart from a couple (Santander and Deutsche) most of those that failed the stress tests - which doesn't mean they are on the point of failure btw! - are in the 'usual suspect' areas of Greece, Italy and Portugal.

Btw. Santander may well still have been rather affected by the deal that pushed RBS into needing government buyout, as it was involved - and had considerable exposure to Bernie Madoff's scheme though, $2Bn is pretty much small change in international banking!

 

[jdpjamesp]

So May to be PM, likely that Hammond will be Chancellor. Can't wait for the announcement of Foreign Secretary... :rofl:

Pinched from HIGNFY.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Grayling as Minister for Brexit? - would serve him right. Some years ago an Ex CEO of mine told a group of us at a lunch Q&A session that Grayling at the DWP was completely useless and a disaster - and that IDS seemed to be a breath of fresh air and quite capable. And that CEO had had a lot of direct personal dealings with Grayling, as the DWP are one of our main UK customers.

 

[IanM]

Guess I was talking about the industry in general terms compared rather your point about the "usual suspects!"

 

[harpo_72]

Boris foreign secretary... Oh dear ....

 

[Hobbit]

Boris foreign secretary... Oh dear ....

Double oh dear, with an oh dear on the side.