EU Referendum

[SocketRocket]

The UK’s trade deficit with the European Union in goods has widened to its largest level on record according to figures from the ONS.

Never mind Benefit Brakes and Red flags this lame duck needs us more than we need them.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I was referring to his vested interest in being a member of the Gravy Train rather than the rather obvious points you mentioned.

So anyone who works for any institution with a European aspect has a 'vested interest' (lining their own pockets) and so is not to be trusted to give a fair and objective view of the benefits or otherwise of being in the EU. That seems incredibly cynical but perhaps typical of the sort of response the Brexit Crew come out with when they hear something that may be positive for the EU STAY campaign. But there you go.

 

[Foxholer]

The UK’s trade deficit with the European Union in goods has widened to its largest level on record according to figures from the ONS.

Never mind Benefit Brakes and Red flags this lame duck needs us more than we need them.

Ah! Another of the Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics selective stats cases!

EU still accounts for (2014 figures) for 44.6% of exports and 53.2% of imports. A rather dominant trading partner and, I would suggest, one to be threatened only after careful consideration!

Of course, the figures for Exports also include the values provided by the multi-nationals like Nissan, Honda and other vehicle manufacturers, for example, who use UK as their foothold into Europe and would quite likely use another EU country if UK withdrew! 80% of vehicles manufactured in UK are exported so this alone rather distorts trade figures - let alone the other less obvious manufacturing concerns (Chemicals, Technology etc).

Oh and the EU would, I believe, have no qualms about ditching London as a Financial centre, probably using Frankfurt instead. That alone contributes some 38.3 Bn to the (overall) surplus! And if insurance and pensions is included, that's another 20.9 Bn of the 78.9Bn Services surplus! Definitely something that should be 'protected'!

If those 2 sectors (Vehicle Manufacturing and Financial Services) are shrunk, there'd also be a considerable cost to UK in terms of jobs - as both employ very high numbers!

Of course, all this is mere speculation. I'd be interested to see an independent study of the effects of the various scenarios.

I do, however. suspect that a withdrawal from EU would merely be a(nother) step from UK being the/a major power/Empire towards insignificance! With so much concern within EU about refugees, as opposed to economic migrants, I believe now is the time to establish some 'better' rules that would placate the 'immigration extremists' while maintaining UK's current position/role!

 

[Foxholer]

So anyone who works for any institution with a European aspect has a 'vested interest' (lining their own pockets) and so is not to be trusted to give a fair and objective view of the benefits or otherwise of being in the EU. That seems incredibly cynical but perhaps typical of the sort of response the Brexit Crew come out with when they hear something that may be positive for the EU STAY campaign. But there you go.

While Socket's point may have a degree of relevance - there appear to be a number of bodies where the 'gravy train' accusation could be applied (UKIP, and others, MEP costs/expenses for example) - would anyone similarly challenge the equivalent views of the heads of Interpol or NATO?

It's good to see that one of the topics of agreement is the proposal to address some of that 'too much civil service' area! One of my favourite bumper stickers was one stating 'Lower Taxes by Less Government'!

 

[ColchesterFC]

EU still accounts for (2014 figures) for 44.6% of exports and 53.2% of imports. A rather dominant trading partner and, I would suggest, one to be threatened only after careful consideration!

Of course, the figures for Exports also include the values provided by the multi-nationals like Nissan, Honda and other vehicle manufacturers, for example, who use UK as their foothold into Europe and would quite likely use another EU country if UK withdrew! 80% of vehicles manufactured in UK are exported so this alone rather distorts trade figures - let alone the other less obvious manufacturing concerns (Chemicals, Technology etc).

Does this mean that if we left the EU and the car manufacturers left we would be exporting less to Europe (as the car exports would be taken out of the figures) and importing more from them (as we would then be importing the cars to sell here)?

If that is correct then surely it is even more in the interests of the EU to continue trading with the UK as the difference between exports and imports would be even more in their favour.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

A majority of Scots would back independence if the UK votes to leave the European Union (EU), a new poll has found.

The Ipsos MORI for STV News poll suggests Brexit would increase support for a Yes vote in the event of a second independence referendum.

