Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[bluewolf]

Hope she's OK.

She will be mate. Time is all that's needed. Thanks for the thought though 👍

 

[Sweep]

Absolute unqualified nonsense.....

We are currently, as part of the largest trading bloc in the world, in a very strong position. Once we leave, we're going to be a much smaller player,and therefore we won't be able to get the same deals that we currently enjoy.

And here's proof..... https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5ce60af2-2b90-11e9-a5ab-ff8ef2b976c7

And that's just Japan. What do you think America are going to do?

Now then, I've consistently provided proof of my points. All you're doing is having "faith". And that's the big problem. Brexit is like a cult.

Same as usual. It’s proved you are talking nonsense and when you can’t defend your nonsensical posts you revert to insults.
I note that you are unable to answer my questions demonstrating your own contradictions.
Just in case you are not aware. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world. We were a fair bit higher than that before we joined the EEC / EC / EU so being part of “the largest trading bloc in the world” may not have done us that much good, but we are where we are.
We (nothing to do with our membership of the EU) are a member of G8, G20, Nato, the Commonwealth and a member of the Security Council of the UN. We are a global and nuclear power. Brexit will change none of these things.
Just because the EU has done a deal with Japan and Canada does not mean, in any way shape or form, that the UK cannot do equally good or better deals ourselves, especially with Canada as a Commonwealth member. You won’t be old enough to remember, but Britain turned its back on the Commonwealth to join the EU just as some Commonwealth members were about to become “tiger economies”, just so we could trade with countries like Luxembourg. Still it looks like the Commonwealth have forgiven us as they all seem to want to do a deal.
Now, back to the recent EU trade deals. You might want to consider why they are so recent and what the EU has been doing for decades.
In the case of Japan, what do you think they are going to say? We haven’t started negotiating yet. Do you think they are going to say they want a deal as good or worse than the one they have just agreed with the EU? If you take your logic, one might ask why Japan would want a deal with the UK at all? And yet, here they are saying they want a deal.
And you mention America. Obviously you only read posts in reply to yours, otherwise you would have seen my post of just a couple of days ago when I pointed out that the UK is the biggest single investor in the US which is the largest economy in the world. The US in the largest single investor in the UK. We have enjoyed a huge trading relationship for decades, long before the EU was ever dreamed up. And all without a trade deal. On WTO rules. You know, those things you are so scared of, that everyone else uses across the planet.
I note that you have gone into meltdown before we even know any details on us leaving. This is because the EU has forced the issue, refusing to discuss a trade deal until we have agreed the WA. This is by design and you have swallowed it. If they did as they should and agreed a deal at least in tandem with the WA, businesses across the EU and UK would have been assured and certainty would have prevailed. That is what a sensible, responsible government which puts its people first would have done. But that would have made Brexit seem so much less toxic to remainers like you, so to whip up the remain camp they refused to even discuss a deal with the worlds 5th largest economy right on its doorstep until the very last minute or even until it’s too late. All this at the same time as doing deals, without any conditions for FOM or superiority of law, with smaller economies on the other side of the world. The UK has consistently said it would like a trade deal. If one doesn’t materialise, it’s the EU’s fault. We buy much more from them than they buy from us. But they sell us very little we can’t get somewhere else. Even if we leave with no deal, it won’t be long before a trade deal will be agreed. We contribute an awful lot more to the EU than just cash in the form of being its second biggest net contributor.
And you talk about a cult. One thing cult leaders do is instil a belief amongst its members that they cannot survive in the outside world. That they are better staying within, where the cult can protect you, keep you safe from the big, bad world. Everyone hates you outside those walls, it’s better to commit suicide than leave. Sound familiar?
It’s not brexit that’s the cult. Brexit is us coming to our senses and leaving the cult. There is a big world out there. We know, we are a global player.

