EU Referendum

[SocketRocket]

I am tired of the stuff that is mud slinging from both end. Leave did not get the economic consequence (or puts a brave face on it). Remain is sore but cant do anything about. The last few days we have been trying to see options and impacts for us and clients and how we keep jobs going etc. The reality is that it will lead to uncertainty which no one likes. You will see plans being put on hold (Siemens in Hull), jobs moving (HSBC) and others. Cameron played a great hand by not invoking Article 50. Whoever gets the crown will either be responsible for either breaking up the country and more economic misery or risk alienating the 50% who voted Leave. No wonder Boris was a deflated D-bag in his victory speech.

Anyways, a week on from the vote, the emerging view of the potential scenario (IMO) is that
1) UK will exit but will want to get access to free markets. The WTO option is not what the UK wants as it will not help the country
2) EU will like to make an example of it but cant afford UK to leave. So in exchange of free access to markets will ask for free movement of labour
3) The compromise position will be that UK gets access to EU market and EU will get free labour movement for existing or original EU countries.

So Brexiters can claim victory that stopped the Turkey influx (which was unlikely) and got access to markets. However, in reality not much changes on the immigration front, we still have to abide by EU regulations as we need to trade with them. It will reduce our contribution to the EU fund from £350m(??) per week BUT we lose all our opportunities to veto or control anything within the EU like we can do today.

Before everyone throws knives at me, I am not saying this is an official position but looks like the most likely scenario and it WILL be painful to get there. My friend knows this week if she has a job - she voted leave and works for a small family owned importing firm and they cant afford the drop in GBP. But as one of the Brexiter told me, I asked her grow a couple and move on, the mortgage will sort itself.

Keep Calm and see how the dust settles. The markets and sterling are doing much better than expected, it's early days and much can be achieved in the long time span negotiations will take.

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Ummmm! The EU doesn't have any money, it only uses the money taxpayers give them, The money England gets is some of it's money being given back, I thought you would understand that.

You talk as if on a certain day two years hence all trade with EU countries will stop, do you really believe that will happen? 'Cut yourselves off" what do you mean by that, it's a ludicrous thing to say.

The worst case scenario would be that we reverted to WTO rules whereby tariffs of around 4% could be used by the EU but if we also applied them then who would be worse off by this, I would suggest the one who sells the most.

Please read the post I was quoting which was in response to Crazyface rant

Maybe just once take a step back and look at all the posts instead of charging in like a bull in a china shop - either that or you are just selectively reading posts.

Crazyface said England get no money from the EU - clearly they do in regards grants from the EU for many things - I know where the money comes from - that wasn't up for debate

Crazyface said that we shouldn't buy a thing from the EU - clearly that is one of the most ludicrous things said. I didn't once suggest "cut yourself off"

Please just once look at the post I was responding to.

I know you are on a mission to ensure your theory that it's all going to be ok is going to happen but I think it's time you realised that people have genuine worries for the future that you can't answer - finances and businesses in this nation are already being affected by what has happened and people will rightly be worried for the future- if you don't understand that now I don't think you ever will and being honest I don't think you really care if it goes wrong

 

[One Planer]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36656980

 

[Rooter]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36656980

LOL maybe if the Scots said Andy Murray was European that could sway it...

 

[SocketRocket]

Please read the post I was quoting which was in response to Crazyface rant

Maybe just once take a step back and look at all the posts instead of charging in like a bull in a china shop - either that or you are just selectively reading posts.

Crazyface said England get no money from the EU - clearly they do in regards grants from the EU for many things - I know where the money comes from - that wasn't up for debate

Crazyface said that we shouldn't buy a thing from the EU - clearly that is one of the most ludicrous things said. I didn't once suggest "cut yourself off"

Please just once look at the post I was responding to.

I know you are on a mission to ensure your theory that it's all going to be ok is going to happen but I think it's time you realised that people have genuine worries for the future that you can't answer - finances and businesses in this nation are already being affected by what has happened and people will rightly be worried for the future- if you don't understand that now I don't think you ever will and being honest I don't think you really care if it goes wrong

I understand the picture and concerns that many have, understanding concerns doesn't mean you have to agree they are probabilities though. I cant see the point of all this negativity going on, If the vote had been to Remain then I would have been disappointed and accepted the decision, but not screaming it was undemocratic or looking for ways to create divisions in the country.

Of course I don't want it to go wrong, thats ridiculous, when I believe in something then I cant be doing with negative thinking and looking back over shoulders, 'a faint heart never won a fair ladies heart', 'You've got to accentuate the positive
Eliminate the negative, Latch on to the affirmative and don't mess with Mister In-Between'. British people pick them selves up, brush themselves down and get on with it. I expect that will trigger Article 50 of the Yurt Dwellers and Yogurt Eating populous displeasure buy 'Hey Ho' what doesn't

 

[Doon frae Troon]

There is a very easy way out of this.
English MP starts a private members bill to remove England and Wales from the Union Act.
56+ votes will win it.
Everybody happy.

BTW why are England & Wales so desperate to keep Scotland in the UK [again] ?

 

[SocketRocket]

There is a very easy way out of this.
English MP starts a private members bill to remove England and Wales from the Union Act.
56+ votes will win it.
Everybody happy.

BTW why are England & Wales so desperate to keep Scotland in the UK [again] ?

No, we only want you to go

 

[Hacker Khan]

Ummmm! The EU doesn't have any money, it only uses the money taxpayers give them, The money England gets is some of it's money being given back, I thought you would understand that.

