Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Yet another technical not issued that people are getting hysterical over. Driving licences might not be valid. Very true, they might not. Just as the 73 technical notices issued by the EU show worst case scenarios, so do those issued by the UK. Both sides won't want worst case scenario, although some may well being that.

Who in their right mind believes that every single technical notice/worst case scenario will come to pass? Some will happen for both sides but the vast majority won't.

We export more medicine to the EU than we import. Of course the EU will want deaths on their head due to lack of medicine. So there's one technical notice that, although very valid, will get resolved. Overflying UK airspace from Schipol to New York, and from London to Saudi. There's a technical notice out for flying. That will get resolved. And guess what? Most of the technical notices involve costs/incomes. I wonder what that will mean for financial passporting? I wonder how VW will get their millions per year without financial passporting? Well, there's another one that will be resolved.

Some people need to take a breath and then look rationally, not hysterically, at the vast majority of technical notices. The vast majority of the worst case scenarios will be resolved.

to one degree or another I think you'd agree. The others will just be grim...

 

[woody69]

And after the first delivery is late by 3 days...

Well they say that it will cost them £1.25m per hour if they had to halt production, so 3 days x £1.25 million is quite a significant sum.

 

[Blue in Munich]

Sovereignty. Mind you I was listening to Mr Johnson opining about the Chequers Deal and telling us the it was worse than being in the EU (well blow me down gently) and we would lose sovereignty. But hold on a wee mo Mr Johnson - to lose sovereignty we first have to have some to lose. Of course this is just what the Brexit White Paper did state - that we never did lose our sovereignty even although it sometimes felt like like. Still - nice to hear a bit of - albeit unintentional - honesty from Mr Johnson.

Oh, so you voted Leave then? This must all be a wind up by you.

 

[drdel]

I am only raising what am hearing - by the responses I get you'd think I was making this stuff up...

And as usual - everything is a Red Herring according to the world trade and economics experts on the board. But why on earth should I believe a word of what I read from them - they are but experts and experts - especially economic and trade experts - get it wrong and don't know what they are talking about - unless that is his name is Patrick Minford or Rees-bloody-Mogg (who is an expert in everything)

If you took time to read stuff and then wrote your commentary in a less outlandish way with less insults and name calling thrown at the MPs and others with whom you disagree a more measured and logical debate might develop

 

[drdel]

Well they say that it will cost them £1.25m per hour if they had to halt production, so 3 days x £1.25 million is quite a significant sum.

Its not many months since they stopped production through lack of components (windscreens - from memory I think). In addition JLR has kept putting back promised delivery of their 'hybrid' products through lack of parts etc. It seems to me they are a bad example of JiT planning/management since they do not do a very good job at the moment so blaming Brexit is rather a convenient scape goat !!

 

[woody69]

Its not many months since they stopped production through lack of components (windscreens - from memory I think). In addition JLR has kept putting back promised delivery of their 'hybrid' products through lack of parts etc. It seems to me they are a bad example of JiT planning/management since they do not do a very good job at the moment so blaming Brexit is rather a convenient scape goat !!

Perhaps. I don't follow Jaguar production closely. All I can find in reference to them stopping production this year is due to a lack of water supply and an agreement with the water company to stop (which I imagine they were compensated for) and delay to the hybrid being due to them trying to sell the petrol and diesel vehicles in the showrooms, but not admitting that, rather it is just a rumour/assumption, but perhaps it is down to poor supply chain management or issues with parts. Who knows.

 

[Hobbit]

to one degree or another I think you'd agree. The others will just be grim...

And that is the aspect of your input to the debate that causes so much angst. Not it might be grim but it "will just be grim." How do you know this? Which areas will it be grim in?

In the last 2.5 years we've heard so much expert advice/predictions, from both sides, some of which have since been proven to be miles away from reality. There are so many experts from both sides of the argument telling us the sky will fall in... which side is telling all the truth? You, by your very belief that it "will just be grim," are blinkered to just which way will the cards fall. You will, in all probability be right in some areas but you will also be wrong in others.

