Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[IanM]

After Brexit, some words "COULD" be permanently typed incorrectly...none of this was mentioned on the Referendum Ballot Paper. When questioned, Nigel Farage refused to guarantee an absence of typos post Brexit. He also failed to explain the post Brexit use of emojis on message boards. Typical.

 

[SocketRocket]

Not angry over JLR's boss, just feel he is playing the Brexit card too much. I was involved in planning production strategy for post-Brexit for the company I retired from. He's making a mountain out of a molehill. The "3 day" example was deliberately simplistic. I am well aware of how JIT works and how seasonal planning happens anyway. Why not call the Brexit-effect an extension of seasonal planning. FX issues where the parent company is outside either the UK or the EU has been there since forever.

As for house prices; lets hope they do come down by 35%. At least then the younger generation can get on the ladder. Two sides to every coin.

I dont understand why house prices would fall. As long as they are a scarce resource and in demand their price should increase. The only other reason would be a period of deflation and i am not aware of that being predicted.

 

[Hobbit]

I dont understand why house prices would fall. As long as they are a scarce resource and in demand their price should increase. The only other reason would be a period of deflation and i am not aware of that being predicted.

According to Mark Carney a No-Deal Brexit would see a run on the pound, increased inflation and a mortgage shortage. A Chequers deal, according to him, would see a £16bn lift in the economy. Not agreeing to it would, apparently, lead to a crisis akin to 2008.

As we know, Mark Carney has been the Treasury mouthpiece for a while, you could almost write his script based on what Ministers have said the previous day. Yet his predecessor, Mervyn King, has spoken positively about Brexit and the opportunities it affords. King's only criticism has been the lack of preparation for a No-Deal Brexit.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

According to Mark Carney a No-Deal Brexit would see a run on the pound, increased inflation and a mortgage shortage. A Chequers deal, according to him, would see a £16bn lift in the economy. Not agreeing to it would, apparently, lead to a crisis akin to 2008.

As we know, Mark Carney has been the Treasury mouthpiece for a while, you could almost write his script based on what Ministers have said the previous day. Yet his predecessor, Mervyn King, has spoken positively about Brexit and the opportunities it affords. King's only criticism has been the lack of preparation for a No-Deal Brexit.

I think Mark Carney said that the worst case scenario would be this...he did not say it would happen - in fact it is probably the 3sigma outlier stress test scenario that he is asking banks to assess how they might cope. Because in the very unlikely event (as he said) that such a scenario happened he wouldn't want to be the one being asked why nobody thought it might happen - as Queenie asked about 2008. He is in effect asking banks and the government to think the unthinkable - as it is his duty to do.

 

[Tashyboy]

That last sentance SILH, Could we'll be the case, others might well see it as " Remain" scaremongering again. I don't know the answers to this question, but did Carney forecast a best case scenario.

 

[Hobbit]

I think Mark Carney said that the worst case scenario would be this...he did not say it would happen - in fact it is probably the 3sigma outlier stress test scenario that he is asking banks to assess how they might cope. Because in the very unlikely event (as he said) that such a scenario happened he wouldn't want to be the one being asked why nobody thought it might happen - as Queenie asked about 2008. He is in effect asking banks and the government to think the unthinkable - as it is his duty to do.

Absolutely!

Unfortunately, too many people on both sides of the divide only seem to want to shout about the worst case scenario in an effort to further their own agenda. Being aware of it, and subsequently planning to mitigate the possibility is essential but shouting it from the roof tops as "this is what is going to happen" instead of "this is one of the possibilities" is both disingenuous and causes immediate damage to the economy. It also limits the scope of the negotiations as it provides leverage for the EU.

 

[Mudball]

That last sentance SILH, Could we'll be the case, others might well see it as " Remain" scaremongering again. I don't know the answers to this question, but did Carney forecast a best case scenario.

The BoE’s job while doing a stress test is to look at worst case scenario rather than a Best case sceanrio. As you will remember from the 2008 banking crisis, the worst case scenarios have domino impact which can spread in a matter of days. A 35% drop in equity can hit every one on the day they decide to re mortgage and heaven forbid they have a run on the GBP. Banks will not want to increase their exposure and will mean people move to SVR even though circumstances don’t change (assuming employment remains steady). So Carney is doing the right thing by looking at worst case scenario.. he is not saying it will happen just that it might happen.

