EU Referendum

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Er...Nice effect of the 'made up numbers'! And you comment on my 'use of statistics'!

The actual 'effect for the EU' will be the same value as the' effect for the UK' plus the 'amount of the EU-UK trade surplus/deficit'!

They may (or may not) be losers, but their loss is likely to be less of a concern (given their far greater size) than the likely loss of sales are to UK!

Nobody is suggesting that UK-EU trade will not happen! Just that it will be more expensive, so reduce! And that particular trade, while important to both sides, is more important to UK than it is to the EU!

It's OK - Gove thinks we need not worry that much about trading in the single market - being external to the single market is fine

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/ft-he...t-after-vote-to-leave-eu-gove-admits-cm617956

And of course we'll be building new trading links with rest of the world - I guess that's the USA and BRIC countries. That'll be 'America First' USA and Brazil (bust), Russia (hmm), India (existing major commonwealth trading partner) and China (not so hot these days)

 

[SocketRocket]

It's OK - Gove thinks we need not worry that much about trading in the single market - being external to the single market is fine

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/ft-he...t-after-vote-to-leave-eu-gove-admits-cm617956


And of course we'll be building new trading links with rest of the world - I guess that's the USA and BRIC countries. That'll be 'America First' USA and Brazil (bust), Russia (hmm), India (existing major commonwealth trading partner) and China (not so hot these days)

Go to post 2025 and watch the video. There is an academic on economics explaining why leaving the EU and opening up trade would be very good for the UK. He debunks a lot of myths being put out on how our economy would be put in danger. After looking at it come back and make an argument based on what he says.

Britain is a global trading power and exports more to the rest of the world than it does to Europe.
Britain has the world’s 6th largest economy and is set to become the largest in Europe by 2035.
The EU’s share of world GDP is in terminal decline. In 1980, the EU’s world share of GDP was 26%. It is now just 20%, and will have fallen to 15% by 2020.

 

[Hobbit]

It's OK - Gove thinks we need not worry that much about trading in the single market - being external to the single market is fine

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/ft-he...t-after-vote-to-leave-eu-gove-admits-cm617956

And of course we'll be building new trading links with rest of the world - I guess that's the USA and BRIC countries. That'll be 'America First' USA and Brazil (bust), Russia (hmm), India (existing major commonwealth trading partner) and China (not so hot these days)

I posted earlier in this thread the govt's figures for the countries we trade with. Before lapping up the propaganda you need to do some of your own research.

 

[Foxholer]

...

Britain is a global trading power and exports more to the rest of the world than it does to Europe.
Britain has the world’s 6th largest economy and is set to become the largest in Europe by 2035.
The EU’s share of world GDP is in terminal decline. In 1980, the EU’s world share of GDP was 26%. It is now just 20%, and will have fallen to 15% by 2020.

Seems to me this is actually an argument for keeping the status quo - ie Remain!

Britain has (supposedly, as there is no reference to data) done, or will do, all this while a member of the 'failing' EU!

 

[ColchesterFC]

Seems to me this is actually an argument for keeping the status quo - ie Remain!

Britain has (supposedly, as there is no reference to data) done, or will do, all this while a member of the 'failing' EU!

Absolutely, but the Leave argument is that we could do so much better if we weren't hogtied by EU regulations.

 

[SocketRocket]

Seems to me this is actually an argument for keeping the status quo - ie Remain!

Britain has (supposedly, as there is no reference to data) done, or will do, all this while a member of the 'failing' EU!

Absolutely not. Britain is currently forced to pay prices well above World prices due to EU protectionism. If we were free from the EU we could trade without tariff at lower prices which would benefit our trade and wealth. We should not apply tariffs to any of our goods which would make them more competitive on the world market. If the EU then decided to apply export tariffs it would make their products less competitive to us. We may find that the EU and a few other countries would like a trade agreement with us and we could negotiate something mutually beneficial. No brainer really.

 

[vkurup]

While this thread is interesting and now well over 2K posts.. Should this be locked..

Reading thru the argument and counter argument, it is clear that not a single soul on the forum is going to switch sides. So why not do something more productive like HNSP or how to correctly place rake in a bunker or if women should be allowed into clubs...

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Scotland, Wales and NI's rural areas heavily depend on EU subsidies for farming, [arguably] fishing and development.
Both farming and fishing are devolved matters in the UK, if we leave the EU do you think the UK government will support the lost EU subsidy?

I think not.
Building bigger cities and daft rail/air links seem to be much higher on the agenda, after all the cities are where all the voters live.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Seems to me this is actually an argument for keeping the status quo - ie Remain!

Britain has (supposedly, as there is no reference to data) done, or will do, all this while a member of the 'failing' EU!

Indeed - it does seem that Brexit tend to gloss over the fact that our strengths (and weaknesses) today have been built up over a period of 40 years in the context of UK being in the EU. Of course we'll never know whether UK might have been better or wore off had the last 40yrs in the EU never happened. But the UK is a relatively strong economy today, and we have been in the EU, and it is on that EU-based economic strength that Brexit seem to build much of their case.

