Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

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The vote tonight only takes leaving without a deal on March 29th of the table - we could leave without a deal on the 30th or thereafter !!

I assume that there are certain dates that are specified in the relevant legislation that you can officially leave on. So if the 29th is off the table then the next one will be whatever we negotiate with the EU. Assuming that is the way the vote goes on Thursday and we do manage to negotiate one. And I expect if we, or indeed any other member just says sod this we are leaving when ever they fancy it, they will be in breach of several treaties etc and I expect will become liable for various penalties.
 
I assume that there are certain dates that are specified in the relevant legislation that you can officially leave on. So if the 29th is off the table then the next one will be whatever we negotiate with the EU. Assuming that is the way the vote goes on Thursday and we do manage to negotiate one. And I expect if we, or indeed any other member just says sod this we are leaving when ever they fancy it, they will be in breach of several treaties etc and I expect will become liable for various penalties.

Only 1 date currently specified in the legislation, 29th March.
 
The vote tonight only takes leaving without a deal on March 29th of the table - we could leave without a deal on the 30th or thereafter !!

Government has more or less admitted it that if there is no deal, article 50 will be revoked and Brexit will not happen. Funny debate, SNP pouring plaudits on Tory MPs and letting anyone with their views intervening.
 
Government has more or less admitted it that if there is no deal, article 50 will be revoked and Brexit will not happen. Funny debate, SNP pouring plaudits on Tory MPs and letting anyone with their views intervening.

Where have they said that? Chances are that a no deal will be voted down and that they will then vote to ask for an extension of article 50. But between now and the 29th TMay could well come back and try a third meaningful vote with the option being vote for this or chances are there would be no Brexit. The DUP and ERG would then fall into line and once all the tory party are behind a deal it will then be a lot harder for others to oppose it as they immediately are seen as not enacting the will of the people when all the tory party wants to do that. And hey presto, deal agreed.

Even as someone who would be delighted if Brexit never happens I still am pretty sure it will. And it would not surprise me if a deal is agreed before the 29th.
 
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Where have they said that? Chances are that a no deal will be voted down and that they will then vote to ask for an extension of article 50. But between now and the 29th TMay could well come back and try a third meaningful vote with the option being vote for this or chances are there would be no Brexit. The DUP and ERG would then fall into line and once all the tory party are behind a deal it will then be a lot harder for others to oppose it as they immediately are seen as not enacting the will of the people when all the tory party wants to do that. And hey presto, deal agreed.

Even as someone who would be delighted if Brexit never happens I still am pretty sure it will. And it would not surprise me if a deal is agreed before the 29th.


Maybe I have just lost what little faith and optimism I had in our democratic system.
 
Really got to admire the deflection on to Labour’s position or the what Labour would do to get in to power etc, etc, blah, blah, blah.

We are in this mess because of the Tory Party and they have done everything people accuse Labour of doing to stay in power.

And when that argument fails, let’s use the Comrade Corbyn and the Abbott can’t count cards.

Time for people to recognise who’s got us in this mess and make them solely responsible.

The Tory party were never in control of Brexit. The referendum was a sop to the eurosceptic faction in the Tory party and to take the wind out of UKIP's growing popularity.

To a certain extent, parliament came together when agreeing to offer the public a referendum and to triggering Article 50, but without cross-party support it didn't matter what any deal looked like it was never going to fly - unless it included unicorns.

And May and Olly Robbins have made sure the deal is as unpopular as it could be.
 
The Tory party were never in control of Brexit. The referendum was a sop to the eurosceptic faction in the Tory party and to take the wind out of UKIP's growing popularity.

To a certain extent, parliament came together when agreeing to offer the public a referendum and to triggering Article 50, but without cross-party support it didn't matter what any deal looked like it was never going to fly - unless it included unicorns.

And May and Olly Robbins have made sure the deal is as unpopular as it could be.
I’m not sure if you are agreeing with me or blaming May and Robbins (tories) only. :)

Either way is out of Labour’s control.
 
Maybe I have just lost what little faith and optimism I had in our democratic system.

Stealing from someone cleverer than me on Twitter

'Any referendum can be either democratic or irreversible, but not both. Just as no parliament can bind a successor, it follows that no electorate can do either. Any democracy can change its mind at any time. Else it is not a democracy.'

So the question then is how long before an electorate can change it's mind? Does the outcome of the advisory referendum have to be enacted before the electorate can change it's mind on that matter? I don't really have an answer to those questions and I'm sure there are good arguments either side. But I think it is a bit more nuanced then just claiming if we don't leave come what may on the 29th March then democracy is dead.
 
No it doesn’t, only 1 Party has had total control over Brexit, to compare it to what happened in the past is irrelevant and a smoke screen.

You are guessing based your opinion of Labour that they would of been just as bad, you could be 100% right or 100% wrong.

The only fact though is, the tory party were totally in control.
We'll have to disagree then!

It was a poisoned chalice whoever picked it up! The EU's position woud have been exactly the same and the negotiations would have been just as fruitless! I defy anyone to show what 'better' leaving deal Labour or even a 'combined' team (or even ERG) could have negotiated.