It found Scots are strongly in favour of remaining in the EU, with 62% stating they would vote to remain, 26% who would vote to leave and 12% who are not sure.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...back_independence_if_UK_exits_EU/?ref=mr&lp=4

Paradoxical is it not, that those who proclaim loudest for a United Kingdom - one independent from Europe - are most likely, if their wish to LEAVE comes to pass, be responsible for the break up of said United Kingdom. A United Kingdom that - if the polls are to believed - is quite DisUnited in it's view on EU LEAVE/STAY.

 

[ColchesterFC]

Do you think that those that were strongly in favour of Scottish independence will be voting to leave the EU as a means to achieving their desired outcome?

 

[SocketRocket]

Ah! Another of the Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics selective stats cases!

EU still accounts for (2014 figures) for 44.6% of exports and 53.2% of imports. A rather dominant trading partner and, I would suggest, one to be threatened only after careful consideration!

Of course, the figures for Exports also include the values provided by the multi-nationals like Nissan, Honda and other vehicle manufacturers, for example, who use UK as their foothold into Europe and would quite likely use another EU country if UK withdrew! 80% of vehicles manufactured in UK are exported so this alone rather distorts trade figures - let alone the other less obvious manufacturing concerns (Chemicals, Technology etc).

Oh and the EU would, I believe, have no qualms about ditching London as a Financial centre, probably using Frankfurt instead. That alone contributes some 38.3 Bn to the (overall) surplus! And if insurance and pensions is included, that's another 20.9 Bn of the 78.9Bn Services surplus! Definitely something that should be 'protected'!

If those 2 sectors (Vehicle Manufacturing and Financial Services) are shrunk, there'd also be a considerable cost to UK in terms of jobs - as both employ very high numbers!

Of course, all this is mere speculation. I'd be interested to see an independent study of the effects of the various scenarios.

I do, however. suspect that a withdrawal from EU would merely be a(nother) step from UK being the/a major power/Empire towards insignificance! With so much concern within EU about refugees, as opposed to economic migrants, I believe now is the time to establish some 'better' rules that would placate the 'immigration extremists' while maintaining UK's current position/role!

Do you deny the ONS trade figures being correct?

Does anyone actually believe that we would lose our exports to the EU if we left or that they would wish to export less to us? I cant imagine any way that our trade would be threatened if we left.

The Foreign owned car manufacturers in the UK could of course move production to other EU countries but would they want to do that? Surely that would depend largely on what sort of trade agreement would be put in place following Brexit and there would be one. These manufacturers would not do that without some massive costs and disruption, my opinion is that it would be very unlikely.

Why do you think that financial services would change, what difference would it make if the UK was out the EU? and are you suggesting countries would change due to some kind of revenge or spite! Really!

Britain's position of 'Power' and 'Influence' in the World has no or little relevance to it being a member of the EU in my opinion. In fact I would say it is watered down by us being a part of the big-bland security blanket that cannot find political solutions to anything much (Well, except to the shape and form of bananas) What a breath of fresh air it would be to once again have true Sovereignty over our affairs.

Regarding immigration/migration I think the current situation in the EU will be a major deciding factor for many in the referendum and will play a bigger part in peoples considerations than factors like the economy or temporary/tapered brakes on EU migrant workers benefits.

 

[SocketRocket]

A majority of Scots would back independence if the UK votes to leave the European Union (EU), a new poll has found.

The Ipsos MORI for STV News poll suggests Brexit would increase support for a Yes vote in the event of a second independence referendum.

It found Scots are strongly in favour of remaining in the EU, with 62% stating they would vote to remain, 26% who would vote to leave and 12% who are not sure.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...back_independence_if_UK_exits_EU/?ref=mr&lp=4

Paradoxical is it not, that those who proclaim loudest for a United Kingdom - one independent from Europe - are most likely, if their wish to LEAVE comes to pass, be responsible for the break up of said United Kingdom. A United Kingdom that - if the polls are to believed - is quite DisUnited in it's view on EU LEAVE/STAY.

The Scots voted to stay in the UK.

The Scots will get a proportional say in the Stay/Leave EU referendum.

There is no reason why the UK would allow another Scottish Independence election in the foreseeable future, even with a Brexit.

 

[Hobbit]

The Foreign owned car manufacturers in the UK could of course move production to other EU countries but would they want to do that? Surely that would depend largely on what sort of trade agreement would be put in place following Brexit and there would be one. These manufacturers would not do that without some massive costs and disruption, my opinion is that it would be very unlikely.

