Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

As it would effect all sides a sensible AGREEMENT to deal with issues outside of WTO rules seems very likely.

And what agreement will that be? There is no alternative agreement. All we get from No Deal is better than May's Deal is WTO - nothing else...

Meanwhile the NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) forecasts a loss per head of, on average, £1000 a year on basis of May's Agreement. Tsk. Experts. What do they know. They just don't believe strongly enough.

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/economic-effects-prime-ministers-brexit-deal#.W_wZsGdLHDc

 

[Old Skier]

And what agreement will that be? There is no alternative agreement. All we get from No Deal is better than May's Deal is WTO - nothing else...

Meanwhile the NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) forecasts a loss per head of, on average, £1000 a year on basis of May's Agreement. Tsk. Experts. What do they know. They just don't believe strongly enough.

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/economic-effects-prime-ministers-brexit-deal#.W_wZsGdLHDc

Someone will come along with something completely different, some came along and said there would be no EU Army.

Just because it's said don't always make it right.

 

[Slime]

Support me and my draft Brexit deal or it could result in a no Brexit deal says our desperate PM.

Ooooo that's a toughy Teresa

You've been having pops at her for so long now and you still can't get her name right!
It's Theresa ....................... with an h in it!!

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Just to clarify, if I am a supporter of Scottish Independence I would naturally be against most Westminster [British] politics.
Nice list of well funded English Midlands car industry supporting universities.
Pity we have no car industry in Scotland.
Probably the fault of the SNP for the last 70 years.

Well at least you are balanced

You have a massive chip on both shoulders

 

[drdel]

And what agreement will that be? There is no alternative agreement. All we get from No Deal is better than May's Deal is WTO - nothing else...

Meanwhile the NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) forecasts a loss per head of, on average, £1000 a year on basis of May's Agreement. Tsk. Experts. What do they know. They just don't believe strongly enough.

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/economic-effects-prime-ministers-brexit-deal#.W_wZsGdLHDc

To be gentlemanly I'll assume you read the full 27 pages where the authors cite that outside EU (based on their pretty wild assumptions) GDP will fall 3% and inside the EU by 2%.

Thus, by my maths, a difference of just 1%. Their £1,000 is based on the 3% so actually we might be talking about average GDP change of about £333 per head. Which is a long way from saying each citizen's income will drop by this amount - assuming you accept their convenient assumptions.

IMO you have made a spurious deduction .

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Someone will come along with something completely different, some came along and said there would be no EU Army.

Just because it's said don't always make it right.

Yup - as usual - just ignore and pretend all will be fine and throw in usual irrelevant 'whatabootery' just to avoid.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

To be gentlemanly I'll assume you read the full 27 pages where the authors cite that outside EU (based on their pretty wild assumptions) GDP will fall 3% and inside the EU by 2%.

Thus, by my maths, a difference of just 1%. Their £1,000 is based on the 3% so actually we might be talking about average GDP change of about £333 per head. Which is a long way from saying each citizen's income will drop by this amount - assuming you accept their convenient assumptions.

IMO you have made a spurious deduction .

So 2% hit already because of Brexit vote that even staying in a customs union with the EU or in the backstop will resolve (I am not sure the study assumes staying in the EU - just staying in a CU with the EU) - and May's Agreement will hit GDP by a further 1%. Still got Brexit hitting GDP by 3%.

 

[Foxholer]

To be gentlemanly I'll assume you read the full 27 pages where the authors cite that outside EU (based on their pretty wild assumptions) GDP will fall 3% and inside the EU by 2%.

Thus, by my maths, a difference of just 1%. Their £1,000 is based on the 3% so actually we might be talking about average GDP change of about £333 per head. Which is a long way from saying each citizen's income will drop by this amount - assuming you accept their convenient assumptions.

IMO you have made a spurious deduction .

Er. You 'maths' is simply wrong!! As an econometrician - as opposed to a politician - you should be ashamed to suggest such rubbish! Or at least argue it the way you have in the text I've made bold!!

If you accept that their report is correct - a notoriously unreliable assumption! - then GDP WILL drop by £1000/citizen. The fact that it would fall by £667 if inside the EU is irrelevant!

Btw.

1. The figures are arguments for BOTH sides of the Brexit debate!
2. Are you saying that NIESR and NiGEM data/models are unreliable?

 

[Old Skier]

Yup - as usual - just ignore and pretend all will be fine and throw in usual irrelevant 'whatabootery' just to avoid.

Unlike you, I will respond to your post.

You obviously never read what I post. I have never said that all will be wine and roses and there will be problems but unlike you have the ability to realize that each side will post what best suits them.

Can you confirm what the EU are or aren't looking at a EU Army and that life in the EU will be an economic oasis within Europe and provide independent evidence of this.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Unlike you, I will respond to your post.

You obviously never read what I post. I have never said that all will be wine and roses and there will be problems but unlike you have the ability to realize that each side will post what best suits them.

Can you confirm what the EU are or aren't looking at a EU Army and that life in the EU will be an economic oasis within Europe and provide independent evidence of this.