 

[bluewolf]

Same as usual. It’s proved you are talking nonsense and when you can’t defend your nonsensical posts you revert to insults.
I note that you are unable to answer my questions demonstrating your own contradictions.
Just in case you are not aware. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world. We were a fair bit higher than that before we joined the EEC / EC / EU so being part of “the largest trading bloc in the world” may not have done us that much good, but we are where we are.
We (nothing to do with our membership of the EU) are a member of G8, G20, Nato, the Commonwealth and a member of the Security Council of the UN. We are a global and nuclear power. Brexit will change none of these things.
Just because the EU has done a deal with Japan and Canada does not mean, in any way shape or form, that the UK cannot do equally good or better deals ourselves, especially with Canada as a Commonwealth member. You won’t be old enough to remember, but Britain turned its back on the Commonwealth to join the EU just as some Commonwealth members were about to become “tiger economies”, just so we could trade with countries like Luxembourg. Still it looks like the Commonwealth have forgiven us as they all seem to want to do a deal.
Now, back to the recent EU trade deals. You might want to consider why they are so recent and what the EU has been doing for decades.
In the case of Japan, what do you think they are going to say? We haven’t started negotiating yet. Do you think they are going to say they want a deal as good or worse than the one they have just agreed with the EU? If you take your logic, one might ask why Japan would want a deal with the UK at all? And yet, here they are saying they want a deal.
And you mention America. Obviously you only read posts in reply to yours, otherwise you would have seen my post of just a couple of days ago when I pointed out that the UK is the biggest single investor in the US which is the largest economy in the world. The US in the largest single investor in the UK. We have enjoyed a huge trading relationship for decades, long before the EU was ever dreamed up. And all without a trade deal. On WTO rules. You know, those things you are so scared of, that everyone else uses across the planet.
I note that you have gone into meltdown before we even know any details on us leaving. This is because the EU has forced the issue, refusing to discuss a trade deal until we have agreed the WA. This is by design and you have swallowed it. If they did as they should and agreed a deal at least in tandem with the WA, businesses across the EU and UK would have been assured and certainty would have prevailed. That is what a sensible, responsible government which puts its people first would have done. But that would have made Brexit seem so much less toxic to remainers like you, so to whip up the remain camp they refused to even discuss a deal with the worlds 5th largest economy right on its doorstep until the very last minute or even until it’s too late. All this at the same time as doing deals, without any conditions for FOM or superiority of law, with smaller economies on the other side of the world. The UK has consistently said it would like a trade deal. If one doesn’t materialise, it’s the EU’s fault. We buy much more from them than they buy from us. But they sell us very little we can’t get somewhere else. Even if we leave with no deal, it won’t be long before a trade deal will be agreed. We contribute an awful lot more to the EU than just cash in the form of being its second biggest net contributor.
And you talk about a cult. One thing cult leaders do is instil a belief amongst its members that they cannot survive in the outside world. That they are better staying within, where the cult can protect you, keep you safe from the big, bad world. Everyone hates you outside those walls, it’s better to commit suicide than leave. Sound familiar?
It’s not brexit that’s the cult. Brexit is us coming to our senses and leaving the cult. There is a big world out there. We know, we are a global player.

Ok, firstly, I didn't resort to insults. I just pointed out that your post was nonsense. And it was. As is the one dimensional misrepresentation of global economics that you've posted above. There are numerous rebuttals that could be posted, but it's a working week now and time is restricted. Safe to say that your recollection of the UK as "a fair bit higher" than the 5th largest economy is outlandish. Unless the term sick man of Europe was a. Ironic nickname. Still, don't believe me. Here's that left wing rag the FT to explain.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/202a60c0-cfd8-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377

And to respond to your theories regarding trade deals, we may currently have the 5th largest individual (and service based) Economy in the world, but we aren't bigger than the Trading Bloc that is the EU. So the chances of us getting a better are infinitesimal. As evidenced by reports out of Japan and South Korea. We know exactly what Nations like India want and I've already told you exactly what America want. Of course they are desperate to do deals with us, we're about be the only country in the world trading solely on WTO terms (and despite what you've been told, that is not a good thing, as this link to another Leftie rag, The Economist shows... https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp....-wto-terms-would-be-fine-wrong#ampf=undefined). The 5th largest economy is about to undergo a fire sale.
The rest of your post is irrelevant (except the petty digs. I loved those).
Neither of us are close enough to the sharp end of this really. We can only hope that reports like this one are untrue..
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.theweek.co.uk/fact-check/95547/fact-check-what-a-no-deal-brexit-really-means?amp

In the end, it's all about opinions I suppose. Time will tell which of us is right. Let's have a look at the trade deals as they gradually materialise shall we. We'll base our opinions on whether there are job losses or not, or Economic growth.