Unfortunately unlike bad news, the good news scenario are usually slow moving. Equally the fiscal instruments to manage them are well know. So if house prices increase 35% because of a Brexit bonus, the BoE can manage lending via interest rate increase or increase in capital ratios etc.

He is just doing his job. Also top marks to him for agreeing to an extension. He may be a foreigner but he is true to his profession and staying put. Unfortunately can’t say much about the guys who got us into this mess and then ran away .. Cameron, Boris, Farage and their elk

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

The BoE’s job while doing a stress test is to look at worst case scenario rather than a Best case sceanrio. As you will remember from the 2008 banking crisis, the worst case scenarios have domino impact which can spread in a matter of days. A 35% drop in equity can hit every one on the day they decide to re mortgage and heaven forbid they have a run on the GBP. Banks will not want to increase their exposure and will mean people move to SVR even though circumstances don’t change (assuming employment remains steady). So Carney is doing the right thing by looking at worst case scenario.. he is not saying it will happen just that it might happen.

Unfortunately unlike bad news, the good news scenario are usually slow moving. Equally the fiscal instruments to manage them are well know. So if house prices increase 35% because of a Brexit bonus, the BoE can manage lending via interest rate increase or increase in capital ratios etc.

He is just doing his job. Also top marks to him for agreeing to an extension. He may be a foreigner but he is true to his profession and staying put. Unfortunately can’t say much about the guys who got us into this mess and then ran away .. Cameron, Boris, Farage and their elk

Ah - mustn't let good banking risk management get in the way of Project Fear...

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Lovely stuff 👍

 

[MegaSteve]

I reckon Carney is playing a blinder... Before the vote he predicted [in the event of an exit outcome] a drop in house values prompting [according to Cleggie] many to vote leave to potentially enable them to get on the housing ladder... He's now doing the same just in case there is a people's vote...

 

[drdel]

IMO Carney spends too much time making pseudo-financial but politically focussed pronouncements.

He is an intelligent man who is obviously well aware that his comments will be picked over and any chance a journalist can get they will twist and big up 'disaster'. His words greatly impact upon the value of sterling and the respect of the international community for the stability/ health of the UK: he would do well to keep his mind in gear but his mouth in neutral. His loose utterances fuel speculators and the likes of Moodys' who are too ready to encourage swings and twist the markets in order to make a fast buck

There was a time when the BoE and the CoE worked hard to be neutral voices unfortunately they now chase publicity and come out with soundbites as bad as politicians. At least politicians make no attempt at neutrality whereas these apparent, seemingly 'objective' bastions of Britishness are becoming unreliable commentators.

 

[Mudball]

Here is the news of the same meeting as reported by the FT.. yes he talks is the drop in property prices. But hang on.. in the 3rd paragraph there is a reference to him talking up the chequers plan as it will outperform all expectations.. Damn.. how could he..
Funny that none of the red mast rags did not report that part of the story..

 

[Old Skier]

Is see chilling is in ". " yet COULD isn't.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Scots blogger Grouse Beater calling Rees- Mog a 'Gangster Toff' made me smile and agree.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

IMO Carney spends too much time making pseudo-financial but politically focussed pronouncements.

He is an intelligent man who is obviously well aware that his comments will be picked over and any chance a journalist can get they will twist and big up 'disaster'. His words greatly impact upon the value of sterling and the respect of the international community for the stability/ health of the UK: he would do well to keep his mind in gear but his mouth in neutral. His loose utterances fuel speculators and the likes of Moodys' who are too ready to encourage swings and twist the markets in order to make a fast buck

There was a time when the BoE and the CoE worked hard to be neutral voices unfortunately they now chase publicity and come out with soundbites as bad as politicians. At least politicians make no attempt at neutrality whereas these apparent, seemingly 'objective' bastions of Britishness are becoming unreliable commentators.

Perhaps his is indeed a neutral voice calling out where he sees risk and benefit...and it seems he sees more risk out of uncertainty than he does benefit - and that is quite logical as whilst uncertainty can often bring benefit (it certainly does for the 'money' traders) - uncertainty always brings negative risk. And for as long as uncertainty remains, and risk mitigation plans remain unclear, that negative risk needs calling out.

