The Masters 2026

[sunshine]

But if you’re in, is it the easiest to win? It’s a small field and I always find looking at the field for some bets that it lacks a bit of depth - always find myself wishing there was a few more names.

Theoretically easier to win. But in reality we have the same group of contenders for every major, and all of them will be at every major (barring injury).

A large part of the field are just making up the numbers. The Masters has fewer people making up the numbers than the Open. It's been a long time since we had a shock winner of a major.

 

[sunshine]

Was literally typing about this as you posted Tiger has confirmed he’ll be playing tonight in the TGL, admittedly that’s not a full tournament round of golf but it does suggest he’s well enough to hit balls properly at speed. Does it raise the question of if he plays the Masters? Absolutely it does.

Since his car crash, it seems that walking the course for 4 days is his biggest challenge, not swinging a club. When he's played Augusta he's been pretty good on day 1, then deteriorated every day, limping his way round (literally).

TGL is his best option, unless he can get a buggy

 

[Lucifer MorningStar]

Since his car crash, it seems that walking the course for 4 days is his biggest challenge, not swinging a club. When he's played Augusta he's been pretty good on day 1, then deteriorated every day, limping his way round (literally).

TGL is his best option, unless he can get a buggy

He’s allowed to use a buggy on the Champions tour in regular season events and they allow medical exemptions in majors for them as well so that’s definitely open to him.

Saw a couple of last swing analysis videos of his recent TGL performance where they were trying to state his swings a mess and no what it was. No real decent evidence in those videos of anything wrong with his swing except for slightly less extension through the ball which is inevitable with a fused spine. He seems to swing it well just opened for enough to walk the course and then call it a day in his terms.

 

[CountLippe]

Theoretically easier to win. But in reality we have the same group of contenders for every major, and all of them will be at every major (barring injury).

A large part of the field are just making up the numbers. The Masters has fewer people making up the numbers than the Open. It's been a long time since we had a shock winner of a major.

Literally 2 majors ago.. JJ Spaun!

 

[Lucifer MorningStar]

Literally 2 majors ago.. JJ Spaun!

So long ago people forgot

Theoretically easier to win. But in reality we have the same group of contenders for every major, and all of them will be at every major (barring injury).

A large part of the field are just making up the numbers. The Masters has fewer people making up the numbers than the Open. It's been a long time since we had a shock winner of a major.

Recent history may disagree with you. Brian Harman, Wyndham Clarke, Matt Fitzpatrick pretty sure nobody saw them winning majors at the time. Hideki Matsuyama and his former going into his Masters win was patchy at best.

Pretty sure nobody thought Mickelson would win another major at 50years old when he won the PGA. All of those just since 2020!

 

[ADB]

If you haven’t yet downloaded the Masters App - it’s the best in the game - every single shot recorded.

In terms of results I think Scotty has been playing possum with us, he’ll definitely be up there with Bryson and Cam Young IMO.

 

[The Squirrel]

Literally 2 majors ago.. JJ Spaun!

So long ago people forgot
Recent history may disagree with you. Brian Harman, Wyndham Clarke, Matt Fitzpatrick pretty sure nobody saw them winning majors at the time. Hideki Matsuyama and his former going into his Masters win was patchy at best.

Pretty sure nobody thought Mickelson would win another major at 50years old when he won the PGA. All of those just since 2020!

What qualifies as a ‘shock’ win though? Anyone other than Scheffler or Rory? Anyone who has not won a major before? Anyone above 16/1 in the betting?

Take Spaun - he had multiple top 3 finishes prior to that in top events in 2025 including taking Rory to a playoff in the Players. Is someone routinely hovering round the very top of the big event leaderboards actually a ‘surprise’ winner?

 

[Lucifer MorningStar]

What qualifies as a ‘shock’ win though? Anyone other than Scheffler or Rory? Anyone who has not won a major before? Anyone above 16/1 in the betting?

Take Spaun - he had multiple top 3 finishes prior to that in top events in 2025 including taking Rory to a playoff in the Players. Is someone routinely hovering round the very top of the big event leaderboards actually a ‘surprise’ winner?

