Coronavirus - political views - supporting or otherwise...

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I am certainly NOT an expert on anything.
But my IOW BIL recons that only 25% of the population on the IOW have a smart phone.
The clue is......….what type of person moves to the IOW.

...and we know at least one member of the forum who has never had ANY sort of mobile phone...never mind a SMART phone.

But if the report that 80% of IOW residents are willing - or are going - to download the app then that's a good thing.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Barber?
A couple of stats to add on,
One on four over 65, one in six houses are single occupancy.
Your own IOW stats states biggest single age group is between 66 and 72.

IOW just seems like a lazy choice, and results will not show as 'average' because it is a flipping island.
Why not choose a town like Cambridge, Oxford or new towns like MK or Swindon where I would imagine smart phone useage would have been much higher.

My barber told me he'd head off back to France as a result of Brexit and the xenophobia he was hearing (who am I to judge what he was hearing) among a section of the UK electorate - and he did. Apparently it's a forum 'in joke'

 

[Doon frae Troon]

My barber told me he'd head off back to France as a result of Brexit and the xenophobia he was hearing (who am I to judge what he was hearing) among a section of the UK electorate - and he did. Apparently it's a forum 'in joke'

Thanks Hoggie.
I don't know how you manage to put up with the abuse you get on here from the usual suspects, keep at it, they are just trying to drive you off the site because you hold a different view to them.
BTW I assume you had good news with your missus.
Not such good news with my mum, she is on end of life care now and decided to stay in the care home rather than hospital/hospice. Not CV related just her ticker is giving out.

 

[Swinglowandslow]

Perhaps they mean it is a poor choice because of the low smart phone use.
From what I have seen the app needs around 80% smart phone use to be effective.

They are now saying that UK unemployment will reach between 19% to 35% after the crisis is over.
Worst hit areas will be Northern England.

Look, the app is being tested to see if it works as an app, not to get meaningful data figures from which to make policy. It doesn't need the 80 % you are on about. It just needs to see if people's phones interact with each other, , electronically etc .
Being an island apparently assists in this regard. Hence the venue.
Then if it does work as intended, it will be offered out for the population to help the government to get the data, ( and , so ,help the country).
If the population don't cooperate, then that isn't the apps fault, or the promoters of the app, or the government. It's the populations responsibility for turning down an opportunity to fight the virus.

 

[drdel]

The IOW is a relatively contained population with few transport links to mainland. It also has single good hospital, low but high enough infection rate.

It's about the only feasible statistically and technological option for the UK.

Using a town on the mainland would have too much noise in the data?

 

[rudebhoy]

Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed 29,648 deaths linked to coronavirus had taken place in England and Wales as of 24 April.

Including deaths for Scotland and Northern Ireland, the toll on this measure now amounts to 32,313.

According to the ONS report, of the deaths registered up to 24 April, 71.8 per cent (19,643 deaths) occurred in hospital. 5,890 deaths took place in care homes, 1,306 in private homes and 301 in hospices. This represents a fall of 12.6 per cent in hospital deaths, but an increase of 2,500 deaths in care home deaths compared to the week before.


We now have the highest death rate in Europe - what was that Johnson was saying about us succeeding in avoiding the awful tragedy seen in other countries?

 

[rudebhoy]

Look, the app is being tested to see if it works as an app, not to get meaningful data figures from which to make policy. It doesn't need the 80 % you are on about. It just needs to see if people's phones interact with each other, , electronically etc .
Being an island apparently assists in this regard. Hence the venue.
Then if it does work as intended, it will be offered out for the population to help the government to get the data, ( and , so ,help the country).
If the population don't cooperate, then that isn't the apps fault, or the promoters of the app, or the government. It's the populations responsibility for turning down an opportunity to fight the virus.

surely part of the testing is to see what the take up rate is?

anyway, fingers crossed it goes well, and is rolled out country-wide asap, hopefully before restrictions are relaxed.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Look, the app is being tested to see if it works as an app, not to get meaningful data figures from which to make policy. It doesn't need the 80 % you are on about. It just needs to see if people's phones interact with each other, , electronically etc .
Being an island apparently assists in this regard. Hence the venue.
Then if it does work as intended, it will be offered out for the population to help the government to get the data, ( and , so ,help the country).
If the population don't cooperate, then that isn't the apps fault, or the promoters of the app, or the government. It's the populations responsibility for turning down an opportunity to fight the virus.

