EU Referendum

[SocketRocket]

I'm suspecting very strongly that a large minority - if not a majority - of those who will vote to leave will vote on grounds of 'immigration'. And so I am wondering what the 'acceptable' level of immigration for all of those folks actually is. If we accept that many current non-EU immigrants living in the UK will vote Leave because they are upset with the EU because the UK limits the non-EU immigration (see Indian/Pakistani communities in particular) - then we might as well take as our starting point 188,000 non-EU (latest figures). Maybe add 15% to meet those non-EU expectations - takes us to about 215,000.

Then we add the EU immigration for 'essential' skilled workers. How many is that? - I have no idea how many of the last count of EU immigration would have met the criteria - but given my wife was treated in a Private Hospital last two days by three brilliant Romanian nurses and a large minority if not majority seemed to be EU immigrants - I'm guessing quite a lot, so I'll guess maybe 25% of EU immigrants (184,000) would meet Australian points system type criteria - and we need them, so that's getting on for 46,000. And that brings our total to 261,000.

So Leavers with a concern over immigration - how does 261,000 a year sound?

And if you don't like the sound of it what is your number and how do you get to it?

You don't seem to get this points system, let me explain it to you.

It's not about simply setting how many points someone needs to get in then letting in everyone who has enough points. You start off by looking at what skill requirements you have in a particular year and how many then deciding on numbers based on that, it may be 50,000 or it may be 350,000. You then apply your points to the people with the required skills up to this number. You don't just allow any number of EU citizens to come just because they are EU citizens though, thats uncontrolled immigration and not good for the country.

It's no different to the way a Company would employ people. Can you imagine a company in Gloucestershire that had a requirement for 50 new employees this year and interviewing people for the jobs based on their skills and abilities but letting anyone from Wiltshire have a job irrespective of skill and ability because the Boss likes Wiltshire people.

 

[SocketRocket]

there is a social housing crisis because Thatcher instigated the right to buy scheme and the current government wish to continue it by forcing housing associations to sell of their stock to the occupiers.

I think you will find that the right to buy was started under Labour in the 1970's

 

[bluewolf]

Edit.... Sorry, decided I CBA with this discussion anymore.

 

[Old Skier]

there is a social housing crisis because Thatcher instigated the right to buy scheme and the current government wish to continue it by forcing housing associations to sell of their stock to the occupiers.

Your obviously blinded by your hatred of anything Tory or am I mistaken when I think that Labour have been in Government since Lady T and did nothing to change the system.

Nice to know you have balanced opinions.

 

[TerryA]

Sorry my friend but the infrastructure cannot cope.
A small example - Boston in Lincolnshire - Insufficient schools, Not enough GP's, etc. There are just too many people already on this small island.

By the way, not sure about your 'young people' theory, both my son & daughter and their partners are all voting leave and they are all under 30.

 

[Fish]

Your obviously blinded by your hatred of anything Tory .

You only just picked up on that...

 

[Hacker Khan]

Sorry my friend but the infrastructure cannot cope.
A small example - Boston in Lincolnshire - Insufficient schools, Not enough GP's, etc. There are just too many people already on this small island.

By the way, not sure about your 'young people' theory, both my son & daughter and their partners are all voting leave and they are all under 30.

So who would do all the agricultural work traditionally done by immigrants on minimum wage at best, if we do not allow the immigrants in? Isn't places like Bernard Matthews farms completely staffed by EU immigrants?

It's fine saying 'we would force those British people on benefits to do it' but in reality is that going to happen without a whole scale change in our benefits system? Which with the best will in the world, ain't going to happen.

 

[Fyldewhite]

I think you will find that the right to buy was started under Labour in the 1970's

Not really......... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_to_Buy

 

[IanG]

Er... The EU simply stated that they would not negotiate! And that if Switzerland implemented quotas, then many bilateral agreements, that are linked to the freedom of movement concept, and are advantageous to Switzerland, would be frozen! There's now a movement (that has raised sufficient popularity) to have another referendum to overrule the one 'rejected' by the EU. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-swiss-eu-idUSKCN0SL27C20151027

I think we're sort of agreeing here . By hook or by crook the wheels are in motion which will result in the Swiss anti-immigration referendum outcome not being implemented long term.

