EU Referendum

[SocketRocket]

All five Scottish Holyrood Parties support a remain vote.

And

 

[FairwayDodger]

The statement from the WTO is based on the proposition that we will not make a trade agreement with the EU and I doubt very much that will be the case as it will be mutually beneficial to reach an agreement.

This is a common assertion from you on this thread and, while I see the logic, it's just a baseless opinion. The counter baseless opinion is that it's not in the EU's interest to give a departing member as good a trade deal as they get through membership so while there may or may not be some kind of deal we'll still be worse off.

Both valid opinions and both pure speculation.

 

[SocketRocket]

This is a common assertion from you on this thread and, while I see the logic, it's just a baseless opinion. The counter baseless opinion is that it's not in the EU's interest to give a departing member as good a trade deal as they get through membership so while there may or may not be some kind of deal we'll still be worse off.

Both valid opinions and both pure speculation.

Of course it's an opinion Caren, how could it be anything else. I dont think it's a baseless one though and I put that point as I see it being in all parties best interest to make a trade agreement, even in a worse case scenario if we made no agreement then we could just declare ourselves a free trade zone and allow the EU to buy from us tariff free, if they wanted to apply restrictions to us purchasing their products then it would be damaging to them if we purchased less. An opinion but not baseless.

 

[FairwayDodger]

A good article on the guardian website today...

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/29/eu-fear-brexit-contagion

Which features this comment on socketrocket's favourite hypothesis...

The Outers commonly respond that EU leaders would ultimately swallow their anger and cut a special sweetheart deal for Brexiting Britain because it would be in their self-interest to continue trading with one of the world’s largest economies. However jilted the Germans felt, they’d still want to sell us their cars. However infuriated the French might be, they’d still want us to buy their cheese. This is a regular trope of Nigel Farage. Obviously, there’s some truth in it. But it is eclipsed by a much larger truth about our economic relations with the EU. Britain would have a lot more to lose from the absence of a deal, and the party with the more to lose typically comes out worse from a negotiation. Around half of British exports go to buyers in the EU. Only about 10% of exports from the rest of the EU come to Britain. That would leave us with a pretty feeble hand in a Brexit negotiation. Only two countries, Germany and the Netherlands, regularly have substantial trade surpluses with the UK. So they are the only two with much incentive to do a deal. Any one of the 27, including those countries that run trade deficits with Britain, would have a veto. That is why all the detailed analysis of what Brexit would entail comes to the conclusion that divorce negotiations would be extremely difficult, very protracted, terrifically tortuous and not positive for the British economy.

 

[SocketRocket]

A good article on the guardian website today...

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/29/eu-fear-brexit-contagion

Which features this comment on socketrocket's favourite hypothesis...

Andrew Rawnsley has an opinion to which he is entitled but it's not sacrosanct. Mines different as I have explained a number of times and I also have an entitlement to it.

Merkel needs to be very wary of intervention as one thing the British don't like is to be threatened or for a German Leader to tell us how we should live our lives.

 

[FairwayDodger]

Andrew Rawnsley has an opinion to which he is entitled but it's not sacrosanct. Mines different as I have explained a number of times and I also have an entitlement to it.

Merkel needs to be very wary of intervention as one thing the British don't like is to be threatened or for a German Leader to tell us how we should live our lives.

Indeed you are and I would never argue otherwise but neither is your opinion "sacrosant".

 

[Hobbit]

A good article on the guardian website today...

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/29/eu-fear-brexit-contagion

Which features this comment on socketrocket's favourite hypothesis...

Andrew Sparrow's article in the same paper relates what the cross party committee have said to both sides, i.e. That both have made ludicrous claims and counter-claims. For example, the Treasury report that households would be £4300 a year worse off is a million miles from the truth, as is the claim that the UK would save £350 million a week by exiting.

There's a small element of truth in both but the actual figures are way smaller...and the same is said of many of the claims. All have a basis in fact but have been spun way out of control.

The cross party committee have said both sides have done the UK and politics a huge disservice.

 

[FairwayDodger]

The cross party committee have said both sides have done the UK and politics a huge disservice.

I agree with this. The "debate" has been dreadful.

 

[SocketRocket]

Indeed you are and I would never argue otherwise but neither is your opinion "sacrosant".

Of course it's not.

 

[jp5]

There's a small element of truth in both but the actual figures are way smaller...and the same is said of many of the claims. All have a basis in fact but have been spun way out of control.

How can there be any truth in the £4300 a figure? It's a "forecast"!