 

[Sweep]

Ok, firstly, I didn't resort to insults. I just pointed out that your post was nonsense. And it was. As is the one dimensional misrepresentation of global economics that you've posted above. There are numerous rebuttals that could be posted, but it's a working week now and time is restricted. Safe to say that your recollection of the UK as "a fair bit higher" than the 5th largest economy is outlandish. Unless the term sick man of Europe was a. Ironic nickname. Still, don't believe me. Here's that left wing rag the FT to explain.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/202a60c0-cfd8-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377

And to respond to your theories regarding trade deals, we may currently have the 5th largest individual (and service based) Economy in the world, but we aren't bigger than the Trading Bloc that is the EU. So the chances of us getting a better are infinitesimal. As evidenced by reports out of Japan and South Korea. We know exactly what Nations like India want and I've already told you exactly what America want. Of course they are desperate to do deals with us, we're about be the only country in the world trading solely on WTO terms (and despite what you've been told, that is not a good thing). The 5th largest economy is about to undergo a fire sale.
The rest of your post is irrelevant (except the petty digs. I loved those).
Neither of us are close enough to the sharp end of this really. We can only hope that reports like this one are untrue..
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.theweek.co.uk/fact-check/95547/fact-check-what-a-no-deal-brexit-really-means?amp

In the end, it's all about opinions I suppose. Time will tell which of us is right. Let's have a look at the trade deals as they gradually materialise shall we. We'll base our opinions on whether there are job losses or not, or Economic growth.

That’s a good one. “Your point is wrong but I don’t have time to prove it”.
The sick man of Europe was a jibe made at the effects of the Callaghan government which collapsed in 1979. Amazingly 7 years AFTER we joined the EU. In 1965 Britain was the 3rd largest economy in the world and the 4th in 1970. So I stand by my assertion that joining didn’t do us much good in that regard at least.
To say my outlining of Britain’s position in the world which was factual as “one dimensional” is just odd. The rest of my post is entirely relevant. You just can’t answer the points I made.
The point about nations like Japan and S. Korea wanting to negotiate deals with a non EU UK is that they want to deal with us. They want to negotiate a deal. It’s not a renegotiation because we don’t have a deal and that’s because we weren’t allowed to do one by the protectionist EU.
What fire sale? In your world if the EU does a free trade deal it’s wonderful (which it is). If the UK does one it’s a fire sale. Sorry, but this is just more “EU good, UK bad”. In your eyes, nothing the UK will do will be good enough and the EU can do no wrong.
And BTW, as an importer and exporter to and from both the EU and the ROW I am very much at the sharp end.

 

[bluewolf]

That’s a good one. “Your point is wrong but I don’t have time to prove it”.
The sick man of Europe was a jibe made at the effects of the Callaghan government which collapsed in 1979. Amazingly 7 years AFTER we joined the EU. In 1965 Britain was the 3rd largest economy in the world and the 4th in 1970. So I stand by my assertion that joining didn’t do us much good in that regard at least.
To say my outlining of Britain’s position in the world which was factual as “one dimensional” is just odd. The rest of my post is entirely relevant. You just can’t answer the points I made.
The point about nations like Japan and S. Korea wanting to negotiate deals with a non EU UK is that they want to deal with us. They want to negotiate a deal. It’s not a renegotiation because we don’t have a deal and that’s because we weren’t allowed to do one by the protectionist EU.
What fire sale? In your world if the EU does a free trade deal it’s wonderful (which it is). If the UK does one it’s a fire sale. Sorry, but this is just more “EU good, UK bad”. In your eyes, nothing the UK will do will be good enough and the EU can do no wrong.
And BTW, as an importer and exporter to and from both the EU and the ROW I am very much at the sharp end.