I can well see a similar (but different and hard to precisely predict) scenario playing out in the UK if there is a narrow Brexit win. I guess we'll see in 2 years time if I'm right!

 

[Doon frae Troon]

So who would do all the agricultural work traditionally done by immigrants on minimum wage at best, if we do not allow the immigrants in? Isn't places like Bernard Matthews farms completely staffed by EU immigrants?

It's fine saying 'we would force those British people on benefits to do it' but in reality is that going to happen without a whole scale change in our benefits system? Which with the best will in the world, ain't going to happen.

Och there you go introducing common sense to the debate again, will you never learn:lol:

As well as the East of England agricultural businesses the Highland [Scottish] hospitality industry would not survive without our Eastern European friends. Bearing in mind that there is very low levels of unemployment in the Highlands and traveling to work is not an option for many.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

You don't seem to get this points system, let me explain it to you.

It's not about simply setting how many points someone needs to get in then letting in everyone who has enough points. You start off by looking at what skill requirements you have in a particular year and how many then deciding on numbers based on that, it may be 50,000 or it may be 350,000. You then apply your points to the people with the required skills up to this number. You don't just allow any number of EU citizens to come just because they are EU citizens though, thats uncontrolled immigration and not good for the country.

It's no different to the way a Company would employ people. Can you imagine a company in Gloucestershire that had a requirement for 50 new employees this year and interviewing people for the jobs based on their skills and abilities but letting anyone from Wiltshire have a job irrespective of skill and ability because the Boss likes Wiltshire people.

I absolutely understand a points system for immigration - but I'm not so clear how that matches with the expectations of no-EU (largely commonwealth) citizens expectation that leaving the EU will enable more non-EU citizens to come to the UK - as that is what they are being told. Last year 188,000 non-EU citizens came to the UK. Do you expect that number to fall? Because that's not what is expected - in fact existing non-EU community expect the number to increase.

And do we expect to be able to fill all skilled positions from the non-EU community. Well I suspect that the UK gov would not discriminate between EU and non-EU looking to fill skilled positions. And so we will have many 10s of thousands of EU citizerns filling these roles. And so it goes on.

And the question remains about absolute numbers - and it should be answered. How many is acceptable? Because very many advocating Leaving on immigration grounds do so on the basis of numbers and pressure on infrastructure. If we need 250,000 immigrants a year then that will maintain pressure on infrastructure. If we only need 50,000 a year to cover essential roles then there are going to be a lot of very upset existing Commonwealth community,

And eventually a lot of the 'mass' of EU citizens working in the UK will return home. Like the Romanian nurses we were speaking with yesterday - the are going to return to Romania - if not in the next 5-10 yrs (which many will), then for when they retire (interesting that as they won't be creating the 'retired' burden Leavers complain about). And so in 20yrs time there will be a significant loss of skilled labour as these folks return to their home country - mirrored by an increase in the need for skilled overseas recruitment - and so immigration goes up again.

So then - just for the immediate term - to take pressure off the NHS and other public services, housing etc, and a number that our public services can use for planning purposes - can a Leaver tell me what level of immigration is acceptable. What is the number?

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Sorry my friend but the infrastructure cannot cope.
A small example - Boston in Lincolnshire - Insufficient schools, Not enough GP's, etc. There are just too many people already on this small island.

By the way, not sure about your 'young people' theory, both my son & daughter and their partners are all voting leave and they are all under 30.

Fair enough - so what's your number for acceptable net immigration?

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Och there you go introducing common sense to the debate again, will you never learn:lol:

As well as the East of England agricultural businesses the Highland [Scottish] hospitality industry would not survive without our Eastern European friends. Bearing in mind that there is very low levels of unemployment in the Highlands and traveling to work is not an option for many.

