150 Yards Out
- Thread starter timhowe
- Start date
Google Mark Broadie - Every Shot Counts. Most probably the most comprehensive statistical study into golf ever conducted. There's a reason the Major tours and almost all Pros use his method to analyse strengths, weaknesses and overall performance vs the field. Shows up the old 'drive for show putt for dough' to be completely flawed.
http://everyshotcounts.com/
That will be one then
londonlewis
Tour Rookie
you just need 4 more now...
Orikoru
Tour Winner
I already do this to be honest. My driver is hit and miss but my short irons are more consistent, so on a short par 4 I'll happily tee off with a 6 or 7 iron, then take an 8 or 9 or even another 7 iron for the second shot. No need for me to try and belt the thing as far as possible and increase the risk of sticking it left or right.
Region3
Ryder Cup Winner
Do you disagree with Broadie, or this thread's interpretation of his study?
Region3
Ryder Cup Winner
Have you ever tried swinging your driver as smoothly as you do a 6 or 7 iron?
garyinderry
Ryder Cup Winner
Exactly there s no need to be belting driver as hard as possible every time you take it out.
A controlled driver often has less spin and in dry conditions runs out nearly as far as a full wack spinny high carry effort.
A controlled driver often has less spin and in dry conditions runs out nearly as far as a full wack spinny high carry effort.
londonlewis
Tour Rookie
Bought this book today, hope it is good. Anyone read it yet?
garyinderry
Ryder Cup Winner
If using driver or any club for that matter. You must identify where is dead off the tee.
Our first for example has a big clump of fir trees at around 220-240 15 yards off to the right of the fairway. Behind or in them is dead. The play here is to avoid this at all costs. It is usually into the teeth of the wind so bang in play for most players.
There is two holes running up and down to the left. Plenty of smaller trees left but you need to be really unlucky to fond yourself dead tight up against them. It is an easy escape back on and simple wedge on.
Even if you hook wildly off the first you end up on the 18th fairway.
This is all preferable to going into these fir trees. The amount of times people hit into them is ridiculous. Myself included. Not as often these days. I've learnt my lesson.
The same thing has to be identified on each tee.
2nd - fairly safe. Small trees either side. Easy escape. Bang driver.
3rd - Par 3 right is trouble. Favour left miss.
4 th - right is dead. Left isn't great. Favour left.
5th - par 3 safe either side.
6- right is dead. Lost ball material. Same on second shot. Lay up often called for.
7 - right is dead.
8- par 3 safe both sides
9 - fir trees from 1 in play again. Catches shorter hitters as only 210 to carry usually downwind. Favour left.
10 - tight hole. You won't see me with driver here ever. Oob right and water left. Lay up with iron short of water and sometimes hybrid in, usually 7.
11 - left dead
12 - let her rip
13 - par 3 favour right
14 Oob all the way up 450 yards up hill to dogleg on par 5. Favour adjacent hole.
15 - OOB all down right of par 4. Favour left. Pull onto adjacent hole. Anything preferable to knocking over fence and Oob.
16- tight short par 4. Fairly safe unless its a real offline one. Use anything your comfortable with all the way to driver. Don't need to murder it.
17 - 18 - let the big dog eat.
This is my guide. The no go is a must. The other side is usually ok and if you miss that side of fairway its a simple enough recovery.
Our first for example has a big clump of fir trees at around 220-240 15 yards off to the right of the fairway. Behind or in them is dead. The play here is to avoid this at all costs. It is usually into the teeth of the wind so bang in play for most players.
There is two holes running up and down to the left. Plenty of smaller trees left but you need to be really unlucky to fond yourself dead tight up against them. It is an easy escape back on and simple wedge on.
Even if you hook wildly off the first you end up on the 18th fairway.
This is all preferable to going into these fir trees. The amount of times people hit into them is ridiculous. Myself included. Not as often these days. I've learnt my lesson.
The same thing has to be identified on each tee.
2nd - fairly safe. Small trees either side. Easy escape. Bang driver.
3rd - Par 3 right is trouble. Favour left miss.
4 th - right is dead. Left isn't great. Favour left.
5th - par 3 safe either side.
6- right is dead. Lost ball material. Same on second shot. Lay up often called for.
7 - right is dead.
8- par 3 safe both sides
9 - fir trees from 1 in play again. Catches shorter hitters as only 210 to carry usually downwind. Favour left.
10 - tight hole. You won't see me with driver here ever. Oob right and water left. Lay up with iron short of water and sometimes hybrid in, usually 7.
11 - left dead
12 - let her rip
13 - par 3 favour right
14 Oob all the way up 450 yards up hill to dogleg on par 5. Favour adjacent hole.
15 - OOB all down right of par 4. Favour left. Pull onto adjacent hole. Anything preferable to knocking over fence and Oob.
16- tight short par 4. Fairly safe unless its a real offline one. Use anything your comfortable with all the way to driver. Don't need to murder it.
17 - 18 - let the big dog eat.