You didn't read the links did you?
It appears you didn't fully read any of my previous posts either.
I can only present the information. If you refuse to read it then I can't do much more can I?
Would you care to refute any of the links that I posted? Any of them. At all.

Oh, and one question. Do you think our economy now bears any resemblance to our economy in the 60's or 70's?

A brief explainer of the Sick Man of Europe label....

Throughout the late 1960s and 1970s, the United Kingdom was frequently called the "sick man of Europe", first by foreign commentators, and later at home by critics of the third Wilson/Callaghanministry, because of industrial strife and poor economic performance compared to other European countries.[9] This era is considered to have started with the devaluation of the pound in 1967, culminating with the Winter of Discontent of 1978–79, the period between the Three-Day Week in 1973-74 and the IMF bailout in 1976 is generally seen by Britons as one of the darkest periods in the country's modern history. At different points throughout the decade, numerous countries such as Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, and Greece were cited by the American press as being "on the verge of sickness" as well. In the summer of 2017, the United Kingdomwas again referred to as the "sick man of Europe" following the results of the supposed negative economic effects of the EU referendum the previous year.[10]


Oh, and one last thing. I'm getting pretty tired of the pathetic comments about how we Remainers think that the EU is always right and the UK always wrong. I'm as patriotic as anyone. I accept the EU is imperfect. Everything is. I strongly believe that we are better off as part of a larger group. I think that leaving will be hugely detrimental to us, both economically and socially.
Furthermore, I'd like to see anyone who has orchestrated Brexit and then subsequently profits from the fall of the Pound treated as a traitor.

 

[bluewolf]

@Sweep and others. I hope you don't mind if I take my leave from this thread (again 😂). I've made all the points I want to make. I'm sure you all disagree. Only time will tell who's right. In all honesty, it's quite tiring constantly responding to the same 4 or 5 people. I respect your position, but I personally think you're wrong. I'm 100% sure that you think the same of me. That won't change.

I will make a promise though. If I'm proven wrong I'll be big enough to come on here and admit it. If Brexit is a success I'll happily genuflect at your altar. If I'm right I'll probably be too busy tarting up my Honda Mad Max style so that I can get the last tins of beans from the co op. 👍😉

 

[Hobbit]

Some interesting data coming out from the EU's own economic forecasting team. Growth forecast has been shifted down from its original forecast. The ECB's forecast is at odds with the EU's economic dept in so much as its forecast is far darker.

Typically of the accuracy of forecasting, reality sometimes is very different. For example, energy costs by country are expected to rise by 2.4%. Wish someone had told the Spanish electricity provider that a 25% hike is a little excessive.

Unemployment here in Spain hit 18.8% last month, with 30% of under 25's unemployed. 85,000 people lost their job in Spain in January. That headline figure masks the regional differences. Like Italy there's a huge difference between the rich north and poor south.

There is a huge concern over Italy's attitude to debt repayments, and growing worries over Italy and Greece leaving the EU (can't see Greece leaving - the EU is bankrolling public sector spending). Junk debt in over half the EU countries, with bonds due for repayment expected to seriously underperform, is a major concern for the ECB.

Bizarrely, the EU's own economic team predicts no change in trade with the UK, and expects the status quo to continue with an equitable trade deal for both sides. The UK's growth forecast is expected at 1.2%, pretty much as predicted by the UK's own forecasters, which is the lowest in the EU.

 

[Foxholer]

...
Bizarrely, the EU's own economic team predicts no change in trade with the UK, and expects the status quo to continue with an equitable trade deal for both sides. The UK's growth forecast is expected at 1.2%, pretty much as predicted by the UK's own forecasters, which is the lowest in the EU.

This quote from the the Forecast Document should explain it...

'Given the ongoing ratification process of the Withdrawal Agreement in the EU and the UK, projections for 2019 and 2020 are based on a purely technical assumption of status quo in terms of trading relations between the EU27 and the UK. This is for forecasting purposes only and has no bearing on the talks underway in the context of the Article 50 process. Under this assumption, GDP growth is projected to remain weak at 1.3% in 2019.....'

https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/european-economic-forecast-winter-2019_en

So it's not 'predicts' but 'assumes'!

