EU Referendum

[IanG]

Anyone else think that if the result is BREXIT but by a narrow margin, say 53-47 or less, that some euro-fudge will evolve which means the UK ultimately will not leave the EU?

There is nothing I have more confidence in Brussels about than their ability to play the long fudging game. What shape the fudge will take is beyond my pay-grade but I have a sneaking suspicion that tactics will be deployed to obfuscate until a better climate means a re-run is plausible.

It has happened several times before - Ireland over Lisbon, and more recently the Swiss referendum over immigration which has been sidestepped.

 

[User62651]

Anyone else think that if the result is BREXIT but by a narrow margin, say 53-47 or less, that some euro-fudge will evolve which means the UK ultimately will not leave the EU?

There is nothing I have more confidence in Brussels about than their ability to play the long fudging game. What shape the fudge will take is beyond my pay-grade but I have a sneaking suspicion that tactics will be deployed to obfuscate until a better climate means a re-run is plausible.

It has happened several times before - Ireland over Lisbon, and more recently the Swiss referendum over immigration which has been sidestepped.

No, if Brexit wins by even 1% there is no way it'll get fudged, feelings run so deep on this one that they have to stand by the result and push it through, this issue has been rumbling since the 1990s and needs settled. Let's hope that if it does go remain we don't have to endure another smug Cameron walking ten feet tall and he can offer some humility and sensible words to try and heal wide divisions, unlike post Indyref 21 months ago. If it does go Brexit then he needs to recognise he's a lame duck and resign within 6 months.

 

[MegaSteve]

Anyone else think that if the result is BREXIT but by a narrow margin, say 53-47 or less, that some euro-fudge will evolve which means the UK ultimately will not leave the EU?

Don't believe we'll be separating unless it's truly a landslide vote to exit...
And, that looks most unlikely...


And, seeing your avatar, reminds me, I really must get to Scotland at least one more time...

 

[Pro Zach]

Picard? Riker is for brexit then?

Picard moved to remain after he was assimilated by the Borg. Whereas Riker was very much against being part of the collective. Resistance is not futile - vote leave on the 23rd.

 

[FairwayDodger]

Picard moved to remain after he was assimilated by the Borg. Whereas Riker was very much against being part of the collective. Resistance is not futile - vote leave on the 23rd.

Darmok and Jalad at Tanagra!

 

[IanG]

Darmok and Jalad at Tanagra!

Oh, not that old chestnut

 

[Foxholer]

Anyone else think that if the result is BREXIT but by a narrow margin, say 53-47 or less, that some euro-fudge will evolve which means the UK ultimately will not leave the EU?

There is nothing I have more confidence in Brussels about than their ability to play the long fudging game. What shape the fudge will take is beyond my pay-grade but I have a sneaking suspicion that tactics will be deployed to obfuscate until a better climate means a re-run is plausible.

It has happened several times before - Ireland over Lisbon, and more recently the Swiss referendum over immigration which has been sidestepped.

While I believe there's merit in what you state, Ireland over Lisbon resulted in some guarantees from the EU that appeared to be sufficient swing the vote in the subsequent 2nd referendum. This sort of 'compromise' might be attempted if the vote was marginally 'Out'. However, the EU has declined/refused to negotiate with Switzerland on the subject of immigration (the Swiss referendum was about whether the Swiss government should attempt to negotiate with the EU about immigration). As this also appears to be the biggest issue for the UK, I very much doubt there'd be any fundamental movement by the EU in the area of 'freedom of movement'!

 

[CheltenhamHacker]

I'm voting 'leave'
All the arguments are based on supposition - this might happen, that might happen. I say it might not.
What is for certain is that we do not have the infrastructure to cope with the number of people living here right now so I do not want this to get worse.

a) your argument around the infrastructure isn't a fact, sorry.

b) I quite enjoy that your personal "i say it might not" holds such sway for you. Unless you're hiding some significant political/economic/business qualifications, then your certainty in your own opinion is exactly why the population shouldn't vote on matters like this. People (and i include myself and everyone on this thread) think they can absorb the full impact and come to a decision, when actually it's based on a number of personal assumptions/prejudices.



