Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[User62651]

Shortage of medicines eh? How so? The World’s top pharmaceutical companies are not European.

We also run a trade surplus of £4.3 billion in this sector.

You have to get it here and with new/unknown trade barriers, border queues and airspace issues to sort out upon leaving with no deal, that's the uncertainty, not if we can afford it.

edit: remember the fuel strikes in 2001 was it? People don't behave reasonably in times of shortage, survival instinct is to look after number one. Selfishness always kicks in, many people will bulk buy/hoard/steal/profiteer when supply falls way short of demand, even if that situation is just rumoured.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Shortage of medicines eh? How so? The World’s top pharmaceutical companies are not European.

We also run a trade surplus of £4.3 billion in this sector.

It was a tongue in cheek comment which you missed.
Point being made was that food will probably be more valuable than medicine.
Our learned Brexit minister just realising that we live on an island does not really fill us with confidence.

 

[IanM]

Yes, but I love the way "we still have to get it here" when we have a 4 bill surplus! (it's already here! Much of it in Brentford!)

 

[Hobbit]

If there was substantive evidence of the existence of unicorns - but there isn't. Some might tell me that unicorns exist but for all the world-wide exploration of most corners of the earth not a single unicorn has been found. I do not base things on the understanding of just one individual such as JJ - unlike Leave campaigners who will endlessly quote Minford, Dysn and Tim Martin - and relatively few others.

I do not wish the UK to leave. That was my starting position and it remains my position. My compromise would be what is often referred to as a soft Brexit - that Leavers might choose to call it Brino - well that is their issue. For me it would be a massive compromise.

Why do you keep bringing Unicorns into the debate. Everyone, on both sides of the debate, know there's no such thing AND no one has said there is. You're the one being extreme in your simile. As for not "basing things," in other words you'll only believe anything from the Reman side, nothing from the Leave side. There's enough intelligent people on both sides to come up with truths. Lets be honest here, you really don't believe George Osbourne told the truth do you? Well, do you? He was brilliant for the Leave side.

I too don't want the UK to Leave. Its causing me problems now and will get very much worse. Its costing me at least 12% on pensions transfers, and that will get worse. Its seeing a tightening up on Residencia's, Padron and tax registration here. Its a bloody disaster for me!! But at least I try and take a balanced view on the outcome.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Gordon Brown pledges Scots that he will make Westminster stand by their Brexit promises.
Full credit to him for not actually using the word Vow in case anyone remembers what he said in 2014.

I see the 'UK Oil' is now being touted as a Brexit bargaining chip.
Useful stuff that 'UK Oil'.
Much more valuable than that useless cursed Scots Oil.

 

[IanM]

They love Brown in Brussels ... and his mate Blair too.... Men of high integrity!

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Why do you keep bringing Unicorns into the debate. Everyone, on both sides of the debate, know there's no such thing AND no one has said there is. You're the one being extreme in your simile. As for not "basing things," in other words you'll only believe anything from the Reman side, nothing from the Leave side. There's enough intelligent people on both sides to come up with truths. Lets be honest here, you really don't believe George Osbourne told the truth do you? Well, do you? He was brilliant for the Leave side.

I too don't want the UK to Leave. Its causing me problems now and will get very much worse. Its costing me at least 12% on pensions transfers, and that will get worse. Its seeing a tightening up on Residencia's, Padron and tax registration here. Its a bloody disaster for me!! But at least I try and take a balanced view on the outcome.

A fabled animal that, like the brave new world promised by Leave on a return to when Great Britain was great!, may never actually have existed and 100% doesn't exist today (even though I can't 100% prove it).

Yes there are very intelligent people of the leave side so let's have some honest truths from them to the leave supporting public and the electorate in general from some of the leading proponents of leaving. So for instance Mr Gove - let's be having you follow the example of Jo Johnsson - or is he too much of an expert on transport and the impact that leaving would have. These are the same people who would have told you that the problems that you are already experiencing in respect of your pension were simply Project Fear. And they are not - they are real - today - and we haven't left yet. And yet there are so many saying that all will be fine if we leave without a deal - that in face of overwhelming opinion and forecasts based up solid grounding. And they claim that the government and the EU are in cahoots and working towards Mrs May failing to find an acceptable deal in the hope that as a result there will be a further referendum. We have heard endlessly that the EU need us more than we need them - that the EU needs a deal more than we do. So why then would they not be trying to find a deal that works for us both.

I'm sorry - but whilst the duplicity of the leading Leave proponents goes on I will not compromise on my view that leaving will be an utter disaster on so many fronts and I will do what I can to protect my family and the poorer of society from the vanity project of a few hard-line eurosceptics.. A few exploiting the fears and concerns that many have of the future, and that the right wing press convinced them over the years were the fault of the EU and that would be sorted were we to leave.