Btw. That quote (and the 1.3% figure) came from the Winter 2019 doc (published 7/2/19). It was 1.2% in the Autumn 2018 doc. The same 'assumption' was in that document. https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/economy-finance/european-economic-forecast-autumn-2018_en

Mind you, the 2018 doc had United Kingdom as a link in the 'by Country' section. The 2019 doc hasn't!

And on the subject of those forecast docs.....It seems that the growth in the 'new entrant' states is forecast to be significantly above that of older ones. The would seem to be a good thing all round - perhaps reducing (at least the increase in) the movement of people from those states to 'richer' ones.

 

[Sweep]

You didn't read the links did you?
It appears you didn't fully read any of my previous posts either.
I can only present the information. If you refuse to read it then I can't do much more can I?
Would you care to refute any of the links that I posted? Any of them. At all.

Oh, and one question. Do you think our economy now bears any resemblance to our economy in the 60's or 70's?

A brief explainer of the Sick Man of Europe label....

Throughout the late 1960s and 1970s, the United Kingdom was frequently called the "sick man of Europe", first by foreign commentators, and later at home by critics of the third Wilson/Callaghanministry, because of industrial strife and poor economic performance compared to other European countries.[9] This era is considered to have started with the devaluation of the pound in 1967, culminating with the Winter of Discontent of 1978–79, the period between the Three-Day Week in 1973-74 and the IMF bailout in 1976 is generally seen by Britons as one of the darkest periods in the country's modern history. At different points throughout the decade, numerous countries such as Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, and Greece were cited by the American press as being "on the verge of sickness" as well. In the summer of 2017, the United Kingdomwas again referred to as the "sick man of Europe" following the results of the supposed negative economic effects of the EU referendum the previous year.[10]


Oh, and one last thing. I'm getting pretty tired of the pathetic comments about how we Remainers think that the EU is always right and the UK always wrong. I'm as patriotic as anyone. I accept the EU is imperfect. Everything is. I strongly believe that we are better off as part of a larger group. I think that leaving will be hugely detrimental to us, both economically and socially.
Furthermore, I'd like to see anyone who has orchestrated Brexit and then subsequently profits from the fall of the Pound treated as a traitor.

I think I have pretty much refuted all the links you have posted.
The devolution of the pound was a Harold Wilson Labour government decision to bolster the pound against the rise of the US Dollar. Everything else you have stated happened after we joined the EEC/ EC / EU. So at the very best joining didn’t help, did it? All the other “sick men of Europe” were in the EU.
I am not sure what source google is taking you to, but I don’t recall the sick man of Europe jibe being levelled at the UK in 2017, but if it was it was clearly wrong, as all the economic data proves. TBH you don’t have to do that well to avoid the sick man title these days. Just read Hobbit’s post from this morning for a little taster on our competition. Or you can bury your head and believe the EU is the land of milk and honey.
You may well be getting tired of people accusing you of believing that the EU is always right and the UK is always wrong. But in truth that is what you post. I assume therefore that is what you believe. That, I am afraid, does not make you as patriotic as the next man. You have little faith in your own country and don’t believe we can prosper without the interference of others. I don’t mean this as an insult. It’s just the truth given what you post. Like many today you are more “European” than “British”. You are about as patriotic to the UK as I am to the EU. That’s fair enough. Patriotism is probably out moded these days anyway. But don’t claim you are a patriot when you post opinions that show you as anything but.

 

[Sweep]

@Sweep and others. I hope you don't mind if I take my leave from this thread (again 😂). I've made all the points I want to make. I'm sure you all disagree. Only time will tell who's right. In all honesty, it's quite tiring constantly responding to the same 4 or 5 people. I respect your position, but I personally think you're wrong. I'm 100% sure that you think the same of me. That won't change.

I will make a promise though. If I'm proven wrong I'll be big enough to come on here and admit it. If Brexit is a success I'll happily genuflect at your altar. If I'm right I'll probably be too busy tarting up my Honda Mad Max style so that I can get the last tins of beans from the co op. 👍😉

You will be back. You can’t resist. 😀
Anyway this thread won’t last without you. You are the only remainer left posting. I think we must have converted the rest. 🤔
C’mon. You can’t leave now. We are going for a forum record here. And you owe it to your cause. 👍😀

 

[Mudball]

So for a moment.. forget all the peeps in Westminister who everyone seems to agree are beyond repair.. forget if you are a Leaver or Exiter...