 

[MegaSteve]

Excellent article in the Wetherspoons house magazine...

And, from the coverage I've seen, of the marches for a second vote, it's mostly older folk...
So, still looking like the younger folk can't be asked...

And and, when will broadcasters get it through their thick heads...
It's not the voters job to explain the whys/wherefores of anything...
That's the job of PAID politicians and bureaucrats...

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Probably just one of those amazing coincidences. If you compare a 1992 map of UK areas which had mad cow disease outbreaks with a 2016 map of EU referendum leave/stay votes they are absolutely identical.

 

[Foxholer]

IMO Carney spends too much time making pseudo-financial but politically focussed pronouncements.

He is an intelligent man who is obviously well aware that his comments will be picked over and any chance a journalist can get they will twist and big up 'disaster'. His words greatly impact upon the value of sterling and the respect of the international community for the stability/ health of the UK: he would do well to keep his mind in gear but his mouth in neutral. His loose utterances fuel speculators and the likes of Moodys' who are too ready to encourage swings and twist the markets in order to make a fast buck

There was a time when the BoE and the CoE worked hard to be neutral voices unfortunately they now chase publicity and come out with soundbites as bad as politicians. At least politicians make no attempt at neutrality whereas these apparent, seemingly 'objective' bastions of Britishness are becoming unreliable commentators.

Seems to me that you simply don't like hearing what he says!

To me, he seems the epitome of 'measured' pronouncements. It's those that selectively quote those pronouncements that are 'to blame' for any hype surrounding them!

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

And so today the Eurosceptic Desperation and Dissembling continues - as it seems that Bernard Jenkin backbench MP knows more about running a major automotive manufacturing company than the boss of a major automotive manufacturing company - when today he tells those wanting to hear that the boss of JLR is 'making it up' over the his statement that his company could lose £1.2bn a year as a result of Brexit. Either he thinks he knows more about running JLR than the boss of JLR - or he is calling him a liar.

'Making it up'? You couldn't make it up - unless you were a desperate eurosceptic - desperate to keep from those they have duped (and duped they have been - they are not stupid. Note - not all Leave voters are of 'the duped' - sadly - IMO - many knew what they were voting for) into their belief of a brave new world for the UK of the truth of the massive risk and cost to the UK associated with Brexit. And so it will continue.

And the Brexit secretary tells us that unless we get a deal we will renege on our agreement on the Exit payment - now isn't that going to paint us in bright glowing trustworthy colours for any considering a deal with us and in getting our WTO schedule agreed across the board.

But it is what many of the duped need to hear. As they need to hear it as the lack of any plan for a post-Brexit UK - or any coherent and well-founded strategy for the future of our country - becomes ever more obvious to us all.

 

[MegaSteve]

And so today the Eurosceptic Desperation and Dissembling continues - as it seems that Bernard Jenkin backbench MP knows more about running a major automotive manufacturing company than the boss of a major automotive manufacturing company - when today he tells those wanting to hear that the boss of JLR is 'making it up' over the his statement that his company could lose £1.2bn a year as a result of Brexit. Either he thinks he knows more about running JLR than the boss of JLR - or he is calling him a liar.

'Making it up'? You couldn't make it up - unless you were a desperate eurosceptic - desperate to keep from those they have duped (and duped they have been - they are not stupid. Note - not all Leave voters are of 'the duped' - sadly - IMO - many knew what they were voting for) into their belief of a brave new world for the UK of the truth of the massive risk and cost to the UK associated with Brexit. And so it will continue.

And the Brexit secretary tells us that unless we get a deal we will renege on our agreement on the Exit payment - now isn't that going to paint us in bright glowing trustworthy colours for any considering a deal with us and in getting our WTO schedule agreed across the board.

But it is what many of the duped need to hear. As they need to hear it as the lack of any plan for a post-Brexit UK - or any coherent and well-founded strategy for the future of our country - becomes ever more obvious to us all.

Not sure what the view is like from Oban nowadays but the horizon from where I was looking out from, on the coastline, last week was full of 'windmills'...
Apparently about 50% of their 'content' is sourced from continental Europe... That's an awful lot of Euro's...
Will EU business leaders be happy to see that income potentially slipping from their grasp?