Surely it’s anyone seen as unlikely to be a Contender in majors I’d certainly say Spain is one of those names. Nobody saw that coming and nobody would be surprised if never won again.

 

[IanM]

Yeah, everyone on here lumped on JJ Spaun!

 

[The Squirrel]

Might be a shock for the individual but it’s not a shock in terms of result.

Take this year’s betting market. As it stands on Betfair, everyone from Min Woo Lee downwards (that’s my cutoff line for ‘surprise or shock’ winner - it’s Lowry and Hovland above that neither of whom would qualify in the shock category for me).

There’s a lot of unlikely names there, but in total all of them together have a 40% chance of winning (reversing odds into probabilities).

That’s a greater chance than any one of Scottie OR Rory OR Bryson winning.

The underdogs (as a team) are the favourite to win.

What I’m saying is that ‘unlikely’ winners are tremendously likely to happen - because there are a LOT of them in the field and each one has a chance higher than zero. It therefore can’t come as a surprise when one of them wins.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

If you haven’t yet downloaded the Masters App - it’s the best in the game - every single shot recorded.

In terms of results I think Scotty has been playing possum with us, he’ll definitely be up there with Bryson and Cam Young IMO.

His wife is due to give birth at any moment. He's pulled out of this weeks tournament just in case she goes into labour. Not sure his head will quite be in the right space.

 

[D-S]

Might be a shock for the individual but it’s not a shock in terms of result.

Take this year’s betting market. As it stands on Betfair, everyone from Min Woo Lee downwards (that’s my cutoff line for ‘surprise or shock’ winner - it’s Lowry and Hovland above that neither of whom would qualify in the shock category for me).

There’s a lot of unlikely names there, but in total all of them together have a 40% chance of winning (reversing odds into probabilities).

That’s a greater chance than any one of Scottie OR Rory OR Bryson winning.

The underdogs (as a team) are the favourite to win.

What I’m saying is that ‘unlikely’ winners are tremendously likely to happen - because there are a LOT of them in the field and each one has a chance higher than zero. It therefore can’t come as a surprise when one of them wins.

I guess the smaller the field (Masters 87-99 players since 2000) the fewer ‘less likely’ winners. The greater the field (e.g. The Open 156 players) the more the ‘less likely’ winners.

 

[Lucifer MorningStar]

His wife is due to give birth at any moment. He's pulled out of this weeks tournament just in case she goes into labour. Not sure his head will quite be in the right space.

I mean he won after literally being arrested on the way to the tournament before and wasn’t his wife die to give birth before during major and he won that as well. I don’t think his state of mind is an issue to be fair.

 

[Arthur Wedge]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2037167846157946944

This will be a good watch

 

[Lord Tyrion]

I mean he won after literally being arrested on the way to the tournament before and wasn’t his wife die to give birth before during major and he won that as well. I don’t think his state of mind is an issue to be fair.

I can easily see how he can compartmentalise the arrest but family is a tougher one. Easy to look after just yourself but you naturally worry about family.

I don't know about the previous birth. Fair play if he won straight after. He does seem mentally very strong.

 

[Mel Smooth]

Colin Morikawa subject to his back injury might be worth a sniff.

The best golfer in the world this year using the datagolf model is Jon Rahm.

Scheffler will be in the vicinity of the top places, family distractions or not.

I just can't see Rory going back to back.

Ludvig has to put a tournament together sooner or later...

I'm sure we'll have an entertaining 4 days of golf.

 

[Arthur Wedge]

Can see it being a first winner this year

Someone like

Young
Bhatia
Tommy

Hovland is bubbling away

The course is suited perfectly for Aberg

 

[D-S]

Just realised that I’m on holiday in Morocco when the Masters is on, I’m mildly irked but not as much as I would have been 10 years ago or so.

 

[Crazyface]

I think Rorys win last year will have removed the pressure and he will be close this year. He'll smack it round for fun, and crumbs can he smack it! The winner? God knows. I'd like to pick three that finish high enough for my bet on them to pay out for once.

 

[sunshine]

Literally 2 majors ago.. JJ Spaun!

er no. JJ Spaun was definitely not a shock, he was the form player on tour going into that US Open.