And as a fella in the South-West said on TV earlier. Almost everything in the South-West depends upon the immigrant community to keep going. And that isn't limited to 'skilled' jobs.

And with unemployment at an 8yr low it seems to me that 1) not that many immigrants are claiming unemployment benefit 2) there is not a huge number of the indigenous population sitting around twiddling their thumbs and angry that immigrants have taken 'their' jobs.

 

[SocketRocket]

I absolutely understand a points system for immigration - but I'm not so clear how that matches with the expectations of no-EU (largely commonwealth) citizens expectation that leaving the EU will enable more non-EU citizens to come to the UK - as that is what they are being told. Last year 188,000 non-EU citizens came to the UK. Do you expect that number to fall? Because that's not what is expected - in fact existing non-EU community expect the number to increase.

And do we expect to be able to fill all skilled positions from the non-EU community. Well I suspect that the UK gov would not discriminate between EU and non-EU looking to fill skilled positions. And so we will have many 10s of thousands of EU citizerns filling these roles. And so it goes on.

And the question remains about absolute numbers - and it should be answered. How many is acceptable? Because very many advocating Leaving on immigration grounds do so on the basis of numbers and pressure on infrastructure. If we need 250,000 immigrants a year then that will maintain pressure on infrastructure. If we only need 50,000 a year to cover essential roles then there are going to be a lot of very upset existing Commonwealth community,

And eventually a lot of the 'mass' of EU citizens working in the UK will return home. Like the Romanian nurses we were speaking with yesterday - the are going to return to Romania - if not in the next 5-10 yrs (which many will), then for when they retire (interesting that as they won't be creating the 'retired' burden Leavers complain about). And so in 20yrs time there will be a significant loss of skilled labour as these folks return to their home country - mirrored by an increase in the need for skilled overseas recruitment - and so immigration goes up again.

So then - just for the immediate term - to take pressure off the NHS and other public services, housing etc, and a number that our public services can use for planning purposes - can a Leaver tell me what level of immigration is acceptable. What is the number?

It seems a bit futile trying to explain as you just repeat the same points you did before; ignoring what you have been told.

I explained to you that the numbers for immigration would need to be considered annually based on the needs at the time and the effect on infrastructure would take a part in deciding the numbers. We already have a great number of people from inside and outside the EU doing jobs here, they don't all go home every year and need replacing so we only need numbers to fulfill needs for the current term. I hope you can understand that now!

 

[Hacker Khan]

I see both the leave and in campaign have suspended campaigning today as a mark of respect for the MP that is in a critical condition after being shot and stabbed. How about we follow suit?

 

[Fish]

I see both the leave and in campaign have suspended campaigning today as a mark of respect for the MP that is in a critical condition after being shot and stabbed. How about we follow suit?

Good call 👍

 

[drdel]

^^^ Over reaction - it may be unrelated to the Referendum!

The confusing reports I've seen seems to indicate she may have stepped into an already heated arguments. That's not to say it isn't a tragic event causes by nutter and I hope she survives and recovers

 

[Hacker Khan]

^^^ Over reaction - it may be unrelated to the Referendum!

The confusing reports I've seen seems to indicate she may have stepped into an already heated arguments. That's not to say it isn't a tragic event causes by nutter and I hope she survives and recovers

I suspect politicians do not have the heart to campaign and regurgitate the same old arguments when one of their fellow MPs is fighting for their lives after being shot. A nice show of compassion by both campaigns I think. Whether she was campaigning on the EU referendum or not at the time is probably irrelevant.

 

[MegaSteve]

I see both the leave and in campaign have suspended campaigning today as a mark of respect for the MP that is in a critical condition after being shot and stabbed. How about we follow suit?

Spot on...

 

[Hobbit]

There's an excellent balanced piece by Simon Jenkins in today's Guardian. He neither shouts in or out. He critiques both campaigns, and gives an opinion on the EU in general.

Best bit of journalism I've seen for a while.