Regarding immigration/migration I think the current situation in the EU will be a major deciding factor for many in the referendum and will play a bigger part in peoples considerations than factors like the economy or temporary/tapered brakes on EU migrant workers benefits.

Some EU manufacturers are already moving manufacturing from the original home country to EU countries where labour is cheaper.

I don't think immigration issues will play any greater part than they already do, other than DC is using it as a scare tactic.

 

[Foxholer]

Does this mean that if we left the EU and the car manufacturers left we would be exporting less to Europe (as the car exports would be taken out of the figures) and importing more from them (as we would then be importing the cars to sell here)?

Yes it would!

If that is correct then surely it is even more in the interests of the EU to continue trading with the UK as the difference between exports and imports would be even more in their favour.

That's what I meant by my Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics comment!

Of course the EU would - and will - continue to trade with UK. And UK consumers will still demand the goods that would be manufactured somewhere other than UK!

If nothing else changed in that example, UK would merely have lost 10s of thousands of jobs, a huge amount of GDP and Tax Revenue, and the goods would almost certainly cost more! But the Trade Deficit would be larger still! In fact, what it really demonstrates is that the Trade Deficit is a 'nothing' metric for this sort of comparison!

 

[Foxholer]

Do you deny the ONS trade figures being correct?

Where do you think the 44.6% and 53.2% figures came from !!

 

[SocketRocket]

Where do you think the 44.6% and 53.2% figures came from !!

You said:

"Ah! Another of the Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics selective stats cases!"

Which to me indicates my comment on the current trade gap with the EU widening is incorrect"

If thats not what you meant then I apologise but thats the way it reads to me.

 

[Foxholer]

You said:

"Ah! Another of the Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics selective stats cases!"

Which to me indicates my comment on the current trade gap with the EU widening is incorrect"

If thats not what you meant then I apologise but thats the way it reads to me.

Not incorrect, merely selective/interpretive! See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics

Apology accepted, though I'm not sure one was needed.

 

[delc]

I suspect that the remaining EU countries will make life difficult for us if we leave. I shall be voting to stay in, come what may. I feel fairly European anyway. Why is the EU being portrayed by the Daily Mail and right wing Torues as being undemocratic, when it has an elected parliament?

 

[MegaSteve]

Perhaps Mr Cameron can ask the EU folk if we can skip a payment, for one day, so we can give 'our' kids their school meal back...

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...-fund-worth-£32-million/ar-BBpjO63?li=BBoPWjQ

 

[ColchesterFC]

I suspect that the remaining EU countries will make life difficult for us if we leave. I shall be voting to stay in, come what may. I feel fairly European anyway. Why is the EU being portrayed by the Daily Mail and right wing Torues as being undemocratic, when it has an elected parliament?

So you obviously feel that for you the benefits of being in the EU outweigh the negatives. What are the benefits you see and what, if any, negatives?

That question is open to all those that will be voting to stay in, not just Delc.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

The Scots voted to stay in the UK.

The Scots will get a proportional say in the Stay/Leave EU referendum.

There is no reason why the UK would allow another Scottish Independence election in the foreseeable future, even with a Brexit.

Which is just the sort of statement that many Scots would consider extremely arrogant and likely to increase the demand for another referendum - do you not understand anything about the way many Scots think when they hear statements such as this coming from Westminster, Cameron or any points south of the border?

 

[SocketRocket]

Which is just the sort of statement that many Scots would consider extremely arrogant and likely to increase the demand for another referendum - do you not understand anything about the way many Scots think when they hear statements such as this coming from Westminster, Cameron or any points south of the border?

Scots had their vote and that put an end to independence.
They will get their vote in the eu referendum just like the rest of us. They are part of the UK, not something special.

Get over it for Peter sake (not sure who Pete is though)

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Which is just the sort of statement that many Scots would consider extremely arrogant and likely to increase the demand for another referendum - do you not understand anything about the way many Scots think when they hear statements such as this coming from Westminster, Cameron or any points south of the border?

You had your vote on independence and they said NO - just to repeat again - they said NO

Scotland is part of the U.K. And will be for the foreseeable future. End of