And so the claim

Absolutely, but the Leave argument is that we could do so much better if we weren't hogtied by EU regulations.

has no basis. It could be true - were UK not subject to any EU regulations - but I just can't see that being the case. And the UK would have to bring in it's own to replace many of those it dumped - and it would. I just don't see the 'less regulation' argument actually coming to pass - and even if it does I don't think there would be that much 'red-tape' - the difference would not make much of a difference.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

While this thread is interesting and now well over 2K posts.. Should this be locked..

Reading thru the argument and counter argument, it is clear that not a single soul on the forum is going to switch sides. So why not do something more productive like HNSP or how to correctly place rake in a bunker or if women should be allowed into clubs...

Absolutely - my playing partner on a 'freebie' day out on Tuesday clearly had no idea of the HNSP and I had to ask him to move on a couple of occasions - from standing right being me on my line. Tsk!

Anyway - back to the EU.

 

[vkurup]

Go to post 2025 and watch the video. There is an academic on economics explaining why leaving the EU and opening up trade would be very good for the UK. He debunks a lot of myths being put out on how our economy would be put in danger. After looking at it come back and make an argument based on what he says.

Britain is a global trading power and exports more to the rest of the world than it does to Europe.
Britain has the world’s 6th largest economy and is set to become the largest in Europe by 2035.
The EU’s share of world GDP is in terminal decline. In 1980, the EU’s world share of GDP was 26%. It is now just 20%, and will have fallen to 15% by 2020.

True Britain has a global status. One of the pillars of that (and mainly contributing to inward trade) is it unique position of bridge into Europe, a stable economy, a stable govt and strong legal system. You take Britain's bridging position out of play then that inward trade will move elsewhere. Similar story with Hong Kong and China. Why do companies that want to trade with China go thru HK rather an China direct.

Over 75% of the economy is services economy and financial services makes a big part of it. As compared to a manufacturing facility, it is lot easier to move financial services operations out of UK in case of a Brexit. Similar story when some of the firms and banks announced plans to move south of the border in case of a Scottish referendum.

The British economy as a whole is the 5th largest, but with another scottish referendum, it will grow smaller.

True the EU share of the world trade has gone down (but not in terminal decline). However that masks the the fact that the EU has grown bigger at the same time by including smaller economies. So the average is bound to come down. Also this referendum is not about 'joining' the EU and therefore diluting our current position, but about staying in and getting stronger

There are rational figures that can poke holes in either side, but this thread wont swing any votes..

 

[USER1999]

Obviously adding Keira Knightly to the remain campaign has totally changed my view on the situation.

She is clearly a very astute and knowledgeable person.

Or an actress or something.

 

[Crazyface]

You can argue all day and night on this but the vote will go with the remain fools. People fear change.

 

[Foxholer]

Absolutely not. Britain is currently forced to pay prices well above World prices due to EU protectionism. If we were free from the EU we could trade without tariff at lower prices which would benefit our trade and wealth. We should not apply tariffs to any of our goods which would make them more competitive on the world market. If the EU then decided to apply export tariffs it would make their products less competitive to us. We may find that the EU and a few other countries would like a trade agreement with us and we could negotiate something mutually beneficial. No brainer really.

Some concrete examples please! EU Has many Free/Preferential Trade Agreements either already in place or is currently negotiating them. http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/agreements/index_en.htm#_europe

In fact, SE/Australasia and most of the Soviet areas apart, pretty much the entire world is covered!

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149622.png

And without references for your figures in the earlier post (#2042), I'm inclined to think they were simply manufactured!

Here's another paper (from 2014, but still relevant) I came across that, while 'pro-European but not uncritical', seems to answer the economy queries pretty well! https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/defaul...nts/pdf/2014/pb_britishtrade_16jan14-8285.pdf

 

[jp5]

The British economy as a whole is the 5th largest, but with another scottish referendum, it will grow smaller.

Taking out Scotland, we'd still be the 5th largest economy - just by a slightly smaller margin! Though that vote's another 50 years in the future.

The status quo voters will swing it. In a vote to leave, remain will win. In a hypothetical vote to join, staying out would win.

 

[MegaSteve]

You can argue all day and night on this but the vote will go with the remain fools. People fear change.

Unless it's a truely landslide vote to exit Cameron and cronies will be keeping us in one way or another...

 

[Foxholer]

The UK economy isn't all rosy!

UK industry is actually 'in recession'! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36266178

And it seems that having a Trade Deficit (as UK has with the EU) isn't such a good thing either! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36256358

 

[Deleted Member 1156]

Scotland, Wales and NI's rural areas heavily depend on EU subsidies for farming, [arguably] fishing and development.
Both farming and fishing are devolved matters in the UK, if we leave the EU do you think the UK government will support the lost EU subsidy?

I think not.
Building bigger cities and daft rail/air links seem to be much higher on the agenda, after all the cities are where all the voters live.

Well those voters still have to eat so if we can subsidise and produce food cheaper than importing it then why not carry on with the subsidy?

 

[Doon frae Troon]

You can argue all day and night on this but the vote will go with the remain fools. People fear change.

I think you are right.
That is what happened in Scotland, many undecided's voted for no change at the last minute.
The devil you know etc.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Well those voters still have to eat so if we can subsidise and produce food cheaper than importing it then why not carry on with the subsidy?

Good luck with your Chinese Whiskey, Vietnamese fish and Egyptian potatoes then