D
Deleted member 18645
Guest
I think the last couple of pages have identified two of Alastair Campbell's fake IDs.
EU elections
- Thread starter Tashyboy
- Start date
PhilTheFragger
Provider of Entertainment for the Golfing Gods 🙄
Why can’t you? What’s not to say that a number of ardent Tory and Labour voters want No Deal but would never vote for anyone apart from the party they’ve voted for all their lives?
You may be right but unless you have a crystal ball you are guilty of interpreting the figures based on assumptions.
larmen
Head Pro
Because Labour ‘campaigned’ on no Brexit without deal platform. They are out.
Conservatives you might as well count. While they all promoted an easy deal during the referendum the ones speaking since Sunday celebrated Farage like they won the election themselves.
First you said you can’t count the Tories, and now you’re saying you can.... you are guessing - making assumptions. As I said in the previous post, you don’t know for certain.
larmen
Head Pro
Nobody does, do they? Makes the mandate very clear, doesn’t it?
chrisd
Major Champion
Add to that - all long standing political parties have a number of voters who'd never change allegiance no matter what they stood for "my dad voted xxxxxxx all his life and so will i" types. So Liberals, Greens, labour and Conservatives will have all picked up votes that will have had no bearing on policies
Doon frae Troon
Ryder Cup Winner
If you say 'Brexit got a lot more than the other parties' on that chart you need to visit Specsavers
They were miles behind the SNP.
Brexit were also only 0.8% ahead of the Lib Dems......but looks like a lot more on the bar chart.
Sky news last night did not count the SNP/Plaid/Irish votes when compiling their Anti Brexit charts.
Gave a very wooly reason for not doing so.
Which again highlights the fact no one knows for certain exactly what the split/mandate is.
But if we're going to play games with numbers, here's a thought. There were 70 seats on offer, excluding NI as I can't find the numbers for NI. Brexit Party won 29 seats. The Tories, who have Brexit on their manifesto, picked up 4 seats, and Labour, who also have Brexit in their manifesto, picked up 10 seats. That means 43 seats out of 70 voted Brexit. A solid mandate for Leave, almost 62%. Whether its Leave with No Deal or a Deal, its Leave.
Thats how easy it is to manipulate the numbers to support an argument.
D
Deleted member 1418
Guest
You're right Brian.
The only important stats IMO are seats won and % share of the vote, and the Brexit Party trounced everyone on those.
Crazyface
Tour Winner
No all the voters who voted for LD/LAB/CONS were Remainers. Some would be Leavers but due to years of crazy loyalty they vote with the party they have supported all their lives. So it's not as cut and dried as the EVIL BBC and others are making out. I now think we should have a public vote with ONLY two choices, (because this is all that's on offer)
1. No deal
2. Mrs Mays deal (coz this is all the EU are offering).
And lets see how this goes.
Crazyface
Tour Winner
And if a GE was called now, they'd win by a landslide!
The Peterborough election result will be interesting.
U
User62651
Guest
Lots of commentary and conjecture.
From a low turnout again -
Brexit Party under Farage did well but only won a few more MEPs than UKIP did under Farage last time out. It's still a one man band. A party with no policies. At 2015 GE UKIP under Farage got zero MPs despite getting 24 MEPs the year before. Success in one doesn't lead directly to success in another.
The remain or leave balance can't be extrapolated properly from a low turnout and because Conservatives and Labour were not for one or the other - there are remain and leavers aplenty in both.
Leave vote is united behind Farage presently, remain vote is split across more parties. If the Euro election results were for a GE The Brexit Party could claim the win, but it's not a GE. Similarly if it was an in/out referendum last Thursday then remain are ahead of leave and could claim the win based on vote share. Again it's wasn't a referendum though.
Can be spun any way and is being. All it actually tells us is the number of MEPs each party has.
From a low turnout again -
Brexit Party under Farage did well but only won a few more MEPs than UKIP did under Farage last time out. It's still a one man band. A party with no policies. At 2015 GE UKIP under Farage got zero MPs despite getting 24 MEPs the year before. Success in one doesn't lead directly to success in another.
The remain or leave balance can't be extrapolated properly from a low turnout and because Conservatives and Labour were not for one or the other - there are remain and leavers aplenty in both.
Leave vote is united behind Farage presently, remain vote is split across more parties. If the Euro election results were for a GE The Brexit Party could claim the win, but it's not a GE. Similarly if it was an in/out referendum last Thursday then remain are ahead of leave and could claim the win based on vote share. Again it's wasn't a referendum though.
Can be spun any way and is being. All it actually tells us is the number of MEPs each party has.
D
Deleted member 15344
Guest
Would they? During the last election UKIP ( which are in essence BP ) won zero seats - I suspect if there was a GE right now BP will win zero seats - they have no manifesto for running the country.
If a GE did happen then I expect it would be nothing different - very close between the two main parties but Lib Dem’s have a resurgence and maybe once again forming an alliance with someone
Labour have Corbyn so that makes them imo unelectable once again
On your last point Phil, there's a danger of walking blindly into a nightmare there. Corbyn rallied the electorate in the last GE, starting from a poor position, and almost won. I agree it was a poor showing from them last week but a GE is mainly about domestic policy and Labour are promising the earth to everyone that is willing to listen.
Doon frae Troon
Ryder Cup Winner
Totally disagree, the Brexit vote is not strong enough to win many seats, less than 5 maximum IMO.
Brexit = UKIP a protest vote, simple as that, they just changed their name.
Can you honestly see the British public voting in Farage as PM.
Last edited:
Before people get too excited about analysing the results, as an example, in Northumberland the voter turn out on Thursday was 34%. In the EU referendum the turn out was 74.4%. Huge difference in turnout, massive.
When you hear why people didn't vote this time they largely say that it was worthless. The MEP's will only sit for 4-5 months so what was the point. Hard to argue against that viewpoint.
The vote on Thursday was a free hit for voters, a no consequence vote. A GE or another referendum is a completely different matter.
When you hear why people didn't vote this time they largely say that it was worthless. The MEP's will only sit for 4-5 months so what was the point. Hard to argue against that viewpoint.
The vote on Thursday was a free hit for voters, a no consequence vote. A GE or another referendum is a completely different matter.
Taz
Journeyman Pro
The BP would be hard pressed to come up with a worse manifesto than the Tories did last time !
I'm sure once Corbyns plans are properly costed they'll be a busted flush.
If the LD's can select a charismatic leaders who knows , they might sneak up on the rails 😲
I'm sure once Corbyns plans are properly costed they'll be a busted flush.
If the LD's can select a charismatic leaders who knows , they might sneak up on the rails 😲
The LD's have 11 MP's right now. One is Vince Cable, the other Tim Farron, the last leader. That leaves them with a choice of 9 people to be that charismatic leader. There may be one out of that 9 but that is a tough ask from such a small pool of people.
Bunkermagnet
Journeyman Pro
Aren't most BP heirachy mainly disaffected right wing members of the Tory party?
I wouldn't call Farage or Widdecombe "socially caring" ex conservatives.
I wouldn't call Farage or Widdecombe "socially caring" ex conservatives.