There is no deal worse than No Deal and no deal better than remaining.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Gordon Brown pledges Scots that he will make Westminster stand by their Brexit promises.
Full credit to him for not actually using the word Vow in case anyone remembers what he said in 2014.

I see the 'UK Oil' is now being touted as a Brexit bargaining chip.
Useful stuff that 'UK Oil'.
Much more valuable than that useless cursed Scots Oil.

Is that the same oil that would be running out in no time at all, and therefore might as well be put aside in respect of the projected finances of an independent Scotland?

 

[Deleted member 18121]

There is no deal worse than No Deal and no deal better than remaining.

I actually LOL'd at that. I'd ask for some proof of that statement....but I know and you know that there isn't a single remainer out there that can prove it.

 

[hors limite]

Point 1. The EU have proposed a budget increase of 3% on its current ‘take.’ Doesn’t sound too bad...."........until you realise that there are 10 countries that don’t contribute anything, and that increase has got to come from the net contributors. The figure given to the U.K. is €22bn. But then there’s the rebate. That’ll be the rebate that the EU is proposing to stop.

Point 2. First of all, do you actually know what federalisation is? Can you explain what federalisation is? Short version; central control. Italy recently proposed a budget which had spending within its GDP limits and within the EU’s rules. The EU have rejected it. Central control. And an EU army; why? The EU is a super-state, and to suggest otherwise is naive. Have a look at how many EU laws the U.K. has opposed and how times the U.K. has lost out in its opposition. That’s central control, and that is federalism.

Point 3. There’s business people and economists on both sides of the fence. Are both sides wrong? Even Mark Carney has admitted some of his forecasts were overly negative. George Osbourne predicted the sky would fall down, and even his own Treasury and a Commons Select committee called him out on his predictions. Neither side has total credibility.

Point 4. In April it was mooted that the U.K. would be invited to join the trading bloc that has the strongest growth rates in the world. On Oct 8th the PM of Japan confirmed that invite.

But splitting hairs with you, like Hogan, is pointless as you are completely brainwashed to believing in Armageddon. Personally, I think there will be problems and a dip but I don’t think the sky will fall down.

1.I have searched diligently and can't find a forecast that is anywhere near £22bn - Im finding £12bn and as for the rebate, you do not know that it would end.

2.Are you saying that the UK should always be on the winning side? Can you give me a couple of examples where the UK opposed and where the subsequent law had a significant negative impact?

3.This is simply ridiculous. The overwhelming weight of informed opinion is telling us that a hard or no deal Brexit will have a negative effect on growth, future investment and jobs.

4 You aren't responding to my point. If the Uk, unlike Germany, isn't making the most of the present trade opportunities outside the EU what magic wand will be waved by joining your " trading bloc".

I am not predicting Armageddon. However, we were told that frictionless trade with the EU would be a doddle - a lie. We were told that there would be a Brexit dividend for the NHS - a lie. We were not told that the divorce bill would come to a whopping £40bn. We were told that the rest of the world would be queuing up to sign trade deals. We have yet to see details of one.
Brexit was sold as something that would bring further prosperity and now that has been completely stood on it's head - we are now supposed to believe that it's a " price worth paying". It isn't.

 

[USER1999]

The divorce bill is due whether we leave or stay. To bring it up is irrelevant.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I actually LOL'd at that. I'd ask for some proof of that statement....but I know and you know that there isn't a single remainer out there that can prove it.

It is utter nonsense - and you know it - to ask for proof of the future. But it is possible to put considerable trust - and in fact belief - in predictions from many, many experts across all sectors - that are built upon solid foundations of knowledge and experience.

We are in the incredible situation where many who support leave are holding their position on no more of a basis than the future cannot be foretold 100% - there is no proof that X, Y and Z will happen so we will ignore that it might and call it out as Proiect Fear.

And that is frankly incredible because it goes against everything that we do in life and work - when we look ahead and try and work out what is likely to happen based upon our own knowledge and experience of the past. We makes calculated judgements and act accordingly.

It is very rare that I make very important decisions that will have very important impact on the life of myself or my family without ensuring I am very well informed, understand the risks and impact, and the likelihood any risk might materialise. And I make my decision accordingly. I do not just jump and hope.

I would prefer to act not in haste lest I have to repent at leisure.

 

[Deleted member 18121]

It is utter nonsense - and you know it - to ask for proof of the future.

Exactly my point - so lets get on with the result of the democratic vote and stop all this damn hot air!

 

[hors limite]

The divorce bill is due whether we leave or stay. To bring it up is irrelevant.

I am sorry but this doesn't make sense - you only pay the divorce bill if you leave. it can't be emphasised enough - there was no mention of a bill for £40bn by the Leave campaign.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Exactly my point - so lets get on with the result of the democratic vote and stop all this damn hot air!

So you are in the 'ignore all predictions no matter by who and no matter how well founded - let's just jump and see what happens' camp.

Sorry - that's just not good enough.