In a side point not related to the poster above, it's depressing me that the "older" generation could swing the vote against the desires of the youth. the youth will be living through the outcome for a significantly longer time period, and surely if they wish to see the country remain part of the EU then that's the important thing. People have constantly noted this is an ideological thing, not just an immigration, so surely the youth ideology should be prevalent as part of that.

 

[FairwayDodger]

In a side point not related to the poster above, it's depressing me that the "older" generation could swing the vote against the desires of the youth. the youth will be living through the outcome for a significantly longer time period, and surely if they wish to see the country remain part of the EU then that's the important thing. People have constantly noted this is an ideological thing, not just an immigration, so surely the youth ideology should be prevalent as part of that.

This point was often made about the Scottish independence referendum. It was nonsense then and it's nonsense now. All votes are equal, otherwise what's the point?

 

[CheltenhamHacker]

This point was often made about the Scottish independence referendum. It was nonsense then and it's nonsense now. All votes are equal, otherwise what's the point?

Hmmm, that's true I guess. It's just my gut reaction. Was the youth of Scotland voting out then?

 

[FairwayDodger]

Hmmm, that's true I guess. It's just my gut reaction. Was the youth of Scotland voting out then?

Depending on who you believed! Some of the rhetoric was getting offensive at times. Much like now, truth and integrity was a bit hard to find within the two sides.

 

[User62651]

In a side point not related to the poster above, it's depressing me that the "older" generation could swing the vote against the desires of the youth. the youth will be living through the outcome for a significantly longer time period, and surely if they wish to see the country remain part of the EU then that's the important thing. People have constantly noted this is an ideological thing, not just an immigration, so surely the youth ideology should be prevalent as part of that.

I understand what you're saying but that's not workable, a vote needs to include everyone equally, democracy ain't perfect.

By this thinking Scotland would be independent now because the young people voted out, the grey vote swung it for staying in UK. Deciding on the basis of only one part of a population isn't right and it could be argued that older people, whilst protecting themselves and fearing change more as they age, have more experience and therefore perhaps better judgement in such things?

 

[USER1999]

You could also argue that if you don't own a house, or have a certain value of money invested in the UK, you shouldn't have a vote either. Add in those too young to know enough to have an opinion, those too old to remember their opinion, women, who are easily confused when allowed out of the house , dog owners, who are obviously insane, any one who owns a French car, or likes cheese.

 

[User62651]

You could also argue that if you don't own a house, or have a certain value of money invested in the UK, you shouldn't have a vote either. Add in those too young to know enough to have an opinion, those too old to remember their opinion, women, who are easily confused when allowed out of the house , dog owners, who are obviously insane, any one who owns a French car, or likes cheese.

Boris?

 

[Hacker Khan]

I know which side I'm choosing :thup:

Thinking about it though, I suppose working on the assumption that anything that Trump, Hopkins and Farage think is a good idea is probably a very bad one that will inevitably lead to more intolerance and hatred in this word, is as good a way of making up your mind as any...

 

[SocketRocket]

Anyone else think that if the result is BREXIT but by a narrow margin, say 53-47 or less, that some euro-fudge will evolve which means the UK ultimately will not leave the EU?

There is nothing I have more confidence in Brussels about than their ability to play the long fudging game. What shape the fudge will take is beyond my pay-grade but I have a sneaking suspicion that tactics will be deployed to obfuscate until a better climate means a re-run is plausible.

It has happened several times before - Ireland over Lisbon, and more recently the Swiss referendum over immigration which has been sidestepped.

That cant happen, one vote is enough either way. If the EU came out before the 23rd and said 'OK, we have this free movement wrong and you can decide your own immigration levels" then it would turn the tide but that just isn't going to happen.