I understand it better now....my missus explained.

The app is being tested before the IOW becomes the first part of the UK to leave lockdown.
Locals protesting about being used as lockdown guinea pigs, not for testing the app and using low smart phone use as an example to take it elsewhere.
Essential staff, food deliveries etc etc still using the ferries both ways but would be lower numbers than on the mainland.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

[We now have the highest death rate in Europe - what was that Johnson was saying about us succeeding in avoiding the awful tragedy seen in other countries?[/QUOTE]]


Very badly chose words that would have been written by a speech writer and checked a few times before being read out.

 

[PhilTheFragger]

We now have the highest death rate in Europe - what was that Johnson was saying about us succeeding in avoiding the awful tragedy seen in other countries?

[/QUOTE]


Doon if you listened to Andrew Marr on Sunday , there was a bloke from the Office of National Statistics, who was very interesting to hear
He said that countries are not counting deaths in the same way, some are counting it if Corona is the sole cause of death, others, like us are counting it if Corona is a contributory factor in that death

It would obviously be far easier if all countries could use the same method of counting, until that happens, you are comparing Asparagus and Aubergines

At the end of all this the only way to tell will be to compare the number of deaths over a period of time, with averages from past years
and the ratio of deaths to population numbers

In the meantime, spinning the numbers to your own political agenda, helps nobody

 

[Imurg]

Plus Italian number crunchers reckon they've underestimated by as many 15k...
Not that it's a race but you can only compare like with like...

 

[Wolf]

Doon if you listened to Andrew Marr on Sunday , there was a bloke from the Office of National Statistics, who was very interesting to hear
He said that countries are not counting deaths in the same way, some are counting it if Corona is the sole cause of death, others, like us are counting it if Corona is a contributory factor in that death

It would obviously be far easier if all countries could use the same method of counting, until that happens, you are comparing Asparagus and Aubergines

At the end of all this the only way to tell will be to compare the number of deaths over a period of time, with averages from past years
and the ratio of deaths to population numbers

In the meantime, spinning the numbers to your own political agenda, helps nobody

If I was intelligent enough to put a clapping gif I'd put several here now.. Absolutely spot on and why comparing across countries is pointless because everyone is reporting their figures differently. People just want to spin to suit their own agenda to highlight flaws in parties they don't support.

Well said Frag...

 

[PhilTheFragger]

The deaths per million are key. look at Belgium, Spain is still a fair bit ahead too, as is Italy

Russia is going to explode as is India,
it aint over yet, unfortunately

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Thanks Hoggie.
I don't know how you manage to put up with the abuse you get on here from the usual suspects, keep at it, they are just trying to drive you off the site because you hold a different view to them.
BTW I assume you had good news with your missus.
Not such good news with my mum, she is on end of life care now and decided to stay in the care home rather than hospital/hospice. Not CV related just her ticker is giving out.

We did thankyou - a positive outcome - though it was a scary two weeks given what my wife knew would be the prognosis if the outcome had been in the negative.

And fortunately - as much because of my wife's situation and other stuff that I do that helps me - I am able to practice a lot of acceptance around the things I cannot change - seeing things in the perspective they merit and acting/reacting accordingly And my thoughts and prayers with you, your mum and close ones...

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

how?)

Setting aside the debate over the central/local data retention issue, it seems to me that the strategy requires people who are identified as close contacts to be tested, and if found to be positive, their close contacts to be tested too and son on. It takes a few days to organise testing and get the results back, so by the time the contacts are tested, around 5 days will have passed. This is the median incubation, so decent chance of identifying the next wave of cases. Contacts who test negative will also be tested again if symptoms subsequently appear. The failure to get testing up fast enough at scale is vying with PPE failures as the biggest failings of the entire strategy.