Nobody in life goes ahead with something they might want to do (but don't actually have to do) if they do not have much of a clue what the outcome might be. Especially when he is being told that what he is wanting to do - based upon all current and previous evidence and knowledge - is likely to turn out bad for him - and others. And that no matter how well it might turn out - it is just most very unlikely to be better than not doing it at all. And that actually he should maybe just pause to look at what he has, and realise that doing what he wants to do just isn't worth the risk.

 

[Dando]

I’m sure you would happily ignore any well founded predictions that didn’t suit your view!

Do you realise that predictions can be wrong no matter who makes them?

 

[Deleted member 18121]

So you are in the 'ignore all predictions no matter by who and no matter how well founded - let's just jump and see what happens' camp.

Not at all, I'm in the camp of I've read up on the subject pre and post vote and more than ever I feel we're better out of the EU.

Not sure what's so difficult to understand.

 

[Foxholer]

Exactly my point - so lets get on with the result of the democratic vote and stop all this damn hot air!

I believe that's exactly what May is trying to do!

Unfortunately, those who are required to 'approve' her actions are, because of 'common sense' (the remainers in Parliament) and/or idealogical naivety (quite a few Leavers) there's significant, if not overwhelming resistance for her plan!

Of course, the EU negotiating team is well aware of the 'weakness' of her plan and is, quite reasonably from their pov, making the most of her weakness!

She needs to start showing strength by sacking - or at least 'inviting to resign' - any 'non-believers' of her plan and get on with the task of negotiation! There does need to be some commitment from the Irish to back her plan (as the Irish 'border' is definitely a sticking point), so they (not just the DUP) need to be 'brought on board' in some effective way.

The entire charade is certainly likely to continue until the last minute however - that's simply the way such 'date-driven' events work! The old saying that 'if it wasn't for the last minute, nothing would actually happen' is most definitely true in situations like this!

 

[Hobbit]

1.I have searched diligently and can't find a forecast that is anywhere near £22bn - Im finding £12bn and as for the rebate, you do not know that it would end.

2.Are you saying that the UK should always be on the winning side? Can you give me a couple of examples where the UK opposed and where the subsequent law had a significant negative impact?

3.This is simply ridiculous. The overwhelming weight of informed opinion is telling us that a hard or no deal Brexit will have a negative effect on growth, future investment and jobs.

4 You aren't responding to my point. If the Uk, unlike Germany, isn't making the most of the present trade opportunities outside the EU what magic wand will be waved by joining your " trading bloc".

I am not predicting Armageddon. However, we were told that frictionless trade with the EU would be a doddle - a lie. We were told that there would be a Brexit dividend for the NHS - a lie. We were not told that the divorce bill would come to a whopping £40bn. We were told that the rest of the world would be queuing up to sign trade deals. We have yet to see details of one.
Brexit was sold as something that would bring further prosperity and now that has been completely stood on it's head - we are now supposed to believe that it's a " price worth paying". It isn't.

Just a quick reply.

Jan 17, last year, the EU commission announced its intention to end rebates. Germany have proposed a 10% increase to the EU 2021 to 2027 to cover the Brexit gap. The “frugal four” Western European countries are opposing it but the expectation is it will be at least 3%. It has just took me 30secs to find that.

There’s oodles of examples of how many times the U.K. has opposed an EU law. The rejection by the EU court is up to over 80%, from just over 70%. You’ll find the detail earlier in the thread, and on the net if you look. There’s a very detailed (Times) article on that. Took me 30secs to find that.

I’m not doubting there’ll be an impact on growth. Equally, all the predictions say growth will slow, not shrink. There will still be growth. And isn’t it a little strange that some EU and global businesses are still announcing further investment in the U.K. if it isn’t a good place to invest...

My trading bloc? What on earth are you on? Would you rather the U.K. wasn’t part of a trading bloc with the biggest growth rates in the world? An invite to join, not the U.K. asking them. But that doesn’t suit your argument does it.

As for your concern about U.K. trade outside of the EU. You do realise that exports to the EU has shifted from 53% in 2016 to 47% in 2018. Someone is managing to increase an already large trade number. And growth is up, i.e. it isn’t a shift in trading partners but an increase in business. But let’s not forget that 47% is a number that shouldn’t be dismissed. Losing 2% of that would cause a lot of damage.

And if you’d been following the process of membership and exit you will know that no trade deals can be announced nor signed till after Brexit. So why are you asking for the details of one?

I’m not dismissing the lies by the likes of Johnson and Farage, nor those of Osbourne and Cameron. And Mark Carney has already admitted he was too negative. Think about it, the Governor of the BoE has revised his estimates up.

 

[Hobbit]

I am sorry but this doesn't make sense - you only pay the divorce bill if you leave. it can't be emphasised enough - there was no mention of a bill for £40bn by the Leave campaign.

The divorce bill, which you say doesn’t make sense, is made up of the balance of payments for projects already started and the pension payments for retired EU employees.