No I can't - and as we are leaving it doesn't really matter now does it - it's an irrelevance to a UK outside of the EU - except that in some circumstances we might want to work with the EU militarily and will have less insider influence that we might otherwise have had.

Anyway - here's what the government thinks will happen in the event of No Deal.

file:///C:/Users/A150759/Downloads/CBP-8397.pdf

 

[Foxholer]

...
And on alternative to May's Agreement - Secret Five - wherefore art thou? Gove, Leadsom, Grayling, Fox and Mordaunt - where's your alternative for May to take to the EU to renegotiate? Lots of noise when the details of the May Agreement leaked out and became known - but silence every since.

Meanwhile on the back benches the great leader Johnson just makes duplicitous and self-serving noises.

That's what happens in the political world!!

 

[IanM]

Can you confirm what the EU are or aren't looking at a EU Army and that life in the EU will be an economic oasis within Europe and provide independent evidence of this.

Well... Merkel and Tusk have been very specific all week about the need for an EU army and increased centalisation of power. (but shhhh, lets keep talking Trade Deals!)

 

[Old Skier]

No I can't -

Just like leavers yet you continue to ask knowing this.

Can you tell us the economic effects that the EU might or might not suffer when we leave the EU?

 

[Old Skier]

Quote of the week from a Labour MP on the EU debate, "isn't it time for all of the U.K. citizens to get a vote on leaving the EU", silence for the first time in the house followed by the odd snigger.

 

[Hobbit]

If it was offered to Davis why didn't he accept it? He was in charge? Methinks NI/EI border control and Tory party subservience to the DUP ruled it out as an Option. Besides - what Tusk post vote defined for Canada +++ is irrelevant to the vote as it wasn't defined before the vote so we could not have voted for it.

You will continue to twist and turn. Davis couldn't accept it as he wasn't empowered to do so. And even if he was, you do remember Gina Miller?

And you're also splitting hairs on the who, what and when it was defined.

You also failed, totally, to acknowledge who 'authored' the Canada +++. You thought it was Davis, and was having a dig about why Davis hadn't brought it up before this week and why hadn't he defined it. You're behaving very duplicitous over this.

 

[SocketRocket]

And what agreement will that be? There is no alternative agreement. All we get from No Deal is better than May's Deal is WTO - nothing else...

Meanwhile the NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) forecasts a loss per head of, on average, £1000 a year on basis of May's Agreement. Tsk. Experts. What do they know. They just don't believe strongly enough.

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/economic-effects-prime-ministers-brexit-deal#.W_wZsGdLHDc

Ah, not as bad as expected then. Osborne told us we would be £4000 worse off per annum after votiing to leave.

 

[Mudball]

<Broken Record>
This is a good set piece being delivered. A good/bad (take your pick) was typed up by the mandarins.
Maybot stands for it. There are a few resignations, EU agrees to it, Opposition makes a lot of noise, but it will get voted in.
It will get the votes because Tories want to protect their job aka dont want Corbyn in. Labour will break rank and vote because they are clueless where Corbyn sits.. DUP will agree because they will bargain for more money for NI etc etc.

Net Net.. a 'people's choice' will inevitably agreed by folks in Westminister who are only interested in their own jobs - country be dammed.
Personally, I havent read it, but it sounds like we are going to be still working to EU rules just without the ability to influence them. So its a good result for those who wanted to Leave (as we are leaving) and it is a good result for those who wanted to Remain (because we are going to Remain).. great win-win

On more important subject.. whats happening on Celebrity Big Brother these days?

 

[SocketRocket]

Very good. So what is the answer to my question? WTO rules cover trade - and so - in the event of a No Deal what happens to everything else that is covered by the Withdrawal Agreement that is not trade related and is not addressed by trading under WTO rules.

And on alternative to May's Agreement - Secret Five - wherefore art thou? Gove, Leadsom, Grayling, Fox and Mordaunt - where's your alternative for May to take to the EU to renegotiate? Lots of noise when the details of the May Agreement leaked out and became known - but silence every since.

Meanwhile on the back benches the great leader Johnson just makes duplicitous and self-serving noises.

The answer is the UK would make seperate agreements just like other independant countries. How do you think countries like Australia, New Zealand , Japan, Canada ans so forth manage.

 

[Fade and Die]

You do really need to stop listening to LBC, I know you believe everything the idiot O’ Brien says, but he talks so much tosh it’s laughable

My God he was at he’s absolute swivel eyed worst today! Ranting on about leavers being thrown in the Tower for their crimes against the country..... he is a clever orator and takes people that have a leave view apart every time but as he himself says, “you can win an argument but still be wrong”
The man is his own greatest fan, often sounding smug and condescending as he turns off the caller to have the last word. Detestable narrow minded man.

 

[USER1999]

The answer is the UK would make seperate agreements just like other independant countries. How do you think countries like Australia, New Zealand , Japan, Canada ans so forth manage.

Under May's agreement, I don't think the UK can.