EU Referendum
- Thread starter Doon frae Troon
- Start date
Foxholer
Blackballed
Er....That's more like the 're-entry' model! And the quotes are because it's not meant to be re-entry, simply access!
However, I'm pessimistic about the likelihood of achieving access without considerable cost and very pessimistic bout the likelihood of achieving the 'control of immigration' that Leavers (or at least that campaign's leaders) were after!
The 'Norway model' requires a considerable contribution and still requires 'freedom of movement'! The Swiss 'model' is still a work in progress after 30+ years!
So the question then becomes...What does the UK do when the EU states 'no free access without Freedom of Movement' - a position I'm certain will be their starting point! Does it simply apply the WTO tariff rules? If so, that would require considerable expenditure from exporters, importers and the government to administer - avoiding such costs is one of the major reason to have free trade agreements!
And, of course, UK would still have to use EU standards/regulation for such exports!
All this without the ability to actually influence the regulation/law-makers in the first place!
A pretty weak negotiation imo!
Oohmeoldbacksknackered
Assistant Pro
But if you go in with that attitude you'll come out with nothing.
Go in strong and we can always move our stance.
Germany needs to sell us cars.
France wants to declare war.
Spain wants all the money from our tourists.
So we go in offering what they want as long as it's win/win
If we also go in with an outline of a deal with Korea for them to manufacture a 3 series substitute and who knows what we come out with.
Research, planning and cahunas.
All things lacking in our politicians.
Oohmeoldbacksknackered
Assistant Pro
Oh and as for immigration...All the Brexitiers have happily pointed out that they never promised an immediate drop in numbers, just that it would controlled under our sovereignty - not that of the EU. There are easy short term wins there.- we just start actively looking at non EU criteria and then agree a 5 year meaningless target with Merkel.
Pass me the meerkat
Pass me the meerkat
Foxholer
Blackballed
Perhaps you should return to the non-real world you seem to come from!
Or apply to be part of the negotiating team!
V
vkurup
Guest
I always love the 'go in strong'.. I agree with the philosophy.. but it needs to be grounded in reality too. The positioning that UK finds itself as described by you is indeed weak. Yes the continent wants us to buy their wines and cars. The most likely outcome
1) UK will get access to single market
2) We will need to comply with all EU trade related regulations in order to serve the markets. We will try and protect London's financial status.
3) UK will need to concede to free movement of people (sorry to burst that bubble, but there will be plenty of spin) similar to the Norway model
4) The compromise to free movement would be that the free movement will only be available to those in existing EU nations (Brexiters/Farage will claim that they stopped Turkey)
5) We may not have to follow all parts of EU regulations e.g. Human Rights? which ironically UK helped write
6) We will still have to pay EU a fee similar to Norway (Brexiters will claim victory that we no longer have to spend £350m). The money we saved will be spent in setting up the Ministry of Brexit.
7) We are unlikely to get the funding that EU currently hands out to UK to support deprived areas or Science/R&D. I agree we have a good scientific/R&D basis in the UK. This was provided by an nett surplus support of £300m each year.
The alternatives i.e. WTO and Swiss/Canada model are worse case scenarios for the UK at the moment. Before I am (again) touted as someone who keeps crying about doom then the Govt has some options too
1) Reduce Corporation tax to Ireland levels. Osborne has already fired the first missile on this one. The Irish finance minister has been quoted in the BBC that while UK can reduce Corporation tax, but unlike Ireland, they wont have access to the EU!!!
2) Plug the budgetary shortfall
a) increase income tax.
b) Cut spending further
c) Cut benefits
d) Increase VAT
Given that we are all Brexiteiers now and in this together, so a,b,c,d should be a breeze.
3) Cut interest rates to help boost consumption and/or reduce mortgage payments
4) Further quant easing, but run the risk of sterling devaluing
5) Raise anti-dumping on everyone - Chinese steel, Indian IT workers, Brazilian coffee etc.
6) Reduce minimum wage thresholds, income tax slabs, sell more of British gold
The list is endless.. so not really doom and gloom everywhere..
Oohmeoldbacksknackered
Assistant Pro
I didn't say that is the result we'll get but the principle is simple.Perhaps you should return to the non-real world you seem to come from!
Or apply to be part of the negotiating team!
We're selling the UK so we have to find what they want. Then we use it to get the best deal on what we want. Those examples I gave came after at least 3 seconds thinking. If you gave me a whole team of civil servants and access to all the conversations that Cameron has had since he became PM I could do even better. And so could Cameron himself if he'd get off his backside and do some work.
Many members of the EU quite like having us around. I assume some of them even like him. Without us the single market isn't the largest in the world. Another conversation to be had.
You don't need an idiot like me but you do need someone with enthusiasm and empathy to talk to them, actively listen and then work out what both sides want. Then you get the intelligent people like vkurup to sort out the details.
As with any sale. The first thing you have to do is pick up the phone.
Foxholer
Blackballed
I'm inclined to agree with your reasoning, but not your options - or at least not all/many of them! Eg, It's pretty difficult to 'lower interest rates' from their current position without going negative! Boosting consumption - especially of 'foreign goods' would likely cause more problems than it would solve - as the deficit would increase by that amount! Increased cost of imports, that a lower value pound has generated, is likely to reduce consumption/deficit - provided there are home-grown products that are alternatives. QE may be a good policy short term, but has huge inflationary risk if used long-term!
Better to negotiate restriction of 'freedom of movement' immigration even further imo - by country would be ideal - though the practicality and likelihood of success of that approach is pretty low! Simply applying the current non-EU points-based system with a 'bonus for EU members' might be an approach but FofM is so basic to EU's approach that I doubt whether it would be acceptable.