The only 'party' that was (is) 'totally in control' was (is) the EU's negotiating team!

My reference to the Financial Crisis was purely to demonstrate 'who gets the blame' for such disasters, nothing more. Basically, folk want/need to blame someone for negative events and those who happen to be in government at the time are the obvious target!
 
We'll have to disagree then!

It was a poisoned chalice whoever picked it up! The EU's position woud have been exactly the same and the negotiations would have been just as fruitless! I defy anyone to show what 'better' leaving deal Labour or even a 'combined' team (or even ERG) could have negotiated.

The only 'party' that was (is) 'totally in control' was (is) the EU's negotiating team!

My reference to the Financial Crisis was purely to demonstrate 'who gets the blame' for such disasters, nothing more. Basically, folk want/need to blame someone for negative events and those who happen to be in government at the time are the obvious target!
I’d of had more respect for TM if she’d of told the EU were to stick their deal and showed some leadership, the last 3 months in particular have been a total waste of time, EU won’t budge, DUP won’t budge, SNP & Labour plans no good.
But not her fault and a poison chalice! Nah, she’s strung the Country along and embarrassed us.
 
Stealing from someone cleverer than me on Twitter

'Any referendum can be either democratic or irreversible, but not both. Just as no parliament can bind a successor, it follows that no electorate can do either. Any democracy can change its mind at any time. Else it is not a democracy.'

So the question then is how long before an electorate can change it's mind? Does the outcome of the advisory referendum have to be enacted before the electorate can change it's mind on that matter? I don't really have an answer to those questions and I'm sure there are good arguments either side. But I think it is a bit more nuanced then just claiming if we don't leave come what may on the 29th March then democracy is dead.


As I'm Welsh and not a Scot I was foolish to believe the "once in a lifetime" statement. Unless someone is about to organise a hit, I see me lasting quite a few more years.
 
...
If Labour is going to make a credible case to govern it has to stand on its own merits. It can’t simply say we will be dross, just not as much dross as the evil Tories.
So again. Are you happy with Labour’s role in Opposition in regard to Brexit and if not, why not? Fairly simple question to answer without deflection to be fair.
Leadership (and speech-making) issues notwthstanding, I believe Labour have done a pretty reasonable job of 'being an opposition'! They HAVE said what they would do differently to Tories; it's just that I don't believe they would be able to have any better actual results than the Tories have! And fwiw, if Labour was in government and Tories opposition, my view would be the same (Tories would be just as ineffective as Labour)!
 
Stealing from someone cleverer than me on Twitter

'Any referendum can be either democratic or irreversible, but not both. Just as no parliament can bind a successor, it follows that no electorate can do either. Any democracy can change its mind at any time. Else it is not a democracy.'

So the question then is how long before an electorate can change it's mind? Does the outcome of the advisory referendum have to be enacted before the electorate can change it's mind on that matter? I don't really have an answer to those questions and I'm sure there are good arguments either side. But I think it is a bit more nuanced then just claiming if we don't leave come what may on the 29th March then democracy is dead.
More that faith in Politicians is dead.
Politicians offered us the question and said they would enact the result.
If they can't give the majority what they voted for in, let's face it, the biggest thing in UK politics for years, then how can we trust them to do anything?
They can promise us anything in the run up to the next GE
How can we have any faith that they will do it?
Having "promised" to enact the leave vote, if they fail to do that they are slapping the faces of all those who voted to leave. Plus a number of those who voted to stay who have accepted the result.
 
We'll have to disagree then!

It was a poisoned chalice whoever picked it up! The EU's position woud have been exactly the same and the negotiations would have been just as fruitless! I defy anyone to show what 'better' leaving deal Labour or even a 'combined' team (or even ERG) could have negotiated.

The only 'party' that was (is) 'totally in control' was (is) the EU's negotiating team!

My reference to the Financial Crisis was purely to demonstrate 'who gets the blame' for such disasters, nothing more. Basically, folk want/need to blame someone for negative events and those who happen to be in government at the time are the obvious target!

I would argue that Labour has less extremes with regards to Europe in the party than the Tories do. Yes Labour do have a few hard line Brexiteers that would fit in perfectly in the ERG, but I would say they they would have been more likely to come up with a more 'party wide' agreed position to go to the EU with. And chances are that it would have been a more softer version what the EU would be more likely to accept.

All complete speculation of course but I've said it before, our major failing was that we never had an agreed position on what we actually wanted and TMay has tried and failed to please too many disparate factions, mostly in an attempt to keep the Tory party from fracturing over all this.
 
No HK, dont worry, leaving is not allowed under any circumstances... :) No vote against them has ever been allowed to stand, just as the UK Ref will not be.

The EU need to prove that it respects the voters, and democracy by voting against an extension if and when it comes to them.
 
The EU need to prove that it respects the voters, and democracy by voting against an extension if and when it comes to them.

Interesting how many "no deal" agreements have been passed today in the EU Parliament adding to the many others already been made that were read out in the debate today. Funny how these aren't published anywhere in the British media.
 
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