This is my guide. The no go is a must. The other side is usually ok and if you miss that side of fairway its a simple enough recovery.
Orikoru
Tour Winner
Was just a figure of speech really!
I don't actually go for a mad thumping swing, and I don't have a long drive either - only about 230 yards. I just meant that for me it's either (a) take a driver, trying and leave myself a short chip on, but maybe only 6/10 drives go where I want them, or (b) take a mid iron, leave 150 yards to the flag, but more like 8/10 of my mid and short irons will go where I want, so the success rate is higher.Basically, I get where the topic-starter is coming from.
If want to ignore what is by far the most scientific golf analysis, one used by the very best players, coaches and biggest Tours then be my guest - No skin off my nose!
Some people still believe the earth is flat or that the universe was created in 6 days...
Scozzy
Medal Winner
Its a great read for all golf nerds with a dizzying amount of stats that reinforce,to my mind anyway,what our US friends love in general...a good stat😀 That being that going long off the tee as possible can only be good,with stats to match of course!
For me however it lacks a human element and as the level of golfer heads towards "average" you need to take those stats with a grain of salt but for pros and very low markers I can see why they would love it if you can get your head around it all! It's basic premise is hit it long and hit it close so putting isn't such an issue........
my course has the same "wee burn" meandering though the course in front of three greens at about 10 yds from front of green(s).......all offer chance to go long off the tee(two are par 5s) and all three are in top ten stroke index and grab your attention.One way or other you obviously need to clear the water on all 3..... do you get as close as possible and take on a tricky little wedge shot all the while not hitting your approach or your chip into the water OR go easy off the tee and leave a full (comfortable?)wedge/short iron into green hopefully!? taking water out of play? Personal choice based on your own game,conditions,lie etc and how you feel on the day,hard for a book to quantify that but no doubt a worthwhile read.
Craigg
Q-School Graduate
I try my best not to leave myself a fiddly little 50/60 yarder. Much more comfortable and dare I say, accurate, with a full 8 iron.
MadAdey
Money List Winner
So going on your theory I should use everything I have in the locker. I can actually show you if you do not believe how far I can hit the ball, I have the stats from when I got fitted for my driver and I just gave one of the swings 100%, it was out at 330 yards. But I normally swing well within myself and keep it at around the 280 mark as this gives me better accuracy.
I have been reading some reviews and what I read is that people are using his theories to analyze stats, not to prove that hitting it as far as you can all the time will lower your scores.
pokerjoke
Money List Winner
So going on your theory I should use everything I have in the locker. I can actually show you if you do not believe how far I can hit the ball, I have the stats from when I got fitted for my driver and I just gave one of the swings 100%, it was out at 330 yards. But I normally swing well within myself and keep it at around the 280 mark as this gives me better accuracy.
This is true Addey hits a long ball I still have a picture on my phone where he knobs his drive about 30 yards level with the ladies tee at Woodhall Spa
MadAdey
Money List Winner
So going on your theory I should use everything I have in the locker. I can actually show you if you do not believe how far I can hit the ball, I have the stats from when I got fitted for my driver and I just gave one of the swings 100%, it was out at 330 yards. But I normally swing well within myself and keep it at around the 280 mark as this gives me better accuracy.
This is true Addey hits a long ball I still have a picture on my phone where he knobs his drive about 30 yards level with the ladies tee at Woodhall Spa
Thanks Tony, some moments on the course are best left there 😭
MadAdey
Money List Winner
More with the interpretation to be honest. I do not believe for one minute that tour players and top coaches believe that always trying to get it down the hole as far as you can will reward you with better scores.
Region3
Ryder Cup Winner
Like I mentioned before, I have done some work with the numbers and will try to find them and give examples.
To be honest I'm still reeling that you said I was straight off the tee. :rofl:
badgermat
Club Champion
I don't think Brodie's point is that driving as far as you can will always score better. More that if you want to reduce your overall score - across a game or series of games - the most efficient way to do it is by focusing on the long game rather than the short game, and on driving in particular.
This is based on the stats suggesting that putting efficiency is overwhelmingly a factor of proximity to the pin, and proximity to the pin is similarly a function of proximity to the green.
i.e. most players putt more accurately from 1 metre than 6, and it's easier to land the ball 1 metre from the pin if they hit from 50 metres than if they hit from 150 metres.
Since this is based entirely on a statistical analysis, there are two fairly major caveats to this.
First that you have to consider the environments in which the stats were gathered. In Brodie's case it was predominantly from the US, where typical courses may well be rather different from the UK (I suspect more open and where the most punishing rough is more likely to be marked as OOB and therefore excluded from his conclusion).
Second is that any statistcally-based analysis looks at performance over many games, and there can easily be exceptions - many exceptions, even - that don't significantly alter the overall probabilities.
As humans we are wired to remember exceptions rather than the norm, and to focus on the extreme (extremely good or extremely bad). As such we tend to give exceptions considerably greater value than they actually deserve.
bm