Btw. You still seem to be under the illusion that ECHR legislation (that UK helped to write) is an EU piece! It is not! While the EU refers to it in its own version (now there's an example of where I think the EU is wrong and daft!) it is NOT EU controlled. Accession of EU to ECHR is an ongoing issue! ECJ 'rejected' it, but there are move to make it acceptable to that body. Compliance to ECHR rulings is still required as part of the Lisbon Treaty though.
Oohmeoldbacksknackered
Assistant Pro
I believe that Cameron would have been happy with your points 1-4 after his pre-referendum negotiations.
I see no reason why the EU wouldn't leap at them now.
There's definitely a deal to be done.
There's no will anywhere in parliament for anything other than the slightest evolutionary change they can get away with.
Foxholer
Blackballed
Hacker Khan
Yurt Dwelling, Yoghurt Knitter
Will we get duty free back?? Surely that is a good thing as everyone loves a couple of quid off some Pagan Man aftershave and a bottle of Liebfraumilch.
I'm surprised Mark Carney has not bigged that one up whilst wearing a squirty bow tie and clown wig, spreading some positive happy vibes.
I'm surprised Mark Carney has not bigged that one up whilst wearing a squirty bow tie and clown wig, spreading some positive happy vibes.
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V
vkurup
Guest
I dont agree with all the options either!! but they are options neverthless and some of them have either short or medium term ramification e.g. inflation, devaluation, impact on bond market, joblessness. I think the market has already started baking in an interest rate cut. While this will take it into negative territory, it is not unknown for central banks to do that - though this will can result in asset inflation. The only reality is that there is no silver bullet out of the mess - assuming that the Parliament/PM rubber stamps the referendum.
As part of the conspiracy theroy that Brexiters may be hoping for is that a couple of Euopean banks fail - Italian (maybe) or Deutche (highly unlikely). If anyone of them fail and EU has to dig deep into their pockets that would give us a get out of jail and let Barage to get on his soap box and proclaim why he was right all along. All banks have a exposure to GBP and some have exposure to UK property market, so asset books have taken a beating. Equally Carney has reduced the capital requirements for UK bank, so in theory they are also riskier.
I am not close enough to comment on the ECHR, but things like those may be part of negotiations - but I am clutching at straws. The reality and I think we both agree on is that we dont have much to bargain. So a weak position may become slightly better if the other side gets on a bit of a slippery wicket e.g. an EU financial crisis.
finally, someone mentioned that Spain needs our tourist. True, but those tourists may need to pack some extra GBP as well as apply for a schengen visa before travelling bringing them on par with other non-EU citizens like middle east, Africa or China
Oohmeoldbacksknackered
Assistant Pro
It's good to be appreciated😘Doesn't surprise me!
ger147
Tour Winner
Maybe we need a cunning plan...
Oohmeoldbacksknackered
Assistant Pro
The question is, what situation suits Spain better- free movement or visas? What suits us best?
So if free movement suits both countries it's going to be a pretty poor negotiation for us both to lose.
So why would anyone put that on the table at this point?
Oversimplification maybe, but let's not go too far the other way and put obstacles where there may not be any.
Foxholer
Blackballed
Carney seems to be putting his delegation skills into practice today!
He's currently in the Royal Box at Wimbledon watching one of UK's better sporting assets perform!
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
Whether people need a visa on holiday is a minor point, visa waver systems can be a simple internet registration like the USA has used with certain countries, they normally last around five years before you must renew them.
Since our best deal would be tariff free trade with the EU and that would be their best option with us then to start off negotiations with that would be sensible.
The next big issue is the free movement of people, this is something that the referendum showed to be unacceptable to the UK so an initial stance of saying it's something we cannot accept is a good starting point. To suggest it's not attainable so we shouldn't ask for is using Cameron's tactics in his recent negotiations which were a disaster. I think the EU although making noises about their founding principles are also starting to understand that a number of countries have a populous that are unhappy with this and it may well create further unrest and dissatisfaction. Many countries have trade agreements and are negotiating agreements with the EU for free trade but don't have to accept free movement, I don't see why we should be in a different position just because we have left the club.
Since our best deal would be tariff free trade with the EU and that would be their best option with us then to start off negotiations with that would be sensible.
The next big issue is the free movement of people, this is something that the referendum showed to be unacceptable to the UK so an initial stance of saying it's something we cannot accept is a good starting point. To suggest it's not attainable so we shouldn't ask for is using Cameron's tactics in his recent negotiations which were a disaster. I think the EU although making noises about their founding principles are also starting to understand that a number of countries have a populous that are unhappy with this and it may well create further unrest and dissatisfaction. Many countries have trade agreements and are negotiating agreements with the EU for free trade but don't have to accept free movement, I don't see why we should be in a different position just because we have left the club.
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
The contributions Norway pay into the EU is often used to say we would have all the costs but no representation. Most of Norway's contributions to the EU are voluntary such as grants to a number of Eastern European countries to help raise their social and economic situations. They contribute voluntarily towards certain research projects and pay into the EU fund used to regulate a few projects like the Shengin area. They control their own Fishery and Agriculture.
Foxholer
Blackballed
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-what-is-it-and-what-does-it-mean-for-britain
As for the cost, here's the relevant extract from that article!
Is the Norway option cheaper?
Yes, but not by much. In 2012, Norway was paying €340m (£245m) a year into the EU budget – the tenth-highest contributor. The thinktank Open Europe estimates that the UK would pay 94% of its current costs (£31.4bn annually) if it left the EU but adopted a Norway-type arrangement.
The above actually excludes the grants that Socket referred to above - which are indeed substantial, but voluntary!
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:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :thup:
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