Handicap and what you should expect to know it round in

[rosecott]

Due to weather have only managed two of my 3 cards so far and best is looking at being +7 of ssc of 70 as was off the yellows. Handicap sec knows I was off 3 in NZ and Captain has suggested having seen me play that 5 would be good, so they may well set at a lower figure as I belive they can do under Congu guidelines.
If I do get a 7 I'm going to have some fun hopefully.

With a bit of luck, the County Union will see sense and start you off as a Cat 1.

 

[upsidedown]

With a bit of luck, the County Union will see sense and start you off as a Cat 1.

Would not be displeased with that

 

[lyden]

Yeah that's good to know because if I get say a +10, I have nothing to lose by playing more aggressive next time out. I was always under the impression your handicap was you on an average day.

 

[duncan mackie]

I was always under the impression your handicap was you on an average day.

think more in terms of 'a pretty good day', but you are also expected to have 'really good days' and on those you do better than your handicap and get back a few of those pesky 0.1s for failing to make your buffer

 

[Foxholer]

Handicap secretary told me that on average in comps you should expect to knock it round in handicap + 1/4 x handicap + 1.5

So for me off 12 I shouild expect on average my medals cards to be 12 + 3 + 1.5 = 16.5

Our club has done an analysis of all of last year's medal cards and that little algorithm appears to be pretty much spot on. Further for me in stableford my average golf should then see me with 32 pts - which for me (and probaly many of us) is about right. Stresses how the handicap system is aimed at giving us a handicap that is a stretch target for us - reflecting how well we can play - not how we should expect to play.

The analysis was done to support moving from 3/4 handicap to full handicap difference in singles matchplay.

But the above is apropos not very much at all except that I found it interesting (but I am a mathematician) as it tells me that to get my handicap down from 12 to 9 I have to be knocking it around in 13 (9+2.25+1.5) on average in medals (1 over my 12 handicap so in the zone) - because in that average will (hopefully) be the 3 or 4 under that will start to bring my handicap down.

Actually, the formula is 1.237*End of year h'cap +1.57 - that should be within 0.05 of average Medal score above CSS. (1)

At least you H/Sec is aware of one of the changes introduced in 2008 - Annual Review Report (ARR). That was the same time that Congu Required Singles Matchplay to be off Full Handicap. It was the Scottish Union that had done 'a lot of work on this' (2)

As the club, like every other one, should also have been using the ARR each year since to highlight possible candidates for adjustment, I would absolutely expect they would have run one on last year's comps - and that the results would be pretty much spot on - merely highlighting the 'anomolies' to check.

I think you have your wires (equations?) crossed somewhat about what, and whose, analysis prompted/supported what.

In true academic style, I'll list my sources.

(1) http://www.congu.com/faqs/old_site/Review of Handicaps.pdf

(2) http://www.congu.com/faqs/appendix F.pdf

 

[granters]

Would not be displeased with that

My last club lost my handicap cards! I went out in a medal and shot 77 o they gave me 5 based on that.CSS was 72 that day,and I told them my last handicap was 5. They always err on the side of caution in my opinion so id expect you to be cat 1 at least

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

???

For affiliated clubs, the full difference in singles matchplay has been mandatory since 2008.

Sorry - never got back on this earlier - yes we have been full handicap difference since 2008, but there are still low handicapper grumblings about it. The Handicap Sec. just did the analysis 9he didn;t come up with the formula btw). He also analysed all competitions winners and low handicappers in our place generally win more than other handicap groups.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

interesting formula, i think the only it might break down is depending on the variance in the golfer's score.
if you scored 16.5 in every round, you're handicap would go up, so i wonder what sort of variance they're factoring in for the average golfer. on a good day a 12 handicap could go round in 8 over?.......or if it's just a formaula that roughly works

They are not factoring in any variance. The variance is in the scores. So for me off 12 let's say in 6 comps I play relative to my handicap: three in +4; two in +5 and one -4. Average +4.5 = 16.5. What happens to my handicap over these four rounds +0.2+0.2+0.1-0.8=-0.3

So even although on average I am playing 4.5 shots over my handicap - my handicap has come down 0.3 - so handicap is edging towards my best scores - even when I only play one round out of six under my handicap.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Just done a quick check on HDID stats pages and my average for all comps since Oct/2010 is 81.8 (SSS 72), for the last year my average is 81.1, for the last 6 months is was 79.7

Not sure that helps at all with understanding how accurate your formula is

OK - so let's assume that for the last six months your handicap has been 5.5. The little formula would suggest that your average medal score would be 5.5+1.4+1.5 = 8.4

So guiven SSS of 72 your average score over the last six months would be 72+8.4=80.4

...so your actual average of 79.7 to nearest integer is 80 and your predicted of 80.4 rounded to nearest integer is 80. Hmmm. Even not rounding that's not bad.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

And so if I continue to play to around my handicap (as I currently managing to do).

x+x/4+1.5=12
(1+0.25)x=12
x=12/1.25
x=9.6

which is darned near my target of 9.4 for the year. There is hope

Just giotta get a few sub net-par rounds in - therein lies the wee problemo. Prediction suggests I can do it - but gotta do it fof real.

 

[MashieNiblick]

And so if I continue to play to around my handicap (as I currently managing to do).

x+x/4+1.5=12
(1+0.25)x=12
x=12/1.25
x=9.6

which is darned near my target of 9.4 for the year. There is hope

Just giotta get a few sub net-par rounds in - therein lies the wee problemo. Prediction suggests I can do it - but gotta do it fof real.

The funny thing is though that if you were really consistent and played to your handicap every time you would stay on 12.

Play slightly better and you will chip away at it with the odd .2s but to get a good cut what you need is just 1 or 2 really good rounds then it doesn't matter if the rest is rubbish.

As suggested by your earlier post (#28) the h/c system can often reward inconsistency rather than consistency, and the formula is based on how players actually score and the fact that we aren't actually very consistent.

 

[Backsticks]

It scotches the idea that you should on average play to your handicap. If you do then it would seem that, arguably, your handicap is too high.

Is it not stronger than that, with no arguably about it. If you play on average to your handcap, unless it is a short term transient phase, then you are you not a bandit ?

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Is it not stronger than that, with no arguably about it. If you play on average to your handcap, unless it is a short term transient phase, then you are you not a bandit ?

The statistics would tend to suggest this to be the case. However maybe you are just incapable (a bit like me at the moment) of shooting a good bit under your handicap - I did it once last year (6 under) - the rest of my medals were over handicap - so I did once swift drop followed by a gradual drift back up to where I had started. In a match I won on Tuesday evening 7/6 against a 4 handicapper, he thought my general play was closer to my best ever handicap of 6 rather than 12. So I know that my 9.4 target is not unrealistic despite last year's inability to get it round under handicap - so I go into the year with hope and a realistic target - but absolutely no expectation.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

The funny thing is though that if you were really consistent and played to your handicap every time you would stay on 12.

True - though the stats say that if you play regularly to your handicap then at some point lady luck will stay with you all way round and you'll shoot well under - because we can are only in control of so much of our score - luck and bad luck are huge contributors we can manage, but not control.

 

[Foxholer]

If you are serious about finding info about scoring and handicaps, this site has a load of great info!

http://www.popeofslope.com/

Created some time ago by the guy that developed the Slope system - Dean Knuth.

All relative to the USGA system (ie. everywhere but UK - and maybe arguably South Africa), but same issues mean relevant everywhere.