 

[Old Skier]

Regarding the driving license, it has just been suggested that British motorist could face additional barriers when driving in the EU as the UK license won't be automatically recognised unless plans are put in place. Most likely we will have to purchase an international driving permit much like we do when going to somewhere like the states, or the UK government will instead fall back on the 1968 Vienna Convention on Road Traffic – a treaty introduced to facilitate international road traffic that Britain has agreed to but has yet to ratify. Hardly the end of the world, but just another little cost for "freedom"

Strange that you have had to get a permit for the US. My license has been good enough there and many other places around the world.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

And that is the aspect of your input to the debate that causes so much angst. Not it might be grim but it "will just be grim." How do you know this? Which areas will it be grim in?

In the last 2.5 years we've heard so much expert advice/predictions, from both sides, some of which have since been proven to be miles away from reality. There are so many experts from both sides of the argument telling us the sky will fall in... which side is telling all the truth? You, by your very belief that it "will just be grim," are blinkered to just which way will the cards fall. You will, in all probability be right in some areas but you will also be wrong in others.

Because if a dire worst case prediction is not fully or partially mitigated then if it comes t pass it will be grim - because it is worst case.

 

[hors limite]

John Lewis boss commenting on disappointing results cites a number of contributory factors from their "never knowingly undersold" pledge which bites into margins in a competitive market, to the Brexit fall in the pound and to the uncertainty. Raab, on the BBC then takes it upon himself to say" rather easy for a business to blame Brexit and the politicians rather than take responsibility for their own situation." It's just another version of "Project Fear" . The arrogance of Raab is bewildering.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Vince Cable making a right eejit of himself by trying to convince the Scots that they must support a peoples vote on the EU referendum.
But...….NO, not under any circumstances would HE allow a second Scottish referendum.
Totally out of touch.

 

[USER1999]

If I really wanted to know what was going on in a large company, the last person I would listen to would be the CEO. They tend to be very broad brush strokes, and have no idea how anything works on a daily basis. In my view, of course.

Similarly, if I really wanted to know the impact of a particular policy, Brexit, for instance, the last person I would ask is a polititian. They tend to be clueless headline hunters. Again, in my view.

 

[bobmac]

Similarly, if I really wanted to know the impact of a particular policy, Brexit, for instance, the last person I would ask is a polititian. They tend to be clueless headline hunters. Again, in my view.

We don't want views, we want facts about whats going to happen in the future.
There must be someone on here who has a crystal ball or a time machine who can see into the future and give us the facts.
No?
Thought not.

Because if a dire worst case prediction is not fully or partially mitigated then if it comes t pass it will be grim - because it is worst case.

And if my auntie had testicles, she'd be my uncle

 

[Hobbit]

John Lewis boss commenting on disappointing results cites a number of contributory factors from their "never knowingly undersold" pledge which bites into margins in a competitive market, to the Brexit fall in the pound and to the uncertainty. Raab, on the BBC then takes it upon himself to say" rather easy for a business to blame Brexit and the politicians rather than take responsibility for their own situation." It's just another version of "Project Fear" . The arrogance of Raab is bewildering.

Below is a quote from Europcar's current business statement. They increased revenue by 56% by buying a couple of competitors, and saw nett growth after spending of 3.4%, which also includes the changes in FX. If you look at the small changes in FX in the last year, the pound saw all its major falls over a year ago, any businessman quoting a falling pound after it had already fallen in the previous year is being disingenuous.

Raab isn't the sharpest knife, and not my cup of tea, but the truth lies in the middle ground.

For Caroline Parot, Chief Executive Officer of Europcar Mobility Group:
“We have made significant progress on the execution of our strategy during the first half of 2018 confirming our organisation into business units and the relevance of the acquisitions made in 2017. This is highlighted by a good set of operational and financial results with solid performances across our three major business units, which puts us well on track to deliver our 2018 financial objectives.

 

[Mudball]

I dont know why people are angry over the dire warning from the boss of JLR.
1) He obviously knows his business. The JIT and near-line inventory about ordering 3 days early comments are too simplistic a solution. You can bet your bottom dollar that the scenario has been modelled already by them as this part of standard supply chain scenarios. His warning will include inventory, market projections, finance availability, FX blah blah blah.. agree it might be his worse-case scenario, but then he needs to work with the hand he has been dealt. Accusing of him being a stooge for Indian owners is purely xenophobia and unnecessary. Remember a lot of our national infrastructure is owned by 'foreigners' - this includes power stations, trains, airports etc.