Mrs M asked me a simple question.. 'Do you want me to stock up on something before April?'. Irrespective of which way you lean on the debate, you will still need to eat, shower, drink, cook, plant etc. So the most fundamental question is ... to Stock or not to Stock... What advice are you giving the Mrs if she pops the question..

 

[IanM]

Great question, "do you believe what has been in the Press?"

- well, the one bit I actually know about has been sufficiently lied about in the press to such an extent, I am not worried.... and if we are all alive and have enough fuel to drive to Sunningdale in the summer, I'll tell you all about it!

 

[Sweep]

So for a moment.. forget all the peeps in Westminister who everyone seems to agree are beyond repair.. forget if you are a Leaver or Exiter...

Mrs M asked me a simple question.. 'Do you want me to stock up on something before April?'. Irrespective of which way you lean on the debate, you will still need to eat, shower, drink, cook, plant etc. So the most fundamental question is ... to Stock or not to Stock... What advice are you giving the Mrs if she pops the question..

Fair question but I wouldn’t ask her to stock up on anything. I don’t think there will be any shortages. I am fairly sure there will be some panic buying though and people will be pointing at empty shelves because of it.
Oh... hang on. Where do golf balls come from? I go through a lot of them.

 

[Mudball]

Great question, "do you believe what has been in the Press?"

- well, the one bit I actually know about has been sufficiently lied about in the press to such an extent, I am not worried.... and if we are all alive and have enough fuel to drive to Sunningdale in the summer, I'll tell you all about it!

As I said... nothing to do with my belief or not.. The question is how to respond to HID. Take a worst case assumption and we have panic buying/queues at Dover, and prices jump (for a month or so). This hits pockets and will get some serious bollocking from HID. She wont care about your Sunningdale plan as long as she can put food on the table on the 2nd week of April.

Fair question but I wouldn’t ask her to stock up on anything. I don’t think there will be any shortages. I am fairly sure there will be some panic buying though and people will be pointing at empty shelves because of it.
Oh... hang on. Where do golf balls come from? I go through a lot of them.

I do too (atleast when i am playing)... but I do have a stock of them in the garage too.

 

[Taz]

Hope we don't run out of San Miguel @ the club

 

[Bunkermagnet]

You are the only remainer left posting. I think we must have converted the rest. 🤔

Perhaps many of us can't be bothered with the shouting down and regurgitating of "facts" or "figures".
My opinion has not been changed, especially by this thread, but I see no point in taking any interest in this part of the forum.

 

[Sweep]

Perhaps many of us can't be bothered with the shouting down and regurgitating of "facts" or "figures".
My opinion has not been changed, especially by this thread, but I see no point in taking any interest in this part of the forum.

Oh. As remainers don’t seem to have stopped moaning for the past 2.5 years, I just thought you were converted.
Shall I put you down as a maybe? 😀

 

[Doon frae Troon]

I have been away on cultural business for a couple of days.

Does anyone know if Nigel Farage has left his new Brexit party yet.

 

[Foxholer]

I have been away on cultural business for a couple of days.
...

How's the hangover?

 

[Deleted member 16999]

Oh, and one last thing. I'm getting pretty tired of the pathetic comments about how we Remainers think that the EU is always right and the UK always wrong. I'm as patriotic as anyone. I accept the EU is imperfect. Everything is. I strongly believe that we are better off as part of a larger group. I think that leaving will be hugely detrimental to us, both economically and socially.
Furthermore, I'd like to see anyone who has orchestrated Brexit and then subsequently profits from the fall of the Pound treated as a traitor.

Well said, some people tend to confuse Patriotism with Nationalism.

The difference between patriotism and nationalism is that the patriot is proud of his country for what it does, and the nationalist is proud of his country no matter what it does; the first attitude creates a feeling of responsibility, but the second a feeling of blind arrogance.