(Not that the sending £350m is true either!)

 

[Doon frae Troon]

I agree with this. The "debate" has been dreadful.

Why do I not find it surprising that the two faces of the Tory Party are trying to outdo each other by telling downright lies and falsehoods.

I wonder if any of the current bunch of Tory 'leaders' will come out of this with any credibility and the Tories will have to look outside of cabinet for a new leader.
Don't forget that whatever the outcome of this EU vote there is still another four years of UK government from this shoddy shambles.

 

[Hobbit]

How can there be any truth in the £4300 a figure? It's a "forecast"!
!)

Actually, it's not a true forecast in the sense of what a family would lose. It's the twisting of what a drop in GDP might be in relation to every family in the UK.

A bit like saying EDF energy lost £240 million last year. That's £40 a person. There's no actual relation to each individual in the Uk and EDF's loss...

 

[SocketRocket]

What I have found distasteful in this lead up to the EU referendum is the stance taken by the Government. The fact they decided we needed a referendum means they must have believed our future in the EU was questionable and the Electorate should have a choice on Remaining or Leaving. They then make such a one sided case for Remaining that suggests things like anyone wanting to leave are economically illiterate, war mongers and devoid of any common sense. I still think that the people we have voted to lead us should be much better, instead of using the Civil Service machine to spin everything such that it fits their personal preferences they should have made a well balanced case, showing the realistic risks and benefits for both side of the argument and there are potential risks and benefits on both sides. As a Tory I have now lost all confidence in the likes of Cameron, Osborne and May, I think they are finished now whichever way the Referendum goes.

 

[FairwayDodger]

We're not having a referendum because the government thinks it's important for the country to have one. It was important to the Tory party, and nobody else, to put on their manifesto to stop their bickering over the issue during the general election. Stupid, though, as it only delayed the inevitable. Looks like none of them will emerge with any credit. Good!

 

[Foxholer]

...The fact they decided we needed a referendum means they must have believed our future in the EU was questionable and the Electorate should have a choice on Remaining or Leaving....

I'm certain that's not what 'they' thought. I believe they (the Conservatives) thought that the EU issue was endangering their likelihood to continue to govern/win elections, so a referendum was necessary/the best way to silence the opposition, both within and outside their party - specifically with the increased popularity of UKIP!

The rest of their tactics simply demonstrate the way governments (of all styles) work!

FWIW, Cameron has actually gone up in my opinion, as I have seen more of his overall work and been quite impressed. Never been a great fan of Osborne, who is prone to Budget gaffs. May seems too much like a poor/bad copy of Thatcher, with no sense of what she can/can't actually legislate for!

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Desicion time



Such a shame that both sides have been too busy with their childish behaviour towards each other that not enough facts have been given to voters to allow people to make an informed choice

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Desicion time

View attachment 19597

Such a shame that both sides have been too busy with their childish behaviour towards each other that not enough facts have been given to voters to allow people to make an informed choice

I cast my vote at this stage in the Scottish Referendum only for Brown, Cameron and Clegg to completely change the goalposts.
Might be worth hanging on to the last postal day to see 'whats occuring'

 

[Hobbit]

We're not having a referendum because the government thinks it's important for the country to have one. It was important to the Tory party, and nobody else, to put on their manifesto to stop their bickering over the issue during the general election. Stupid, though, as it only delayed the inevitable. Looks like none of them will emerge with any credit. Good!

Excellent post! Couldn't have put it any better.

I'm certain that's not what 'they' thought. I believe they (the Conservatives) thought that the EU issue was endangering their likelihood to continue to govern/win elections, so a referendum was necessary/the best way to silence the opposition, both within and outside their party - specifically with the increased popularity of UKIP!

The rest of their tactics simply demonstrate the way governments (of all styles) work!

FWIW, Cameron has actually gone up in my opinion, as I have seen more of his overall work and been quite impressed. Never been a great fan of Osborne, who is prone to Budget gaffs. May seems too much like a poor/bad copy of Thatcher, with no sense of what she can/can't actually legislate for!

I thought Cameron's WW3 threat was/is disgraceful, and he's taken a huge drop in my estimation. Osborne's budget gaffs show a level of ineptitude I wouldn't expect from a Chancellor. May is a mouth piece for the party, and has been quite disappointing through the whole debate.

As Doon says, expect some huge announcements in the final days. Its been an appalling debate...

 

[Doon frae Troon]

I think we are all coming to agreement that both sides are absolutely rubbish.

 

[PhilTheFragger]

An Alternative Ballot Paper