2) The same people who are accusing him, will be cheering the same comment were made by the head of VW or Boeing as it puts pressure on Merkel or Macron to get a good deal with the UK. Every coin has two sides.

I am sure someone is going to come along saying that Mark Carney is a sellout for saying house prices will be down by 35%... Again he is doing his job.

 

[drdel]

I dont know why people are angry over the dire warning from the boss of JLR.
1) He obviously knows his business. The JIT and near-line inventory about ordering 3 days early comments are too simplistic a solution. You can bet your bottom dollar that the scenario has been modelled already by them as this part of standard supply chain scenarios. His warning will include inventory, market projections, finance availability, FX blah blah blah.. agree it might be his worse-case scenario, but then he needs to work with the hand he has been dealt. Accusing of him being a stooge for Indian owners is purely xenophobia and unnecessary. Remember a lot of our national infrastructure is owned by 'foreigners' - this includes power stations, trains, airports etc.

2) The same people who are accusing him, will be cheering the same comment were made by the head of VW or Boeing as it puts pressure on Merkel or Macron to get a good deal with the UK. Every coin has two sides.

I am sure someone is going to come along saying that Mark Carney is a sellout for saying house prices will be down by 35%... Again he is doing his job.

Please don't take my comment and twist it. Absolutely nothing I wrote was xenophobic and neither did I say or infer JLR's exec was a stooge. My post and reference was to the way in which many foreign owners often ensure that accounts use different tax regimes to their advantage by legally 'moving' funds. Its prudent management but means that figure for 'national' performance and cost allocations are often not what they seem
.

 

[spongebob59]

I dont know why people are angry over the dire warning from the boss of JLR.
1) He obviously knows his business. The JIT and near-line inventory about ordering 3 days early comments are too simplistic a solution. You can bet your bottom dollar that the scenario has been modelled already by them as this part of standard supply chain scenarios. His warning will include inventory, market projections, finance availability, FX blah blah blah.. agree it might be his worse-case scenario, but then he needs to work with the hand he has been dealt. Accusing of him being a stooge for Indian owners is purely xenophobia and unnecessary. Remember a lot of our national infrastructure is owned by 'foreigners' - this includes power stations, trains, airports etc.

2) The same people who are accusing him, will be cheering the same comment were made by the head of VW or Boeing as it puts pressure on Merkel or Macron to get a good deal with the UK. Every coin has two sides.

I am sure someone is going to come along saying that Mark Carney is a sellout for saying house prices will be down by 35%... Again he is doing his job.

More project fear from Hammonds puppet.

 

[Kellfire]

Why has the title of this thread never been corrected? It's phoenix, not pheonix.

 

[Hobbit]

I dont know why people are angry over the dire warning from the boss of JLR.
1) He obviously knows his business. The JIT and near-line inventory about ordering 3 days early comments are too simplistic a solution. You can bet your bottom dollar that the scenario has been modelled already by them as this part of standard supply chain scenarios. His warning will include inventory, market projections, finance availability, FX blah blah blah.. agree it might be his worse-case scenario, but then he needs to work with the hand he has been dealt. Accusing of him being a stooge for Indian owners is purely xenophobia and unnecessary. Remember a lot of our national infrastructure is owned by 'foreigners' - this includes power stations, trains, airports etc.

2) The same people who are accusing him, will be cheering the same comment were made by the head of VW or Boeing as it puts pressure on Merkel or Macron to get a good deal with the UK. Every coin has two sides.

I am sure someone is going to come along saying that Mark Carney is a sellout for saying house prices will be down by 35%... Again he is doing his job.

Not angry over JLR's boss, just feel he is playing the Brexit card too much. I was involved in planning production strategy for post-Brexit for the company I retired from. He's making a mountain out of a molehill. The "3 day" example was deliberately simplistic. I am well aware of how JIT works and how seasonal planning happens anyway. Why not call the Brexit-effect an extension of seasonal planning. FX issues where the parent company is outside either the UK or the EU has been there since forever.

As for house prices; lets hope they do come down by 35%. At least then the younger generation can get on the ladder. Two sides to every coin.

 

[drdel]

Why has the title of this thread never been corrected? It's phoenix, not pheonix.

I'm ahead of the game: .its from the new No Deal Brexit dictionary.