What I am missing is where the 18,000 'contact-tracers' fit into the solution. What I'm hearing this morning is all about the app? Or is this just about whether the app works and if proven the full solution will involve contact-tracers doing follow-up (how will they do that?) to check that all who will have been pinged by the app got the ping, and have acted accordingly - self-isolate then get tested?

 

[Old Skier]

Just checked and around 7:35 and Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary, was talking about mobile testing centres - manned by armed forces personnel. He stated, as a bit of an aside, that arounf 25% of those who had booked a test from a mobile test unit did not turn up. Was that it?

Could be, maybe I am deaf

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

If I was intelligent enough to put a clapping gif I'd put several here now.. Absolutely spot on and why comparing across countries is pointless because everyone is reporting their figures differently. People just want to spin to suit their own agenda to highlight flaws in parties they don't support.

Well said Frag...

This is just so not true - but it is the agenda that those supporting the government - it seems no matter what happens - would like to spin. Flaws in what the government is doing should concern as all - but apparently not.

Many of us simply struggle to trust this government because of what some of us see as the Brexit debacle and the history of some of the key participants in making that happen - and who are now the ministers and advisors. What I want is openness, clarity and honesty from the government. If the government chooses to provide us with comparative data then I am absolutely entitled to make observations and raise questions on what that data says.

That supporters of this government seem to completely fail to understand this very simple fact of life - and they continue to spin any scepticism and questioning as being politically motivated and anti-government - frankly astonishes me.

 

[Old Skier]

Its because it's an island....
Travel to and from is relatively restricted so it's easier to see how the virus spreads in a "relatively " confined area.
Choose Oxford or similar and you have much more engagement of people as more are able to come into the city to shop or work, some from many miles away.
They're trying to find out if the app works.
Trailing it in a controllable area makes perfect sense

Yep doesn't take a genius really but he's got to have his normal moan against anything south of the boarder. Wonder if Scottish Universities will have the neck to ask RUK for handout

 

[Wolf]

This is just so not true - but it is the agenda that those supporting the government - it seems no matter what happens - would like to spin. Flaws in what the government is doing should concern as all - but apparently not.

Many of us simply struggle to trust this government because of what some of us see as the Brexit debacle and the history of some of the key participants in making that happen - and who are now the ministers and advisors. What I want is openness, clarity and honesty from the government. If the government chooses to provide us with comparative data then I am absolutely entitled to make observations and raise questions on what that data says.

That supporters of this government seem to completely fail to understand this very simple fact of life - and they continue to spin any scepticism and questioning as being politically motivated and anti-government - frankly astonishes me.

It is in many cases completely true. Also if you cannot separate brexit from coronavirus in your views that says a lot about only viewing through personal political bias.

I'm no Tory supporter, I also didn't want Brexit but I do believe they've done many things right during this period and yes got some wrong but that would be the same for any government.

However the point I was replying to was about number reporting and comparing like for like against other countries and using that as something to spin against the government. We shouldn't be comparing with anyone or using those comparisons to dig out whoever is in government when other countries have completely different criteria for reporting the death tolls..

As for your last paragraph that is not only the supporters of this government, it would be the same of supporters of a Labour, Liberal or any other government that they have a political support towards.

 

[Old Skier]

how?)

What I am missing is where the 18,000 'contact-tracers' fit into the solution. What I'm hearing this morning is all about the app? Or is this just about whether the app works and if proven the full solution will involve contact-tracers doing follow-up (how will they do that?) to check that all who will have been pinged by the app got the ping, and have acted accordingly - self-isolate then get tested?

The contract tracers will be civil servants and mostly call center staff. You have a test, you prove positive, phone rings if your not an app user and you are asked where/who you may have been with over the last - 5? days then the fun(tracing) will begin. Well that's how or MP explained it on her daily FB briefings.