You talk as if on a certain day two years hence all trade with EU countries will stop, do you really believe that will happen? 'Cut yourselves off" what do you mean by that, it's a ludicrous thing to say.

The worst case scenario would be that we reverted to WTO rules whereby tariffs of around 4% could be used by the EU but if we also applied them then who would be worse off by this, I would suggest the one who sells the most.

I know I've posted this several times already but the tarrifs are mostly a non story. Go to around 16 mins for a better explanation of the trade bit

[video=youtube_share;USTypBKEd8Y]https://youtu.be/USTypBKEd8Y[/video]

 

[Deleted member 15344]

I understand the picture and concerns that many have, understanding concerns doesn't mean you have to agree they are probabilities though. I cant see the point of all this negativity going on, If the vote had been to Remain then I would have been disappointed and accepted the decision, but not screaming it was undemocratic or looking for ways to create divisions in the country.

Of course I don't want it to go wrong, thats ridiculous, when I believe in something then I cant be doing with negative thinking and looking back over shoulders, 'a faint heart never won a fair ladies heart', 'You've got to accentuate the positive
Eliminate the negative, Latch on to the affirmative, Don't mess with Mister In-Between'. British people pick them selves up, brush themselves down and get on with it. I expect that will trigger Article 50 of the Yurt Dwellers and Yogurt Eating populous displeasure buy 'Hey Ho' what doesn't

A lot of people will be feeling negative right now because that's the reaction that is being seen within financial markets and within certain businesses and the reactions of the rest of Europe - there also seems an amount of people who were fully unaware of what the aftermath that could possibly happen and how it could affect local businesses that deal with the EU in any shape or form. We can all think that we are in a strong position and we hold all the cards but it's possible that our position isn't as strong as we think and the affect could damage the nation further.

Right now any damage that is being caused is all because of the knee jerk reaction - the stock markets are getting hit , the pound is getting hit and that will transfer onto your average person in the street - then you have the image that is being damaged right now , all the racist attacks being highlight are putting the nation in a poor light around the world - that will have an affect. Then the reactions of the Scottish , N Irish and even Gibralter are having a damaging affect of us being a "United" Kingdom

When outsiders look in at us they won't see a "strong United Nation" ready to show its hand and become a big voice on its on without the need of the EU - they see a nation split in two and fighting on both sides

For a good number of people the positives of us leaving the EU are minuscule compared to the negatives and the reaction seems to me to show that amount of people isn't a small number

 

[User62651]

LOL maybe if the Scots said Andy Murray was European that could sway it...

?? Murray is a European LOL!
Nicola has an agenda yes but many in England will wish her well, maybe even admire her, for showing leadership and trying to build bridges so doing something in the face of what the bumpkin shire folks of England have done to the UKs standing in the world and how it will be viewed.
Most likely any Brexit deal will be negotiated so we're officially out of the EU but we'll effectively still be in the EU in all but name like Norway in EEA, little will change, just a face saving exercise for Boris and co. Will be a 5 year waste of time process.

 

[BubbaP]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36660133

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36665685

Maybe we just have to wait and see...

 

[Fish]

Something rotten in Luxemburg.....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36662636

 

[ColchesterFC]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36660133

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36665685

Maybe we just have to wait and see...

Can't help but think that there will be several from the Remain camp that will be very disappointed by seeing those stories as their predictions of a financial apocalypse seem to be faltering already. I wonder if any of the people that were saying that 2 trillion pounds had been lost in the wake of the Leave vote will be coming out and saying that we have now gained most of it back?

 

[Foxholer]

Here's a (classically neutral BBC approach) link that should be read in conjunction with those IamP posted - and commented upon by Colchester!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36661918

 

[sawtooth]

The brilliant post from a Guardian commentator.. in case folks havent read it..

====

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

A brilliant piece of fiction I agree.

 

[full_throttle]

Listening to the news today it appears EU leaders have held a meeting without the UK, and there will be another in September again without the UK.

My question is, Is this legal? Until article 50 in invoked, are we not still part of the EU?

 

[Hobbit]

Everyone is banging on about the 73% of young people voting remain, however they also fail to mention the 36% turnout. It's hardly the majority of young people who are being victimised like they make out. Being 21, I see the young moaners first hand, and they seem to me to be following the remain trend as it is "Cool" at the minute.

Careful, you're being too responsible posting accurate, sensible stuff.

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Any ideas if this is true ?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-legal-legislation-constitution-a7105181.html

Does a bill need to be created to leave the EU and then do the MP's vote on it ?

 

[ColchesterFC]

Here's a (classically neutral BBC approach) link that should be read in conjunction with those IamP posted - and commented upon by Colchester!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36661918

There's a lot in that article that I don't understand, including the ratings cut, the quote by Paddy Ashdown and then the figures on borrowing. Ashdown is saying that if borrowing costs go up by 0.5% then it will cost double the equivalent of our EU contributions to finance the debt and the ratings agencies have cut our credit rating which should put up interest rates but on government bonds they have dropped meaning it's actually cheaper to borrow for some reason????? And we need to wait until the Q2 growth figures are out until we find out what has actually happened.

FTSE100 and FTSE250 I'm sure will settle down once the money men have finished their gambling and making money from it all.

Weaker pound good for exports and foreign tourists coming to the UK.

 

[BubbaP]

Here's a (classically neutral BBC approach) link that should be read in conjunction with those IamP posted - and commented upon by Colchester!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36661918

Hey, who is this "IamP" ?
Just stick an exclamation mark in after the a, as a Foxy post with just one ! is well below the Foxy average :thup: