Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

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Old Skier said:
You know this as fact or did your mate in the pub tell you.

Please provide evidence to support your post 🤔
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It's really, really just not worth it. No forecast about what will happen in the event of a No Deal - even from the mouths of some Leave supporting government ministers - no matter how many and from whosoever - will ever give rise to any doubt in your mind that their are massive risks to us leaving the Eu and that perhaps - just perhaps - it is not actually the right thing to do. So I am not going to bother. Just go read or listen to what many commentators and economic forecasters are saying.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
Did I understand this even vaguely correctly. That the OBR provides the Chancellor with 5yr economic forecasts and analysis of the public finances for his Budget purposes and these are based upon what the government aims to achieve over that 5yr period. And as the government wishes (clearly) to achieve a smooth and painless Brexit then the OBR forecasts used for the Budget had to be based upon the assumption that such a Brexit would be achieved.

Excellent.
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Yes you understood that correctly. Just as the chancellor said that if a smooth Brexit wasn't achieved there'd have to be another budget. Did you miss that bit?

There had to be a budget, and there is an expectation of a deal, hence the budget that was produced. Not difficult to understand.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
Did I understand this even vaguely correctly. That the OBR provides the Chancellor with 5yr economic forecasts and analysis of the public finances for his Budget purposes and these are based upon what the government aims to achieve over that 5yr period. And as the government wishes (clearly) to achieve a smooth and painless Brexit then the OBR forecasts used for the Budget had to be based upon the assumption that such a Brexit would be achieved.

Excellent.
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Groundless assumption. The OBR will have taken at least 3 scenarios.
 
Looks like the Westminster Government is spending £billions on stockpiling medicines pre Brexit after all.

Despite previous assurances from half a dozen guys on a golf forum that they were not.:unsure:
 
woody69 said:
I never suggested you said the questions weren't true. I just asked why you said they were "interestingly framed", when they simply asked respondents to state which statement they believed in. Please excuse my ignorance, but can you expand on how the question on employment sectors would draw the opposite conclusion?

I don't think the survey suggests leavers are poorly educated racists, just that a significant proportion are/were misinformed
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Were a significant number of Remain voters not misinformed by the rantings of project fear? Of course they were, just look back at the predictions from Cameron, Osborne, At El on how we would be affected immediately following a leave vote. The BS was pretty evenly spread IMO.
 
SocketRocket said:
Were a significant number of Remain voters not misinformed by the rantings of project fear? Of course they were, just look back at the predictions from Cameron, Osborne, At El on how we would be affected immediately following a leave vote. The BS was pretty evenly spread IMO.
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13 million people didn't vote who were eligible, that's the depressing side of this. It's all bye the bye but those who want change are motivated and will vote in very high %, those who want the status quo generally are not motivated, perhaps making assumptions that things will stay as they are. A harsh lesson hopefully learned. If you dont choose to vote extremists and minority views can win, that's what people need to realise, complaining later on is no good. Apathy can be dangerous.
 
Old Skier said:
That's a no then.
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It's a no. you can go and read about the forecasts - they can easily be found.

Many are not based upon airey-fairly notions about what we might be able to do in the future - they are based upon detailed understanding of the present - with direct extrapolations. As for any modelling and estimation there are levels of uncertainty around your measurements,, variables and the predictions - but these uncertainties are significantly reduced if you have some real data - real measurements to go on. So for instance we know how haulage vehicles are processed at ports - we know how long it takes. That's real stuff that you can model from with quite low uncertainty.

So let's say the speed limit on the M25 around Heathrow was tomorrow morning at 9am - without warning - reduced to 20mph. What is likely to happen?

I cannot tell you exactly what will happen because I cannot actually see the future - but I can predict with a very high level of confidence that things will grind to a halt very quickly. I might not be able to say they will grind to a halt - because who knows - traffic volumes on the M25 might for some unknown reason be negligible tomorrow morning at 9am. But that is very unlikely and so we can predict with almost 100% confidence that a massive snarl up will happen and it will not clear for as long as the speed limit stays at 20mph.

I would suggest that many of the projections that are rejected as Project Fear are of this nature - built on understanding of the real world today and historically, and built on the rock of fact.

As far as Brexit lovers projections - all completely built upon sand I might suggest. Because we have very little - if any - evidence whatsoever on how the UK economy and business will perform in respect post Brexit - because the UK has never existed in a global economy of the sort we have today. Everything is wishful thinking. And for me that's just not good enough.
 
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Is it just me or does anyone also think that the most likely scenario is

... We will cry wolf wolf wolf about no deal.. and then out of the blue all the cards will fall into place and 'we have a deal'... everyone is a winner (other than Labour)..
 
Mudball said:
Is it just me or does anyone also think that the most likely scenario is

... We will cry wolf wolf wolf about no deal.. and then out of the blue all the cards will fall into place and 'we have a deal'... everyone is a winner (other than Labour)..
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Nope. I think we'll leave without a deal. Too much room between the negotiating parties and too many people with vested interests laying down red lines.
 
Fade and Die said:
You think it’s a good thing to be part of an organisation that is passing legislation limiting freedom of speech? Wow you federalist are an odd bunch! 🤯
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Did you read the article you posted? This is a direct quote from it.....

Some commentators have misinterpreted the ruling as reimposing a blasphemy law across Europe but this is not the case. All the European Court has done is ruled that those states that do have blasphemy laws can maintain and enforce them. It does not re-impose blasphemy laws on states that do not have such laws, and does not in any way reverse the decision taken by Irish voters on Friday to repeal Ireland’s law. Nonetheless, the ruling is still a bad one, as it would have been hoped that the Court would move towards striking down blasphemy laws across Europe.

It's still completely up to the local electorate as to whether they want a blasphemy law. Woukd you have preferred that they insisted that a national law be repealed? I thought that was exactly what was wrong with the EU?
 
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