 

[SocketRocket]

a) your argument around the infrastructure isn't a fact, sorry.

b) I quite enjoy that your personal "i say it might not" holds such sway for you. Unless you're hiding some significant political/economic/business qualifications, then your certainty in your own opinion is exactly why the population shouldn't vote on matters like this. People (and i include myself and everyone on this thread) think they can absorb the full impact and come to a decision, when actually it's based on a number of personal assumptions/prejudices.



In a side point not related to the poster above, it's depressing me that the "older" generation could swing the vote against the desires of the youth. the youth will be living through the outcome for a significantly longer time period, and surely if they wish to see the country remain part of the EU then that's the important thing. People have constantly noted this is an ideological thing, not just an immigration, so surely the youth ideology should be prevalent as part of that.

a) the argument on the infrastructure is a fact right now and will be more so if we stay in. For example, it is physically impossible to build enough houses to cover the current immigration levels let alone future demand. The NHS cannot cope with the level of demand created by immigration at the current rate let alone the projected future levels in we stay.

b) You cant leave constitutional matters like this to businessmen and politicians only, they can only advice the people, do you prefer we throw away democracy, Oh! of course you do as you prefer a non elected elIte to control our lives.

Regarding your side point. How do you know most young people are in favour of Stay? I know quite a few who are strongly in favour of leave and in the televised debates I have seen it seemed like this also. Your comment on Older people is beneath contempt and typical of a growing xenophobia aimed at the older generation. Who else would you consider de-franchising as their voting patterns may not align with your own?

 

[IanG]

While I believe there's merit in what you state, Ireland over Lisbon resulted in some guarantees from the EU that appeared to be sufficient swing the vote in the subsequent 2nd referendum. This sort of 'compromise' might be attempted if the vote was marginally 'Out'. However, the EU has declined/refused to negotiate with Switzerland on the subject of immigration (the Swiss referendum was about whether the Swiss government should attempt to negotiate with the EU about immigration). As this also appears to be the biggest issue for the UK, I very much doubt there'd be any fundamental movement by the EU in the area of 'freedom of movement'!

I guess I meant that the political classes in Switzerland/Brussels found a way to work around the outcome of the referendum and maintain (more or less) the status quo.

 

[IanG]

That cant happen, one vote is enough either way. If the EU came out before the 23rd and said 'OK, we have this free movement wrong and you can decide your own immigration levels" then it would turn the tide but that just isn't going to happen.

I'm not so confident that the future would necessarily turn out that way. Just one scenario, 1% majority for Brexit , Cameron et al have to resign, Boris becomes PM and makes an arse of himself, vote of no confidence in parliament and Labour and disaffected tories etc vote down the government, new elections result in a hung parliament. Where are your negotiations now ? After 23.5 months the UK still has no negotiated exit deal with the EU. What happens next? Another scenario: someone cooks up some legal objection to the referendum results - doesn't matter what, just ties things up on courts all over Europe for long enough for a lot of water to pass under the bridge. Nothing concrete can happen until it is resolved.


Please don't take these scenarios too literally, with them I just try to illustrate that with an army of Sir Humphries and some political machinations in London & Brussels, things can be 'managed', feet can be dragged. Throw in a fig leaf or two concession from Brussels and who knows what can happen in 2 years.

 

[Foxholer]

I guess I meant that the political classes in Switzerland/Brussels found a way to work around the outcome of the referendum and maintain (more or less) the status quo.

Er... The EU simply stated that they would not negotiate! And that if Switzerland implemented quotas, then many bilateral agreements, that are linked to the freedom of movement concept, and are advantageous to Switzerland, would be frozen! There's now a movement (that has raised sufficient popularity) to have another referendum to overrule the one 'rejected' by the EU. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-swiss-eu-idUSKCN0SL27C20151027